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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Yeah. I bought in both dips. Unless some catastrophic event occurs with model 3, sadly, there shall never be another one below 200.

The stock will be worth 5000 in a few years. Buying at 150 or 220 shouldn't make that much of a difference in this context.

Even at 500-600 dollars the stock will still be a 10x bagger.
 
Okay here is the deal about buying on a dip.. buying on a dip makes you feel like a genius (in retrospect) however it is a very risky thing to do in the stock market
now I'm not going to say that I have never bought a dip I did actually buy Tesla back in January 2016 when it was trading at $140 but I only put $60,000 in that and was basically a small position I subsequently sold it at $255 a share in a couple of months in 2016 at that time I was mostly into Facebook
I realize that there are many investors on this forum who truly believe in Tesla as a company and will buy every dip that they conceivably can. I am not one of them
While I am a huge fan of Elon and I really like tesla as a company I am not blind cheerleader I risk my money only when I believe that a stock is going to take off and when a stock starts going down I look at cutting my losses I do not enjoy losing tons of money those who do more glory to them
I do not believe that I'm making a single investment in my entire lifetime I like to replicate my success on a continual basis therefore I'm always looking for opportunities and wherever I find the highest return on my money that is where my money goes Period End of story
Oh and by the way I do not care about tripling or quadrupling my money if I can do that that's awesome but I'm extremely happy if I can get 50 to 100% return on my money in a relatively short period of time
to me it is the size of the position rather than the percentage gain that counts at the end of the day I want to see how much of my total net worth I have increased over a given period of time rather than just percentage returns
 
Is the M3 sufficiently compelling to risk cannibalizing the current MX-MS. Its very clear to me that Tesla believes that it is.

I dont believe this is really true. I think they are trying to move people who cant wait to S60, but that is over. I think they will work to further differentiate the MX/MS from the M3. I predict an interior refresh by years end with a switch to the 2170 packs. They will position MX/MS to better compete with 5-7 Series BMW and E/S Class Benz and the MX vs the more luxurious and sporty SUVs like the X6. This differentiation will offset anyone who sees the 3 as a substitute for a 5 series or E class. With an interior refresh, you could see some kind of augmented reality HUD like the one shown by Panasonic recently. It would require an interior refresh because it needs cameras on the interior to track head/eye movements. I could see some kind of gesture interface so you do not have to touch the screen, which would also require some cameras/sensors to see the hand movements. The Model 3 actually allows them to abandon the lower margin versions of the MS as those people will opt for fully optioned, higher margin, Model 3's. You might even see them get rid of S75 as the fully optioned 375D will have more range, I see this more in 2018 when they have fully ramped production.

Savings from 2170 Pack, increased buying power with the model 3 production and now dealing with Tier 1 suppliers should allow them to keep pricing down on the refresh and increase the quality at the same time.
 
It's usually incorrect to attribute a short-term stock price move to a cause, given that it's the emergent interactions of lots of algos and day traders and market makers, with a tiny amount of long-term buys and sells buried deep under the surface.

So I try not to make such an attribution. "Noise" is the best answer here.

Sudden gaps usually are due to news, though. Not always.

Tesla is actually being *less* volatile than I'm used to, by the way. And annoyingly for me as a put seller, implied volatility (on options) is now below historical volatility.

Thank you for explaining that in a completely "non-dickish" way. Generally, I have seen the stock do this slow rise until earnings and then drop back down, but obviously never(rarely?) this much gain in such a short time (quarter).
 
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I think not a chance (alien dreadnaught is not priced in)!

M3 cannibalizing the current MX-MS:
Is the M3 sufficiently compelling to risk cannibalizing the current MX-MS. Its very clear to me that Tesla believes that it is. I believe that by the time that they open the model 3 design studio, they will take two steps to prevent that; make improvements to the MX-MS, and reduce the MX-MS prices without negatively impacting profits. Which is great news for M3 buyers.

I think this is also the reason they are not guiding for MS/MX deliveries in 2H17. Until they see the effect of order rates for their legacy line up (assuming M3 design studio opens in June) then can they decide. So hopefully we'll see 2H guidance on their August earnings letter at the earliest.
 
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I think this is also the reason they are not guiding for MS/MX deliveries in 2H17. Until they see the effect of order rates for their legacy line up (assuming M3 design studio opens in June) then can they decide. So hopefully we'll see 2H guidance on their August earnings letter at the earliest.

The model 3 will still be fairly hard to get in 2017, actually impossible if you didnt reserve one a year ago. If you reserve a high end performance Model 3 today, you wont get it until the end of 2018. Really no option for those folks besides S/X. I believe they are not guiding because they do not know how many 3's they can make in 2017 until they get close to actual production and see how suppliers are going to be able to deliver.

I think an under rated value of having the Model 3 in the market is that it exposes a lot more people to the idea of an electric car that can actually handle every situation and demand that a traditional ICE car can and can actually be more convenient with home charging. This could actually help Model S/X sales.
 
I think this is also the reason they are not guiding for MS/MX deliveries in 2H17. Until they see the effect of order rates for their legacy line up (assuming M3 design studio opens in June) then can they decide. So hopefully we'll see 2H guidance on their August earnings letter at the earliest.
I suspect that Elon's tweets about the M3 maxing out at 75kwh, and timing of P-D M3 being 6-9 months later, vs not as much details on the base model, is not a coincident. This clarifies expectation at the high end of M3 where it will most likely overlap with the MS, and they will have a quarter (Apr-Jun) to gauge the reaction on MS demand before M3 is even released, and can fine tune their M3/MS product mix and pricing.
 
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