2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[hoang51]

Either TSLA not doing a Cap Raise, OR GS not invited to the party ... bought some Jan 19 Leaps (320), sold some Jan 18 Calls (340)

I believe the last time there was a raise, GS was pumping the stock and thereafter TSLA did the raise. So it seems that there's no raise this time.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I believe the last time there was a raise, GS was pumping the stock and thereafter TSLA did the raise. So it seems that there's no raise this time.

Or GS isn't doing the raise.

 

[Paracelsus]

I believe the last time there was a raise, GS was pumping the stock and thereafter TSLA did the raise. So it seems that there's no raise this time.

I hope you are correct, hoang51. That would be wonderful, wouldn't it? That somehow GS didn't get the memo that Elon circulated on Friday?...........ha!

 

[racer26]

Once again I say - this kind of price activity just cements that TSLA won't do the raise. They don't need to, and while raising at 275-280 might have been attractive to derisk, raising at 240-250 is decidedly less so.

Either that, or this SpaceX announcement coming at market close *is* the raise.

 

[Mike Smith]

So we had 2 upgrades following the ER, which did nothing for the SP....but a $5 downgrade moves the stock 3% lower?

I will say that the GS report is the best sell side analysis to date. Hog Negativity Index now at 4.

It should be noted that David Tamberrino only took over covering TSLA at GS last year, and he's been quite negative since the day he took over, as opposed to the previous analyst who had a buy rating. This really should have been expected. I've even noticed on the conference calls he's the most negative sounding of all the analysts.

 

[Bgarret]

It should be noted that David Tamberrino only took over covering TSLA at GS last year, and he's been quite negative since the day he took over, as opposed to the previous analyst who had a buy rating. This really should have been expected. I've even noticed on the conference calls he's the most negative sounding of all the analysts.

Negative, and this time bitched how tired and overworked he was..".....going to be up late again tonight." World loves a whiner, oh, meant winner, spelled MUSK.

 

[Hogfighter]

Here's his other stock non-recommendations. Guess he thinks the mattress is the best place for money.

 

[Mike Smith]

I think TLSA will drift higher today as investors learn that this wasn't really a downgrade - David Tamberrino has had TSLA at $185 to $190 the entire time he's covered the stock.

 

[ZsoZso]

Why is it that TSLA always takes the stairs up, but the elevator down ?

 

[Mike Smith]

Why is it that TSLA always takes the stairs up, but the elevator down ?

It's a good sign. In a bull market the sharpest moves are always to the downside.

 

[Fallenone]

Bought back more shares than I sold at 275. Will start buying leaps after stabilization

 

[dw4ngg]

Bought back more shares than I sold at 275. Will start buying leaps after stabilization

what if there's no stabilization and just more volatility, but back to the upside?

 

[Fallenone]

what if there's no stabilization and just more volatility, but back to the upside?

Then I wait till it breaks 300 and buy weekly calls. But I see less and less reason for the stock to act like that. Going further down seems more likely.

 

[Irishjugg]

what if there's no stabilization and just more volatility, but back to the upside?

That would certainly break the very long term pattern Tesla has shown. It would certainly wreak havoc on my attempts at swing trading. I personally expect high volatility and a slow and steady downward March until actual material volumes of model 3 are being produced (or the new product announcements hinted at heavily in the CC happen, whichever comes first). Actually if model 3 isn't at substantial run rates when those announcements are made I would predict further drops on cash burn fears.

All of this would be long run irrelevant of course.

 

[dennis]

Nothing to Wonder about. They upgraded (when it had littel effect on SP) so that they could downgrade it if needed to "adjust" SP at a cruical(?) point, to try help their short buddies. (IMO)

Or it could just be incompetence. Mr. Tamberrino is ranked #4325 of 4501 on TipRanks.

https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/david-tamberrino

 

[dennis]

Why is it that TSLA always takes the stairs up, but the elevator down ?

If you look at the Goldman analyst's chart posted above it has been exactly the opposite over the past 3 years: 3 month sharp rises followed by 7 month declines.

 

[MitchJi]

Yes, GS downgraded the stock down to $185 back in October, then upgraded to Neutral and $190 on 1/5/2017, then now they are lowering it back to $185. I'm not sure what there is to "disagree" about.

The article you provided the link to was an old article.

 

[Nate the Great]

Usually the stock climbs at the end of every quarter and falls off after the ER/CC. Last Q1 ER/CC was at the beginning of May. Depending on how far the stock as fallen, I would expect it to march up in April. There is also a greater likely hood of a better ER/CC in Q1 as well.

Musk could also throw us a bone with a surprise M3 reveal at the end of March (Unlikely).

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

The article you provided the link to was an old article.

The date on it said and still says February 27th so I am not sure how that is old? The only explanation I can think of is the article changed between the time I posted it and the time you clicked it and now it's changed back. It is known that editors change stuff on the fly when it is breaking news.

 

[Mike Smith]

Musk could also throw us a bone with a surprise M3 reveal at the end of March (Unlikely).

I'm pretty sure the HUD will be revealed for MS/MX in March. This is what Musk was referring to as M3 reveal part 3, since it will also be used in M3. The final M3 unveiling will then come near start of production. Remember Musk had said all new technologies will be available in MS/MX first. This also allows them to work out any kinks with the HUD prior to M3 launch.