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The Semi unveiling was fantastic, and I enjoyed the conversations that followed.

Dating, well I found mine forty-four years ago, and just lucky I did not mess it up. I can not offer advice, again just lucky I did not mess mine up.

While it may have been discussed earlier; I perceive the cost of establishing and building up the assembly line for the roadster will not require additional stock options or need for loans/bonds. I am guessing that the deposits/reservations for the basic of $50K and $250K for the founders option will provide a major shot in the arm as Tesla moves from prototype, testing to production.

Additionally, the nuclear capable windshield is something that should be integrated in the S, and X down the road. If I had, had that type of hatchback glass on our X, my lunch stop in Stockton might have been less eventful.

I would like the option, down the road to upgrade my X from the 300 mile range to say 600 mr, and maybe a more improved CPU. We love the car, and would be happier just upgrading as opposed to trading in the car for a newer model. Just saying, and just saying we really like/love the car.
 
It was said before, that Porsche should just stop modifying the VW Supercharged fossil fuel engines. The Porsche assembly line workers and mechanics need to mail in their resumes to Tesla and hope there is some kind of retraining program available to assist transitioning workers from fossil fuel to EV technology. The roadster program will need a few good men/women and experience may help:)

This was also said before, that the Tesla Semi unveiling was Elon’s “Warning Order” to the world that EV technology is here to stay. Yes, I think you called it a Smack Down:)

Dyson did not even get out of the box:-( Boy/girl that had to hurt.
 
It was said before, that Porsche should just stop modifying the VW Supercharged fossil fuel engines. The Porsche assembly line workers and mechanics need to mail in their resumes to Tesla and hope there is some kind of retraining program available to assist transitioning workers from fossil fuel to EV technology. The roadster program will need a few good men/women and experience may help:)

This was also said before, that the Tesla Semi unveiling was Elon’s “Warning Order” to the world that EV technology is here to stay. Yes, I think you called it a Smack Down:)

Dyson did not even get out of the box:-( Boy/girl that had to hurt.

Porsche's Mission E is DOA, no, DBA (Dead Before Arrival). Porsche should carefully look at their situation. I still think their best business approach would be using every dollar to buy Tesla stock, close their own shop, and become a passive investor. I know it sounds painful.

Look at Nokia and Blackberry (RIM), they should have bought Apple stock and closed their own shop when they saw iPhone.
 
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Porsche's Mission E is DOA, no, DBA (Dead Before Arrival). Porsche should carefully look at their situation. I still think their best business approach would be using every dollar to buy Tesla stock, close their own shop, and become a passive investor. I know it sounds painful.

Look at Nokia and Blackberry (RIM), they should have bought Apple stock and closed their own shop when they saw iPhone.

Not that it ever happens, but they could also kneel, kiss the ring, and hope that Tesla license their battery and electric drivetrain technology to them.
 
I would like the option, down the road to upgrade my X from the 300 mile range to say 600 mr, and maybe a more improved CPU. We love the car, and would be happier just upgrading as opposed to trading in the car for a newer model. Just saying, and just saying we really like/love the car.

I suspect that the labor required to change out the battery and related will make this never be an option, at least from Tesla and with a warranty, the likes of wk057 might pull it off. This is assuming one with twice the range can be fit into the same package due to advancements, or even 50% more range, whatever you get from chemistry improvements - ignoring the whole 2170 vs 18650 issue.. The faster display CPU upgrade is probably less invasive but still unlikely for similar reasons. If they did offer an upgrade package, I imagine it would look like the upgrade for Roadster 2.0/3.0 in terms of pricing, which is to say, not cheap, with a long lead time.

Between the costs and the labor involved, I think it's unlikely you'll see such an upgrade offered. You'll probably have to settle with trading in your first gen X for a second gen X (or whatever we end up calling it). If they hold trade-in value half as well as Tesla likes to think, then it might be cheaper than a Roadster 2.0/3.0 style upgrade to just trade it in ...
 
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We are seeing a revolution in the auto industry, yes I know Tesla has been at this awhile:) But, Lutz and all the Bears are forgetting to kick the tires:) Lutz and Friends were absolutely correct the automotive highway is being remapped.

Unlike the movie “Mrs Robinson” referring to plastic; I want you to think of modules. For example, we have know for years that most automakers find one engine that works fantastic and then builds several models around it. Anyone can build seats, a windshield, wiper blades or what have you. The difference is not in the tires, fuel, or water/fluid used in the radiator.

Lutz talked about fleets of individualized cars or pods running ever which way ~ lose.

Technology is changing our fuel source, human vs AI driving, quality, and so much more.

Google is out there creating a driverless software program; if Apple is, they have been iQuiet on the topic. Other than Tesla, no big name auto manufacture is out there commanding the lead on a driverless/autonomous driving. If manufacturers take autonomous driving as a module, then it is perceived as a module. Just like tires, they pick a brand and include it with the end product. Yes, I know other manufacturers are trying, but have they got the on the road database that Tesla or Google has amassed?

Outside the garage, where can you charge your EV if it is not a Tesla? Traditional automakers based on fossil fuels are addicted to just producing modular cars of every make and model without regarded to a gas station. You bought the car, now find a gas station. In fact, when I first began buying cars, if there was a gallon in the tank you considered yourself lucky. I would talk about other alternative fuel sources, but then there are none making themselves readily available. Back in the late ‘60s I took a couple of college art classes. One piece I turned in was exploring drugs, which I knew nothing about, I was goodie two shoes, a square, out of it. . . anyway, I used a dark cork board background and attached a syringe, banana peel, and a spoon. I think I got a “D” and a lecture on my ignorance of the drug culture. Guess what, that is how I view the auto manufacturers today, the are making failed attempts to shift from fossil fuel to electric. They are clueless and highly resistant to making the shift in technology. If you buy an electric car from, oh pick an auto manufacturer, where are you going to charge your car from your garage in Olympia, WA to Sacramento, CA? Where?

Okay, you know most of that right? But Lutz said. . . Fine, pick an auto manufacturer of your choice and let’s build your car. Let’s say GM to make Lutz feel better. GM goes to China or Tesla to purchase their battery pack/chase. If they choose China, their system will need to conform with Tesla chargers. If they buy from Tesla, it probably costs a few bucks more ~ isn’t that how the business world works? If they do not conform to Tesla standards, they will have to install their own charging stations ~ oh dog poo. They had ample time to build them a Gigafactory. Now GM wants to add Autopilot ~ oops, I mean have autonomous/humanless driving. Where do they turn? Google, or maybe in desperation it is Tesla ~ better price than Google and brand name “autopilot.” Now, there is no longer tax incentives, because congress opted out of that back in 2017 ~ oops:-( What Joe Auto now gets to purchase is a fossil fuel hand-me-down or totally modular car that any manufacturer can toss together. Every existing auto manufacturer stands a very big chance of going the way of the evaluationary dodo bird.

Tesla has brand name in EVs ~ period. Tesla, the original, is associated with electricity for over one hundred years. Tesla is now associated with 1.9 sec ~ 0 to 60, Semi’s EV 600 mile range, Falcon Wings and total comfort. I will never buy another brand car, or I will never buy another car period.

Did Elon say to hell with the M3? I do not think so, it is not in his DNA. No, Elon said there would be a period of hell his people would go through to crank out those 5K a week numbers. I think, based on passed experience Tesla will prevail. I think if Bears want shorting profits, I would start shorting ICE manufactures. That is where the red meat is. Bears, maybe you can tell me why do you enjoy the dying salmon? Personally, I like fresh meat and salmon. Lutz and Friends are telling you already hashed over/already been chewed stuff and dreaming they might be the winners. If you really read their message; it is like listening to island people stating water rise is due to erosion and denying the sea level is rising. Do you want a half baked modular car or a Tesla through and through technically advanced car? Kick the tires.
 
I suspect that the labor required to change out the battery and related will make this never be an option, at least from Tesla and with a warranty, the likes of wk057 might pull it off. This is assuming one with twice the range can be fit into the same package due to advancements, or even 50% more range, whatever you get from chemistry improvements - ignoring the whole 2170 vs 18650 issue.. The faster display CPU upgrade is probably less invasive but still unlikely for similar reasons. If they did offer an upgrade package, I imagine it would look like the upgrade for Roadster 2.0/3.0 in terms of pricing, which is to say, not cheap, with a long lead time.

Between the costs and the labor involved, I think it's unlikely you'll see such an upgrade offered. You'll probably have to settle with trading in your first gen X for a second gen X (or whatever we end up calling it). If they hold trade-in value half as well as Tesla likes to think, then it might be cheaper than a Roadster 2.0/3.0 style upgrade to just trade it in ...

Stop with the facts already, I was just saying I really, really love my car ~ okay:)
 
We are seeing a revolution in the auto industry, yes I know Tesla has been at this awhile:) But, Lutz and all the Bears are forgetting to kick the tires:) Lutz and Friends were absolutely correct the automotive highway is being remapped.

Unlike the movie “Mrs Robinson” referring to plastic; I want you to think of modules. For example, we have know for years that most automakers find one engine that works fantastic and then builds several models around it. Anyone can build seats, a windshield, wiper blades or what have you. The difference is not in the tires, fuel, or water/fluid used in the radiator.

Lutz talked about fleets of individualized cars or pods running ever which way ~ lose.

Technology is changing our fuel source, human vs AI driving, quality, and so much more.

Google is out there creating a driverless software program; if Apple is, they have been iQuiet on the topic. Other than Tesla, no big name auto manufacture is out there commanding the lead on a driverless/autonomous driving. If manufacturers take autonomous driving as a module, then it is perceived as a module. Just like tires, they pick a brand and include it with the end product. Yes, I know other manufacturers are trying, but have they got the on the road database that Tesla or Google has amassed?

Outside the garage, where can you charge your EV if it is not a Tesla? Traditional automakers based on fossil fuels are addicted to just producing modular cars of every make and model without regarded to a gas station. You bought the car, now find a gas station. In fact, when I first began buying cars, if there was a gallon in the tank you considered yourself lucky. I would talk about other alternative fuel sources, but then there are none making themselves readily available. Back in the late ‘60s I took a couple of college art classes. One piece I turned in was exploring drugs, which I knew nothing about, I was goodie two shoes, a square, out of it. . . anyway, I used a dark cork board background and attached a syringe, banana peel, and a spoon. I think I got a “D” and a lecture on my ignorance of the drug culture. Guess what, that is how I view the auto manufacturers today, the are making failed attempts to shift from fossil fuel to electric. They are clueless and highly resistant to making the shift in technology. If you buy an electric car from, oh pick an auto manufacturer, where are you going to charge your car from your garage in Olympia, WA to Sacramento, CA? Where?

Okay, you know most of that right? But Lutz said. . . Fine, pick an auto manufacturer of your choice and let’s build your car. Let’s say GM to make Lutz feel better. GM goes to China or Tesla to purchase their battery pack/chase. If they choose China, their system will need to conform with Tesla chargers. If they buy from Tesla, it probably costs a few bucks more ~ isn’t that how the business world works? If they do not conform to Tesla standards, they will have to install their own charging stations ~ oh dog poo. They had ample time to build them a Gigafactory. Now GM wants to add Autopilot ~ oops, I mean have autonomous/humanless driving. Where do they turn? Google, or maybe in desperation it is Tesla ~ better price than Google and brand name “autopilot.” Now, there is no longer tax incentives, because congress opted out of that back in 2017 ~ oops:-( What Joe Auto now gets to purchase is a fossil fuel hand-me-down or totally modular car that any manufacturer can toss together. Every existing auto manufacturer stands a very big chance of going the way of the evaluationary dodo bird.

Tesla has brand name in EVs ~ period. Tesla, the original, is associated with electricity for over one hundred years. Tesla is now associated with 1.9 sec ~ 0 to 60, Semi’s EV 600 mile range, Falcon Wings and total comfort. I will never buy another brand car, or I will never buy another car period.

Did Elon say to hell with the M3? I do not think so, it is not in his DNA. No, Elon said there would be a period of hell his people would go through to crank out those 5K a week numbers. I think, based on passed experience Tesla will prevail. I think if Bears want shorting profits, I would start shorting ICE manufactures. That is where the red meat is. Bears, maybe you can tell me why do you enjoy the dying salmon? Personally, I like fresh meat and salmon. Lutz and Friends are telling you already hashed over/already been chewed stuff and dreaming they might be the winners. If you really read their message; it is like listening to island people stating water rise is due to erosion and denying the sea level is rising. Do you want a half baked modular car or a Tesla through and through technically advanced car? Kick the tires.
Picking up on the last paragraph. I guess you saw this report on Samantha Bee the other day? Just as well these people cling to the fish symbol ... :rolleyes: But hey, it's Sunday.
 
The seven cent electricity isn’t an assumption. It’s a guarantee. To get the high charge rate you need to use Tesla megachargers and they are guaranteeing the price.

I dont get how 7c is such a stretch. I pay 10.3c at home, retail rates. I have some kind of plan where I get cheaper rates at night, but it doesnt seem to matter much as my rates dont change more then 1-2c throughout the day. And Yes, this includes supply and delivery, as both around 5c on average. Just to put that into context. If you are Tesla and you have the ability to create utility grade solar, you can easily supply power to a partner for under 7c. There are about a million ways to do it. The best and ideal way is to put panels directly on their facility and have net metering agreements with the utility which removes the needs for batteries. Where net mettering is not available then use Batteries. Does Tesla know where it can get panels for cheap? Prices have come down so much its nutz.. 1.77c in Mexico recently. There are also many places with laws on the books that will have utilities paying Tesla and its partners to generate an consume clean energy. See Srectrade.com for an example. I sell my SRECs for $170/MWh. Even though I generate and consume the electricity, they pay me for doing so. There is utility grade contracts as well as consumer.

Here is my prediction.. Tesla will use Ghromann to automated panel manufacturing and will never sell a single panel to consumers (or very low percentages). They will use them all for Utility grade micro grids and partner sites for charging on site. The consumer product will be the Solar tiles, though some might be deployed in shopping centers where tiles are today. They will get costs down to <2c/KWh installed for the panels. Batteries to match will add another ~3.9c on AVERAGE (Some will have net metering and will not require batteries) and the 7c fees for charging will allow for 30% GM. This is all averages so some places they might not have as good of incentives and some places they will not need batteries because of net metering and some places will have SRECs or similar programs and some will not. Some places will have onsite generation and some will be a swap with local utilities and be grid tied due to legal requirements for utilities to buy certain amounts of Clean energy. But on average, they will generate electricity for supercharging and megacharging at a cost of 5.9c and have 30% net operating margins on charging as a whole. Remember that retail charging for Model S3XY will still be around 15c or about what people pay at home, though I expect there to be much less consumer charging vs semi charging as the semi is 100% reliant on Tesla and most consumers will charge about 80% at home. That and each Semi is worth a minimum of 30+ S3XY cars in terms of total consumption, so 100,000 trucks = 3M S3XY vehicles in terms of consumption but 100% of the consumption will be provided by Tesla vs 20% for consumers or for every 100,000 trucks = 3M x 5 = 15M S3XY vehicles. A million semis would be 150M BEV vehicles equivalent, which is why Tesla is making a semi. There is no faster way to accelerate the change from Fossil fuels. A semi is not an option, its a requirement of the master plan.

Megacharging will be a massive income center and will have very high margins once the network is built out. At a ratio of 150:1 for charging compared to Autos, at 30% profit, its going to be massive, captive cash flows. Now people will chime in and say but its capital intensive and blah blah.. Well Semi does not work without charging, so its not optional. Its like saying you want to sell a vehicle but dont want to pay for the robots required to build the vehicle. Charging is not optional. One major difference is that its a captive audience, meaning they MUST CHARGE WITH TESLA! There are no other choices. Frankly, Tesla wouldnt be building out the charging network if someone else was already going to do it, but they aren't. So Tesla must do it. By doing so, Tesla will become the biggest Utility on the planet in less then 5 years.
 
looks like Wellington is buying into TSLA (1m shares so far)... well, I watched these guys buy up GPRO at $50 right before it burst while I shorted the stock to $15 (currently $8)... I think Wellington showing up is a sign.

I would have said that no one can be wrong 100% of the time, but then I noticed who was posting and realized that its actually possible for someone to be wrong 100% of the time.
 
I would have said that no one can be wrong 100% of the time, but then I noticed who was posting and realized that its actually possible for someone to be wrong 100% of the time.
you mean like when I suggested at $336 that a drop to the 200MA ($316) would be possible?... and then after rising in pre-market the next day... I got posts just like this heckling me and then the stock dropped to exactly $316. is that the kind of wrong you're talking about? how about the kind of wrong where after bouncing off $296... the stock was pinned to $306 for 6 days and then magically bounced from $300 to $316 in one day... and then the last pre-market trade after the semi unveil was $326.00 where then 5 minutes before the close on Friday was pinned at $316 but got pushed under $315 in the final minutes...

you mean like that kind of 100% wrong?... for like 4 months?
 
looks like Wellington is buying into TSLA (1m shares so far)... well, I watched these guys buy up GPRO at $50 right before it burst while I shorted the stock to $15 (currently $8)... I think Wellington showing up is a sign.

yep - Wellington got to $1+ Trillion assets under management buying into stocks that go down. Great logic... :rolleyes:

Your inability to tie facts together, and your repeated emotional swings, also explain how you ended up and stick with your TSLA short.
 
My prediction for Friday was up 12, then back down to up 6. It turns out it went up more than 12, then settled quickly into up 12, then dropped to up 6 by the end of the day. Of course, as usual, when I'm right, I don't play, and when I do play, I'm wrong, or at least play wrong.

Now, it's time for digestion. If we have no more information to go by, then I think future expectations will be similar to experiences with Model 3, so that will mean Model 3 experiences will double up response to Model 3 experiences + Semi expectations based upon how good Model 3 execution is.

So far, Tesla has had 3 successful models come out. Now they're on a 4th. If they get a track record of that 4th that is reasonable and similar to the first three (which actually means it has to be more mass-producible, something new), then that should bode well.

Then, it will bode much better if we start to see revenue enough to turn some numbers (like profit, pay down debt, self-fund expansion and development, etc.).
 
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I dont get how 7c is such a stretch. I pay 10.3c at home, retail rates. I have some kind of plan where I get cheaper rates at night, but it doesnt seem to matter much as my rates dont change more then 1-2c throughout the day. And Yes, this includes supply and delivery, as both around 5c on average. Just to put that into context. If you are Tesla and you have the ability to create utility grade solar, you can easily supply power to a partner for under 7c. There are about a million ways to do it. The best and ideal way is to put panels directly on their facility and have net metering agreements with the utility which removes the needs for batteries. Where net mettering is not available then use Batteries. Does Tesla know where it can get panels for cheap? Prices have come down so much its nutz.. 1.77c in Mexico recently. There are also many places with laws on the books that will have utilities paying Tesla and its partners to generate an consume clean energy. See Srectrade.com for an example. I sell my SRECs for $170/MWh. Even though I generate and consume the electricity, they pay me for doing so. There is utility grade contracts as well as consumer.

Here is my prediction.. Tesla will use Ghromann to automated panel manufacturing and will never sell a single panel to consumers (or very low percentages). They will use them all for Utility grade micro grids and partner sites for charging on site. The consumer product will be the Solar tiles, though some might be deployed in shopping centers where tiles are today. They will get costs down to <2c/KWh installed for the panels. Batteries to match will add another ~3.9c on AVERAGE (Some will have net metering and will not require batteries) and the 7c fees for charging will allow for 30% GM. This is all averages so some places they might not have as good of incentives and some places they will not need batteries because of net metering and some places will have SRECs or similar programs and some will not. Some places will have onsite generation and some will be a swap with local utilities and be grid tied due to legal requirements for utilities to buy certain amounts of Clean energy. But on average, they will generate electricity for supercharging and megacharging at a cost of 5.9c and have 30% net operating margins on charging as a whole. Remember that retail charging for Model S3XY will still be around 15c or about what people pay at home, though I expect there to be much less consumer charging vs semi charging as the semi is 100% reliant on Tesla and most consumers will charge about 80% at home. That and each Semi is worth a minimum of 30+ S3XY cars in terms of total consumption, so 100,000 trucks = 3M S3XY vehicles in terms of consumption but 100% of the consumption will be provided by Tesla vs 20% for consumers or for every 100,000 trucks = 3M x 5 = 15M S3XY vehicles. A million semis would be 150M BEV vehicles equivalent, which is why Tesla is making a semi. There is no faster way to accelerate the change from Fossil fuels. A semi is not an option, its a requirement of the master plan.

Megacharging will be a massive income center and will have very high margins once the network is built out. At a ratio of 150:1 for charging compared to Autos, at 30% profit, its going to be massive, captive cash flows. Now people will chime in and say but its capital intensive and blah blah.. Well Semi does not work without charging, so its not optional. Its like saying you want to sell a vehicle but dont want to pay for the robots required to build the vehicle. Charging is not optional. One major difference is that its a captive audience, meaning they MUST CHARGE WITH TESLA! There are no other choices. Frankly, Tesla wouldnt be building out the charging network if someone else was already going to do it, but they aren't. So Tesla must do it. By doing so, Tesla will become the biggest Utility on the planet in less then 5 years.
Thanks a bunch! Your explanation of SREC was a real eye-opener for me. :)
 
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