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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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stealthology

Member
Jan 24, 2013
467
642
Hawaii
There's literally a 0-2% chance of this tax reform passing, so if removal of the EV credit is tied to that you can stop worrying.

As a Tesla shareholder you would welcome it though. TSLA is almost through all their credits and certainly would be by the time it became law.

Bill should pass by Christmas. 0-2%.. alright..
 

JRP3

Hyperactive Member
Aug 20, 2007
19,742
44,092
Central New York
TSLA -$24 in one day. At this rate, we would be $0 before semi unveiling. I wonder if the semi event will be cancelled/delayed again.. Hmmm..
screen-shot-2016-06-12-at-2-17-21-pm.png

The story behind the ‘false’ Tesla suspension complaints to NHTSA
 

DragonWatch

Small FootPrint
Aug 22, 2016
1,025
3,394
Mother Earth (Grapeview, WA)
How big of an impact will an immediate end to the $7,500 tax credit make on Tesla sales (S, X, 3)? Definitely didn't think we'd encounter this..

So IF this happens, let's see:

EPA shift to reduce science lead thinking
Trump's Coal prop-up
Trump's possible import tariffs on solar panels
GOP takes EV tax credit away

Hmmm.......I wonder what could be going on here.........

I'd cancel my two M3 reservations if the tax change was immediate. I'd wait for Gen2 of the M3, or M-Y.

I would like to say, the impact would be minimal, but @Big Dog provides an interesting perspective.

The tipping point for us to go for the X, from our M3 reservation, was the 100D. From the beginning, when we placed our M3 reservation, I had no hopes of ever seeing the $7,500. I grabbed my wife’s hand as I jumped over the cliff reaching for the keys to our new MX ~ opps fob; my wife was very concerned about price tag.

I had to laugh the other day as my daughter handed me the keys to her 2006 Prius (handed down to our daughter), and asked if I remembered how to drive it. The real laugh was driving up a hill when my five year old grandson asked me if I remembered how to drive the Prius:-( Part of my point is that we only got about half of the tax incentive on that 2006 Prius and I lived to talk about it. When we bought our 2010 Prius, there was no tax incentive ~ we were satisfied with the first one.

The bigger point is that people that really care about the environment, new technology, alternative fuel vehicles or anti-establishment will buy the Tesla vehicle regardless of the incentive. Some people buying the current EVs are doing so because it meets their range, comfort and price requirements. Some are using the current EV as a placeholder for the Model 3.

The fossil fuel crushed the SolarWorld twice in history and they are trying, trying to do it once again. However, this time the people as a whole are better educated and people like me are already doing their damnedest to counter balance things.

This is not the only law impacting Tesla, just ask a Texan about their right to purchase a Tesla MS, MX, or an M3 online.

I also think, with laws like Texas, they will drive up sales; because the people will want the experience and defy the man.

And, unlike Texas, some states already have tax incentives for EV car purchases. Unfortunately Washington is not one of them:-(

History may prove me right, read about our prohibition era.
 

justin w

Member
Oct 30, 2017
62
-117
none
The semi unveiling/event is not even important. It doesn't drive stocks up. What drives stock up is MASSIVE PRODUCTION + MASSIVE BUYERS.

They can't even get a simple compact car assembly line running so its dumb to focus on SEMI's at this point... they got so many bottlenecks coming from left and right that they need to solve right now..
 

hoang51

Member
Aug 22, 2013
878
796
NoVA
The semi unveiling/event is not even important. It doesn't drive stocks up. What drives stock up is MASSIVE PRODUCTION + MASSIVE BUYERS.

They can't even get a simple compact car assembly line running so its dumb to focus on SEMI's at this point... they got so many bottlenecks coming from left and right that they need to solve right now..

It's not important if your assumption of the event is all known and nothing is unexpected.
 

Big Dog

Active Member
Mar 7, 2016
1,534
1,527
Irvine, CA
The bigger point is that people that really care about the environment, new technology, alternative fuel vehicles or anti-establishment will buy the Tesla vehicle regardless of the incentive.

I submit that is the very definition of a niche market. Not the hundreds of thousands of vehicles that Elon (and the bulls) envision.
 
Apr 14, 2013
839
4,159
Fort Pierce, FL
Bought that dip.
Wonder how shorts many will save face and bail (sarcasm)
Credits going away only firms up Tesla's lead as pointed out. (still think its a small chance till Tesla's credits run out)
Delivery window of 3 slid November-January for premium and reg battery to "Early 2018". I expect we exit 2017 @ 1000 M3 per week and see MS/MX back up to 2k per week. Blow out Q4 for deliveries with firmed up guidance at announcement of Q4 delivery #'s pointing to the 5k M3 per week run rate at end of Q! '18.

TE showing signs of life. its...... alliiive

Love these opportunities.

Fire Away!!:cool:
 

gene

Supporting Member
Feb 11, 2013
2,226
11,809
Santa Barbara, CA
I too, would probably cancel my single reservation if the tax credit was eliminated promptly. I'd wait for the Model 3 to mature a bit.
Not me. I'd still buy the Model 3's we have on reservation. My son still has his awful VW TDI, waiting to give it back to VW as soon as his 3 is near (we have a lousy beater Prius collecting dust in case his TDI breaks down, yet again, before his Model 3 arrives). Lastly my wife drives a Leaf we have but the range is annoying to her. So, we need two new cars. They have to be EV, they have to have some decent range, and they need Supercharger access. The $7500 federal incentive is really nice, but in any event, the Model 3 is our best choice. I can't wait to get that damn VW TDI (worse reliability ever in my 45 years) and the miserable to drive Prius outta' my driveway!
 

Curt Renz

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2013
6,455
83,131
USA
TSLA had what appeared to by a high volume V-shaped washout at a low of $292.63 after nearly ninety minutes of trading this morning. That shove to the bottom likely would have been due to weak longs being shaken out and short sellers trying to encourage them. Since the rebound, the price has shown stability in the high $290’s.

A rise above $300 during the power (final) hour would not be surprising. If that occurs, the market may deem that the worst is past and allow TSLA to open strong tomorrow.
 

Zhelko Dimic

Careful bull
Jan 17, 2016
1,542
7,064
Toronto, Canada
Well.. last time I picked up shares was around $170; at the start of 2016. Nobody was expecting it to go that low back then. I remember that time as the SP kept dropping day after day.

I still hold these shares (buy and hold).
If it trully goes to $230, I will tap my HLOC line of credit (secured by home), and borrow some 500K this time to put in TSLA.
Last time I've done it was Feb '16 around SP=$150 for $200K, and it made me 150% profit since. That was one of the moves that got me out of the hole from over-leveraging beforehand.
 

elasalle

driVIN(188xx) it !!
Jan 26, 2016
4,071
21,813
VA
If it trully goes to $230, I will tap my HLOC line of credit (secured by home), and borrow some 500K this time to put in TSLA.
Last time I've done it was Feb '16 around SP=$150 for $200K, and it made me 150% profit since. That was one of the moves that got me out of the hole from over-leveraging beforehand.

When did you leverage to 120-200%? Was it just few days back? Based on your previous posts I thought you were on sidelines due to Model X related SP drops?

just curious.
WYW (Wish you Well)
 

Zhelko Dimic

Careful bull
Jan 17, 2016
1,542
7,064
Toronto, Canada
I submit that is the very definition of a niche market. Not the hundreds of thousands of vehicles that Elon (and the bulls) envision.
I was in a very long line in Canada on the Day 1 to reserve M3, AND we didn't have significant incentive at the time, AND we are paying 35% more. But we do that for BMW too, so perhaps not a valid argument.

Anyhow, there was a long line of ppl to reserve M3, so focus on $7500 is mistaken. It will have an impact, but by offering car at $35K, rather than $65K, you open lots more of the market, with or without $7.5K incentive.
 
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larmor

Active Member
Oct 27, 2014
2,192
5,566
Westlake, TX
Bought that dip.
Wonder how shorts many will save face and bail (sarcasm)
Credits going away only firms up Tesla's lead as pointed out. (still think its a small chance till Tesla's credits run out)
Delivery window of 3 slid November-January for premium and reg battery to "Early 2018". I expect we exit 2017 @ 1000 M3 per week and see MS/MX back up to 2k per week. Blow out Q4 for deliveries with firmed up guidance at announcement of Q4 delivery #'s pointing to the 5k M3 per week run rate at end of Q! '18.

TE showing signs of life. its...... alliiive

Love these opportunities.

Fire Away!!:cool:
If the market is sensitive to number of M3 produced, could be a wild ride, because last i checked the slope of a sigmoid curve gets pretty steep very fast...
 
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