2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

There are different ways of investing.

I only invest in companies I believe in. TSLA is a steal at 200, and it was even more of a steal at 140. So last year, I gradually bought more and more as TSLA fell more and more. And I certainly don't regret doubling my position in the 200-145 range. The shares I bought at 145 has doubled already. If you want to double your money when it comes to the shares you've bought at 300, you need to wait until TSLA is at 600. And by then, I will have quadrupled my money.

Awesome! More power to you bud!

 

[Starno]

Exactly, which is why I hope they consider splitting when they break through $400. People get nervous when they see $10, $20, $30 drops. But not so much about a $2 or $5 drop.

I'm afraid they'll rather want to do it the Amazon and Google(Alphabet) way, and not split before 1000 or something

 

[TrendTrader007]

Sooo, different brokerages cater to different types of clients. Fidelity is not catering to clients like you.

I'm a zero-margin, no-shorting, buy-and-hold, minimize-fees investor; Fidelity and Schwab are both catering to clients like me. (I even "sell-and-hold" with my short options, which I often let expire.)

You're a gambler, and there are other brokerages which are catering much more to you. I couldn't tell you what they are, because I've never *looked* for them, but you probably would be happy with a different sort of brokerage. Do your research, you will probably (eventually) find one which caters to people with high use of margin and concentrated positions... you might have to pledge your house as backstop collateral or something, but you'll probably find one...

In the meantime, the advice to call Fidelity Active Trader and find out what you have to to do get better margin requirements is also good advice. (Since switching brokerages is slow.)

Thanks!

 

[TrendTrader007]

I do like their share loan program however.....

No kidding! Great way to generate income while holding shares

 

[TrendTrader007]

OK, you're crazy. (Does that help?)

Lol!

 

[TrendTrader007]

I loaded up on short and medium term calls pretty well. I'll either loose $7k by Fri or be up a bunch!

Take a look at April 2013 chart for clues I'll post the chart shortly
Actually I'll post those charts later this evening around 9 or 10 pm EST since I'm busier than a dog this evening

 

[Curt Renz]

Neither the contents of the Fed minutes nor Ryan’s concern about the time needed to develop a tax reform bill were truly unexpected news. Nevertheless a few sheep were rattled and instigated a stampede of the type described in Prechter’s new book. In this age of algobots that is more easily accomplished, especially when the ever growing herd of day traders sets stop loss limits. So some innocents such as TSLA were momentarily trampled this afternoon. As Prechter describes, they tend to quickly get back on their feet.

 

[TMSE]

Exactly, which is why I hope they consider splitting when they break through $400. People get nervous when they see $10, $20, $30 drops. But not so much about a $2 or $5 drop.

I hope they don't split. Option trading costs will increase unnecessarily as there is a per contract option fee which every brokerage charges.

 

[Starno]

Alright tomorrow :

I say it will go towards 300, but close before it reach : 298.

And I say, it won't reach 300 again before next week.

 

[BornToFly]

Alright tomorrow :

I say it will go towards 300, but close before it reach : 298.

And I say, it won't reach 300 again before next week.

I think it will climb the last two weeks before ER back over 300 on the rumor. Until then, probably stay in the 290s, or even drop into the 280s. After ER, the obligatory drop (to below 300). Just my guess. I hope I'm wrong and it goes higher.

 

[supratachophobia]

Can I ask the sudden cause for the drop at the end of the day?

 

[Starno]

Can I ask the sudden cause for the drop at the end of the day?

Macro, nasdaq dropped

 

[1kEE]

Can I ask the sudden cause for the drop at the end of the day?

Fed said stocks are overextended. And talk of tax reform bill difficulties in congress.

 

[supratachophobia]

Fed said stocks are overextended. And talk of tax reform bill difficulties in congress.

Thank you. I didn't know if the Cramer article or other news was directly responsible.

 

[MitchJi]

Serious people are trying to figure out *when* they will produce Model 3 in large volumes and *how* profitable it will be. (Heck, I'm actually on record as saying that the Model 3 profit *might* be fully priced in already!)

I think not a chance (alien dreadnaught is not priced in)!

MediumT-Term (now until mid 2018) in my opinion:
I'm a little surprised that as soon as the SP, got close to, or went over $300 there were quite a few posts about selling shares and LEAPS. I did the opposite. I sold all of our J19 $240's and J19 $260's and replaced them with twice as many J19 $300's.

My reasoning is that the SP hit $300 before Tesla starts or completes two exponential production ramps! TE has already started, and the M3 will be at over 10k per week by the summer 2018. If you understand the meaning of the phrase "and so if you move the dates around even a little bit, it can quite significantly change what occurs in a quarter just because the production ramp is an exponential and shifts up a couple weeks, it can make the quarter look low, but actually it's in vertical climb mode", it seems to me to be a really bad time to bail. We've been waiting for the upcoming opportunities for at least two years!

Two other likely catalysts:
I also believe that even if Tesla misses their AP2 level 4 and 5 dates, that within 6-8 month's (at the latest) they will roll out substantial improvements to AP2 as compared to AP1..

You talked about Gigafactories, 3, 4 and possibly 5...

I think we'll reserve some dry powder for announcements later this year. This is surely more than enough news for today. But I think those announcements will be really quite exciting later this year.

Short term:
I believe that the main significant short term risk is that one or more A-Supplier's A-Team misses their date enough to cause the M3 production to slip past ~September.

M3 cannibalizing the current MX-MS:
Is the M3 sufficiently compelling to risk cannibalizing the current MX-MS. Its very clear to me that Tesla believes that it is. I believe that by the time that they open the model 3 design studio, they will take two steps to prevent that; make improvements to the MX-MS, and reduce the MX-MS prices without negatively impacting profits. Which is great news for M3 buyers.

 

[1kEE]

Thank you. I didn't know if the Cramer article or other news was directly responsible.

Tsla is all good news at the moment IMHO... macros got spooked.

I'm betting on everyone being trained to "buy the dip", and this being a sudden dip, I'm betting on a sudden recovery.

We will find out shortly hahha.

 

[fysician]

Tsla is all good news at the moment IMHO... macros got spooked.

I'm betting on everyone being trained to "buy the dip", and this being a sudden dip, I'm betting on a sudden recovery.

We will find out shortly hahha.

It's already too high to call this buying the dip. 150 was when everyone should have bought the dip.

 

[neroden]

It's already too high to call this buying the dip. 150 was when everyone should have bought the dip.

Yeah, I was sadly on vacation in Feb 2016. I did catch the "SolarCity merger dip", however.

 

[neroden]

Can I ask the sudden cause for the drop at the end of the day?

It's usually incorrect to attribute a short-term stock price move to a cause, given that it's the emergent interactions of lots of algos and day traders and market makers, with a tiny amount of long-term buys and sells buried deep under the surface.

So I try not to make such an attribution. "Noise" is the best answer here.

Sudden gaps usually are due to news, though. Not always.

Tesla is actually being *less* volatile than I'm used to, by the way. And annoyingly for me as a put seller, implied volatility (on options) is now below historical volatility.

 

[fysician]

Yeah, I was sadly on vacation in Feb 2016. I did catch the "SolarCity merger dip", however.

Yeah. I bought in both dips. Unless some catastrophic event occurs with model 3, sadly, there shall never be another one below 200.