I appreciate your thoughts here. I'm confused about your experience though. You said you rolled your $220s to $280s anticipating a rebound by spring 2017. We sure did get quite the rebound and then some by spring 2017. Your $280s would have been extremely profitable by then. What am I missing? What actually happened?If you shift substantial portions of your portfolio based on “having a pretty good idea” it will probably bite you eventually. That applies to both decreasing the time remaining and to increasing the strike prices. I bought a lot of J18’s $220’s when the SP was $160 and $170. When Tesla announced that they were pulling the M3 production ahead and the SP decreased I thought that was backwards. How could they possibly miss it badly enough to be in worse shape than not trying? So I rolled my $220’s to $280’s. Before I did that I considered all of the potential catalysts and thought that “the SP will probably go up by the spring of 2017”. Huge mistake! I could have easily gotten out of the $220’s profitably for most of the time I held them. So please be careful increasing your leverage on options to try to capture more money based on short term trading. I decided that my big mistake was doing that based on thinking that the SP would probably increase”. Now I believe that I should not even purchase more than a small lottery ticket play with options unless I am extremely confident that they will increase in value enough to make a substantial profit well before they expire.
Before you change your option strategy please ask yourself two questions:
1. Are you completely confident that the SP will increase enough 3-8 months before they expire to make this strategy profitable?
2. If you are so confident what has changed to increase your confidence that the options will be profitable before they expire? I said changed because if you were that confident why didn’t you have that additional leverage before?
If they didn't take any time to learn about the company, the way it's CEO is extremely well known for overly optimistic projections, and the high likelihood of schedule slips on the way to eventually meeting all planned volumes then I don't feel sorry for them.understood... but think about what those bond purchasers were told during the dog-and-pony show just 3 months ago... do you think this is what they had in mind for their 90 days later?
ev tax credit on the chopping board
is this fake news? lol.
Apparently the EV incentive was just cut off, according to Zero Hedge. Congressman Bishop of UT ends it.
Well.. last time I picked up shares was around $170; at the start of 2016. Nobody was expecting it to go that low back then. I remember that time as the SP kept dropping day after day.
I still hold these shares (buy and hold).
So IF this happens, let's see:How big of an impact will an immediate end to the $7,500 tax credit make on Tesla sales (S, X, 3)? Definitely didn't think we'd encounter this..
Trying to estimate delays and cross-check them against words of Tesla execs are silly attempts.Maybe the new dash makes a RHD model easier...(no second screen to install?)
Agreed with 250K, maybe a touch more, maybe a touch less if they screw up. That's ok.Ya think? The reality is that Tesla may double total unit production in 2018 YOY. That's pretty good for a manufacturing company. Repeat that in 2019.
The problem is that this growth doesn't work for SP or any rational evaluation of ROI. So its time to shift gears and talk about Tesla's lead in autonomous driving.
I going optimistic and predicting that Tesla will sell 250,000 total vehicles in 2018. They will need to have some good luck to pull it off.
No doubt would be huge boon for Tesla if tax credit went away. Probably bad for short term stock price, though.
Contact your congressional representative and two US senators. I did.