2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Sudre]

I think the 7 cents a kWh is from averaging out the wholesale cost of electricity being purchased off the grid plus (or actually minus) any green tech Tesla throws in. If I am purchasing my retail power for my house here in the midwest at 10 cents the grid wholesale price is probably around 5 cents maybe 7.

What I am curious about, because my trucker friends I asked for input from brought it up, is TARE weight. The total weight a 5 axle truck can weight without paying fines in the US is 80,000 pounds. What is the weight of the Tesla Semi tractor? If it weighs 5000-10000 pounds more than the diesel tractor then many long haul drivers will not be interested because it limits their options.

Day drivers will mostly be fine. Hauling chips or miscellaneous items to stores probably doesn't hit max weight. Tesla can still have thousands of customers in this area. I know the major beer company in my area runs truck after truck load of empty bottle from the plant out of town in to the plant in the city where the beer is made. This would be a really good option for them. Big plus if it ever become autonomous. Same route day after day... autonomous heaven right there.

 

[Ulmo]

And I'd like to see the calculation of how they can guarantee they can produce it for that, especially as on demand power. Maybe they will get there, but it's a prediction, and where will the locations be, how many of them, etc? It looks good as an advertisement to get the conversation started, but not solid enough to commit millions of dollars for a trucking company.

It's pretty simple when solar is already under 2 cents per kWh, and Tesla owns their own battery + pack factory AND solar cell factory, today, and Semi is over one year away in 2019. By then, solar will only be 1 cent per kWh.

Cheapest electricity on the planet is Mexican solar power at 1.77¢/kWh – record 1¢/kWh coming in 2019, sooner

Now their factories near Buffalo and Sparks are coming into focus, eh?

 

[mongo]

I think the 7 cents a kWh is from averaging out the wholesale cost of electricity being purchased off the grid plus (or actually minus) any green tech Tesla throws in. If I am purchasing my retail power for my house here in the midwest at 10 cents the grid wholesale price is probably around 5 cents maybe 7.

What I am curious about, because my trucker friends I asked for input from brought it up, is TARE weight. The total weight a 5 axle truck can weight without paying fines in the US is 80,000 pounds. What is the weight of the Tesla Semi tractor? If it weighs 5000-10000 pounds more than the diesel tractor then many long haul drivers will not be interested because it limits their options.

Day drivers will mostly be fine. Hauling chips or miscellaneous items to stores probably doesn't hit max weight. Tesla can still have thousands of customers in this area. I know the major beer company in my area runs truck after truck load of empty bottle from the plant out of town in to the plant in the city where the beer is made. This would be a really good option for them. Big plus if it ever become autonomous. Same route day after day... autonomous heaven right there.

Based on the two 0-60 numbers, tractor is about 20,000 lbs.

 

[JRP3]

If it weighs 5000-10000 pounds more than the diesel tractor then many long haul drivers will not be interested because it limits their options.

Only those who's cargo is limited by weight and not volume. I'm sure those transporting pillows and comforters will be quite interested

 

[MP3Mike]

Based on the two 0-60 numbers, tractor is about 20,000 lbs.

That puts it right in the range of a normal diesel tractor.

 

[dalalsid]

Nationwide average electricity price at industrial rates is 7.25c/kWh. A little solar + peak shaving will get it under 7. And charging trucks is industrial level power. Not sure why people are so surprised with the rate. Maybe Tesla has decided to not make supercharging a profit center. Or maybe they apply the gas station model. Make money from the store, not the gas.

 

[TMSE]

Tsla this BAMF seriously likely to ramp up between now and New Years
Don’t have to explain
Shorts r in deep trouble

Ramp as in M3 production? or stock price? If it is the stock price, do you see any indicators in the charts that indicate imminent stock price surge within the next 6 weeks? I am trying to reconcile what you see with @luvb2b 's observation about record levels of option open interest.

combined open interest in tesla options is nearing a record. except for one anomalous month, we are at a record. total of 1,300,000 contracts outstanding, which represent more than the total float.

this many options outstanding means sudden volatile moves are very possible with regularity. plan accordingly.

 

[madodel]

Hello.... Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Sudre]

Based on the two 0-60 numbers, tractor is about 20,000 lbs.

A Volvo diesel tractor is 13000-18000. The heaviest would be a full size sleeper.

From what I have read (Googled) the average tractor and empty trailer come in around 35000 pounds.
The average payload for 90% of the hauls in the US is around 40,000 pounds.
The extra 2-5K of a Tesla semi tractor would put the total at 80,000 which is right at the limit but still works.

In other words for Mr Market, this semi should be a good thing for Tesla and increase SP!

 

[jelloslug]

Hello.... Elon Musk on Twitter

What is really funny here is that in the game Grand Theft Auto V, there is a version of the Tesla Roadster in it where it gets a giant rocket engine strapped to the back of it.

 

[Krugerrand]

you mean like that kind of 100% wrong?... for like 4 months?

No, like the ‘next stop $270’ kind of 100% wrong for like 6? months.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Ramp as in M3 production? or stock price? If it is the stock price, do you see any indicators in the charts that indicate imminent stock price surge within the next 6 weeks? I am trying to reconcile what you see with @luvb2b 's observation about record levels of option open interest.

This black candle is extremely crucial
I’ll explain tomorrow or whenever I get more time
Going to watch Punisher

 

[Causalien]

View attachment 261517
This black candle is extremely crucial
I’ll explain tomorrow or whenever I get more time
Going to watch Punisher

Closed the gap and pierced through 200 EMA at the same time. A technically significant point that deserve to have the price level noted as future resist/support. I don't have my charting computer right now. But did it pierce through 200 sma?

Funny how this move was totally predictable with TA. Wish I can find a way to restore my old chart and see how all the prediction performed.

 

[MitchJi]

I suspect that the labor required to change out the battery and related will make this never be an option, at least from Tesla and with a warranty, the likes of wk057 might pull it off. This is assuming one with twice the range can be fit into the same package due to advancements, or even 50% more range, whatever you get from chemistry improvements - ignoring the whole 2170 vs 18650 issue.. The faster display CPU upgrade is probably less invasive but still unlikely for similar reasons. If they did offer an upgrade package, I imagine it would look like the upgrade for Roadster 2.0/3.0 in terms of pricing, which is to say, not cheap, with a long lead time.

Between the costs and the labor involved, I think it's unlikely you'll see such an upgrade offered. You'll probably have to settle with trading in your first gen X for a second gen X (or whatever we end up calling it). If they hold trade-in value half as well as Tesla likes to think, then it might be cheaper than a Roadster 2.0/3.0 style upgrade to just trade it in ...

That’s interesting, it’s exactly the opposite. The MS-MX packs are designed to support swapping.

They tried to make an affordable option available for the Roadster but the pack technology was so ancient that the best that they could do was to hand build packs. The MS-MX can easily take advantage of the latest cells and it’s extremely easy to replace the packs.

When Tesla has advanced cells you can pretty much count on them providing MS-MX pack upgrades at a reasonable price.[/B]

 

[MitchJi]

This black candle is extremely crucial
I’ll explain tomorrow or whenever I get more time
Going to watch Punisher

TT, you have some high strike priced J18’s?

If Tesla doesn’t nail their numbers at the beginning of January those will be toast. It might be a good idea to roll them to June 2018’s.

 

[MitchJi]

I think the 7 cents a kWh is from averaging out the wholesale cost of electricity being purchased off the grid plus (or actually minus) any green tech Tesla throws in. If I am purchasing my retail power for my house here in the midwest at 10 cents the grid wholesale price is probably around 5 cents maybe 7 cents.

That directly contradicts what Elon said (solar and Powerpacks).

It doesn’t make sense to contradict what Elon said without a very good reason and you don’t have one.

 

[Tslynk67]

That’s interesting, it’s exactly the opposite. The MS-MX packs are designed to support swapping.

They tried to make an affordable option available for the Roadster but the pack technology was so ancient that the best that they could do was to hand build packs. The MS-MX can easily take advantage of the latest cells and it’s extremely easy to replace the packs.

When Tesla has advanced cells you can pretty much count on them providing MS-MX pack upgrades at a reasonable price.[/B]

Agreed on the modularity, but until batteries are abundant I would expect Tesla to prioritise new vehicles. That's why they don't offer it now, IMO.

 

[Lhan]

The Megachargers with solar and Powerpacks is the start of Tesla as a utility.

 

[aubreymcfato]

The Megachargers with solar and Powerpacks is the start of Tesla as a utility.

This.
I'm starting to think (no actual evidence, beside some clues here and there) that Tesla Bought Solarcity mainly for internal production, meaning that they need a sugarload of solar cells/panels to put them on super & mega chargers, on GF roof, etc.

This would explain the incremental reduction of solar systems sold to customers, and the fact that they pulled of a solar roof that nobody else has so they can charge good margins on that (they can't on "normal" panels).

A huge percentage of the GF2 should then go to Tesla itself, so they can save money on buying electricity elsewhere, and actually go solar (which is actually their mission).

 

[TrendTrader007]

Closed the gap and pierced through 200 EMA at the same time. A technically significant point that deserve to have the price level noted as future resist/support. I don't have my charting computer right now. But did it pierce through 200 sma?

Funny how this move was totally predictable with TA. Wish I can find a way to restore my old chart and see how all the prediction performed.

200 SMA at $321.96 so yes
Black candle presages either big down or up move
My guess is up eventually