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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Random thought


I piled into all sorts of weeklies and monthlies on the dip. I must like the gamble!

Hoping for 300 tomorrow.

Uncharacteristically for me, I did something similar during the final minute of trading. Knee-jerk reactions to news are often undone after given a little time to reflect.

For more on that theme, you might want to read Robert Prechter's new book The Socionomic Theory of Finance.
 
Send in the clown. Tencent did not "write a $1.8 billion check to Tesla for 5% of its shares." It bought them in the secondary market over many months with an average basis of $216/share. Is Tencent continuing to buy? No one knows. If they go under 5% or over 10% they will have to file an amended form 13g: otherwise, check the form 13f's six weeks after the quarter ends.


Those dates are interesting.

Tencent was almost certainly continuing to buy, though we don't know for how long. You don't go to 5% unless you intend to buy more -- you'd stop at 4.999%. It was weird to see the *exactly* 5% number on the 13g, since normally if you subscribe in a secondary offering, you'd either end up under or significantly over... Now, where they stop buying, I don't know (could be 5.1% for all I know), but if they plan to stop before 10%, they can buy as much as they like without telegraphing how much they're buying until the 13f is released, I guess. If you've got your dates right, I guess we find out how much they bought in the last week of March in *mid-May* and we don't find out what they've been buying in April until mid-August. This gives them quite a lot of ability to act silently, particularly during April and early May.

The tradeable float is extremely low and will remain so until there is a resolution of whether Tesla can produce the M3 in large volumes and sell them profitably.
It is funny that there is anyone at all who doubts that they can. Obviously, they can. They have driveable prototypes, being debugged, now (as of today) spotted in the wild. They have a working battery factory. They have a body-in-white line and are stamping out panels and refining their dies. They are working on the final assembly line, and they have their robots. They have supply chain lined up. They have a huge backlog of reservations. They've leaked enough numbers related to their production costs to make it clear that they'll make a profit.

Serious people are trying to figure out *when* they will produce Model 3 in large volumes and *how* profitable it will be. (Heck, I'm actually on record as saying that the Model 3 profit *might* be fully priced in already!)

There are an awful lot of unserious people in the stock market, though, who somehow think that they'll keep losing money after they're manufacturing several hundred thousand cars per year with a longer backlog at decent profit margins... The tradeable float really is low and this is why I can't for the life of me figure out who's crazy enough to short-sell the stock. If someone is bearish, I could see buying puts or some sort of bear option spread, but short-selling into this thin a float?
 
When is the date of Q1 report ?
Before merging with Solar City, they used to be the end of the first month of the quarter, usually on Wednesday. SCTY complicated things, so the last one was significantly later. This may still slow them down a bit. My GUESS is Wed May 3rd.
 
It's worth remembering that in percentage terms, today's "drop" is like moving from 30.20 to 29.50. Which didn't excite people when it happened repeatedly back in 2013.
Exactly, which is why I hope they consider splitting when they break through $400. People get nervous when they see $10, $20, $30 drops. But not so much about a $2 or $5 drop.
 
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