I like the way you are describing it, I'll have to agree that things do look more positive now than the last times the stock price was at these level. Lets observe how the market sees it, tho.
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I like the way you are describing it, I'll have to agree that things do look more positive now than the last times the stock price was at these level. Lets observe how the market sees it, tho.
Profit/(loss) right now is irrelevant. So are current margin. It's all about cash flow (managing CAPEX) and scalability. TSLA will go back up after news of a capital raise + new gigafactories. If it were me, I would want the next raise to be huge (and hopefully last), so I'm sure Musk is waiting for the volatility of SP to die down so he can base their next raise off the most reasonable market cap. I'd say up to $3b is fair game. Anything more may signal a lack of operational and strategic efficiencies.
But Elon Musk has a sound vision for managing supply/demand. I think he knows what he's doing from that perspective so I wouldn't worry about MS and MX sales projections tbh. They control supply right now so it's hard to gauge anything useful from those figures. I think both are amazing and if I had the $, I would purchase an MX.
In the meantime, shorts will have some time to gain some confidence back and convince themselves that the automobile revolution is not upon us. TE is a bonus. Solarcity is a drag but perhaps a useful growth catalyst down the road. Again, I trust Elon's vision with this.
Gl to all longs. I don't think SP will dip too much below where it is now, since the M3 projections are looking more and more likely and with it comes huge revenue streams. Remember, cost precedes revenue with the M3, so all the risk is how they execute in the next 8 months.
But Elon Musk has a sound vision for managing supply/demand. I think he knows what he's doing from that perspective so I wouldn't worry about MS and MX sales projections tbh. They control supply right now so it's hard to gauge anything useful from those figures. I think both are amazing and if I had the $, I would purchase an MX.
In the meantime, shorts will have some time to gain some confidence back and convince themselves that the automobile revolution is not upon us. TE is a bonus. Solarcity is a drag but perhaps a useful growth catalyst down the road. Again, I trust Elon's vision with this.
Gl to all longs. I don't think SP will dip too much below where it is now, since the M3 projections are looking more and more likely and with it comes huge revenue streams. Remember, cost precedes revenue with the M3, so all the risk is how they execute in the next 8 months.
I would also add that not only does the next 2-3 months not look like it will be dominated by negative bearish sentiment, but this run up wasn't really based on major hype or big product announcements either, leading many of us to conclude that it was driven mainly by slow and steady institutional accumulation.
Definitely agree. I think Q3 earnings was a significant derisking event and I think overall Q4 earnings also is a derisking event, as will capital raise be. Sometimes the reaction to these derisking events can be delayed since institutions space out their buying over weeks or months.
Yes, this is the biggest part of the answer. Another part of the answer is that with the higher volumes and with the increase in buying by longs, the shorts lost their ability to manipulate the SP. We saw the mandatory morning dip disappear, we saw capping activity fail more often than it succeeded, and the slow drift down into closing gave way to the second wind of buying by mid-afternoon. These changes in short activity had a profound effect upon the SP. Finally, I love the expression that TSLA is a manic-depressive stock, and down days tend to favor more down days and up days tend to favor more up days. I would say that overall TSLA is still in a manic phase and buyers will be ready to return once they're convinced that the SP has bottomed out from the Q4 ER dip.
Taking one giant leap backwards, one needs to consider the reasons why institutions started buying back in and shorts started to be less successful with their manipulations. It comes down to fundamentals. The institutions weren't going to buy more TSLA until the Tesla-SolarCity merger issue had been resolved, and once it was resolved, that roadblock disappeared. Shortly afterwards, we saw the positive Q3 ER; the presidential election resolved with a clear electoral college winner (could you imagine the Hillary and Trump's battle if the results were questionable and the effect a constitutional crisis could have upon the broader markets?), and finally we saw the gigafactory event for the media and big investors, which opened their eyes to the fact that the gigafactory would indeed begin generating revenues shortly. So, ultimately, it was these changes in both Tesla and the perception of the market about this being a good time to buy TSLA that led to the institutions buying in, the shorts losing their magic in manipulations, and the manic-depressive meter swinging to manic.
BTW, the signal that things had fundamentally changed was when the shorts, using all their tools, could not push TSLA below 180 and have it stick. Once the willingness of buyers to accumulate at 180 exceeded the ability of the shorts to manipulate the stock down any further, we had a clue that the momentum of TSLA had changed in a very important way.
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adiggs
Well-Known Member
"Many" is a minimum of 4, right?"One, two, three, many"?
I think it might be 5. One, couple, few, several, many!
Sudre
Active Member
I thought a hand-full was closer to 5.
One, couple, few, many, hand-full, half dozen, several, bunch, quite a few, a lot, more than I can count (with my hands), dozen
Larger counts are more like a butt-load, ton, bazillion, gagillian
RoadsterPlease
Member
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Old article!
Tesla's stock tumbles after Goldman Sachs downgrade
By Tomi Kilgore
Published: Oct 6, 2016 10:03 a.m. ET
Tesla's stock tumbles after Goldman Sachs downgrade
By Tomi Kilgore
Published: Oct 6, 2016 10:03 a.m. ET
Here is the new article. Same as last week. They think Model 3 will be delayed.
Goldman Sachs Downgrades Tesla Motors (TSLA) to Sell
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The M3 schedule being well on-track was the most important take-away from the earnings report. What are they smoking?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I'm actually pleasantly surprised that there haven't been more doubts about Tesla's meeting their production targets.
They say Model 3 is delayed because the unveil is in july and not in march. Same pattern as after Q3 numbers. TSLA goes up, then analyst and short sellers posting arcticles after articles.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Yes, GS downgraded the stock down to $185 back in October, then upgraded to Neutral and $190 on 1/5/2017, then now they are lowering it back to $185. I'm not sure what there is to "disagree" about.
Runarbt
Active Member
Nothing to Wonder about. They upgraded (when it had littel effect on SP) so that they could downgrade it if needed to "adjust" SP at a cruical(?) point, to try help their short buddies. (IMO)
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