2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Paracelsus]

$TSLA A big up move is coming maybe as soon as tomorrow if not tomorrow in the next few days

I agree that we are about to see a big move - one way or the other (preferably up and I expect that to be the case). I have shared some of my reasons for this, and I believe the reason for the flat trading today is the converging trend lines on the monthly chart. I think we could have broke to the downside very easily if Elon hadn't had a tweet storm of good news last Friday, which I believe was his intention for doing so. The clock continues to tick so a path up or down must be chosen soon to ride either of the converging trend lines. Those are my reasons for the spring being coiled and a bigger move about to occur soon. Please add some more details to your post so I can understand your reasons for the move you expect in the very near future

Much appreciated

 

[JRP3]

$TSLA A big up move is coming maybe as soon as tomorrow if not tomorrow in the next few days

Or maybe the next few weeks, or months...

 

[TrendTrader007]

Negative reversal in $VIX yesterday and today portends well for $TSLA and Nasdaq

 

[luvb2b]

i just don't think you can break meaningfully to the downside ahead of an earnings report that i believe in all likelihood will show record earnings and profits.

I agree that we are about to see a big move - one way or the other (preferably up and I expect that to be the case). I have shared some of my reasons for this, and I believe the reason for the flat trading today is the converging trend lines on the monthly chart. I think we could have broke to the downside very easily if Elon hadn't had a tweet storm of good news last Friday, which I believe was his intention for doing so. The clock continues to tick so a path up or down must be chosen soon to ride either of the converging trend lines. Those are my reasons for the spring being coiled and a bigger move about to occur soon. Please add some more details to your post so I can understand your reasons for the move you expect in the very near future

Much appreciated

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA $300 is clearly the floor and ceiling is $400
$500
$700
$1000
$1500 ???
Who knows
All I know is that this stock is super resilient

 

[Paracelsus]

i just don't think you can break meaningfully to the downside ahead of an earnings report that i believe in all likelihood will show record earnings and profits.

Which is my belief too. My interpretation of recent charts and technicals say we are movin' on up like the Jefferson's soon. I had only made that quick post from the barn on my iPhone in hopes that TrendTrader would add some more depth and breadth to his post(s)

 

[Richgoogol]

Its definitely meaningful that TSLA closed above $300 again , it should take off from here now

 

[Turing]

Its definitely meaningful that TSLA closed above $300 again , it should take off from here now

Almost closed up on the day if not for a surge of selling in the final minute.

 

[Skryll]

I was pessimistic about the stock market in March 2009 exactly 3 days before the market bottom I sold everything on March 6, 2009 and then I shorted the market in March 2009 as it went up so yes I use myself as a contrarian indicator

Reminds me of shorting RMBS all the way up and then covering just before the crash, back then...

 

[Lump]

Tesla: $375 is the New $500?

Dougherty’s Charles Anderson and Jessica McHugh cut their price target on Tesla to $375 from $500.

We inherited coverage of TSLA from Andrea James ~9 months ago and have reiterated the $500PT she set in April 2016 (when the stock was $230) ever since. We note the $500PT was based on a multiple applied to prospective 2025 earnings, discounted back. Admittedly, this was longer-term target. In order to gain consistency with the 12-month Price Target view of the rest of our coverage universe, we are going to lower our PT to $375, which is based on 30x our new FY20 EPS of $12.49. We note that we expect TSLA to grow at a 35% CAGR from FY17 to FY20 and thus see this as a fair multiple. Finding this level of growth from a company of this size is very difficult in this market. We continue to believe Tesla has a substantial lead in battery technology over other automakers and a powerhouse of a brand (350K+ reservations for a car with no advertising).

 

[Turing]

Tesla: $375 is the New $500?

Dougherty’s Charles Anderson and Jessica McHugh cut their price target on Tesla to $375 from $500.

We inherited coverage of TSLA from Andrea James ~9 months ago and have reiterated the $500PT she set in April 2016 (when the stock was $230) ever since. We note the $500PT was based on a multiple applied to prospective 2025 earnings, discounted back. Admittedly, this was longer-term target. In order to gain consistency with the 12-month Price Target view of the rest of our coverage universe, we are going to lower our PT to $375, which is based on 30x our new FY20 EPS of $12.49. We note that we expect TSLA to grow at a 35% CAGR from FY17 to FY20 and thus see this as a fair multiple. Finding this level of growth from a company of this size is very difficult in this market. We continue to believe Tesla has a substantial lead in battery technology over other automakers and a powerhouse of a brand (350K+ reservations for a car with no advertising).

It will be interesting to see how they spin this into a negative headline? It's more of a price target time adjustment and it is still bullish at $375, but I'm sure they can come up with negative headlines. "Tesla price target slashed by over $100 dollars!!".

 

[JRP3]

$TSLA $300 is clearly the floor and ceiling is $400
$500
$700
$1000
$1500 ???
Who knows
All I know is that this stock is super resilient

 

[Starno]

$TSLA $300 is clearly the floor and ceiling is $400
$500
$700
$1000
$1500 ???
Who knows
All I know is that this stock is super resilient

I honestly think that in the next 6 months-1 year Tesla can easily achieve a 100B valuation which means a (about) $600 SP.

By easily I mean if M3 production and deliveries happen as planned. 2018 would be the revelation year, and 100B is easily attainable in those conditions.

Once M3 proves to be a success, I think it'll be a non stop growth. Because the bear arguments is that Elon Musk has a big mouth but doesn't deliver on his promises. So if M3 is a success, it'll be the end of the bear theories, Elon Musk will definitely be trusted. And he'll be considered as Steve Jobs unanimously.

------------------------------

P.S. : It's important to note that Uber might make an IPO next year, and it'll probably be around 100B.
And so It'd be really surprising if Uber get a valuation superior to Tesla.

 

[Intl Professor]

Agree, from a TA perspective things look pretty positive short term. Of course, bad news or macro can always change that.

Maybe wish fulfillment distortion but I think the war talk about No. Korea is just a lot of huffing and puffing with our media stoking it for ratings. As Morell noted, Trump is being tested by Kim as any new president would be. The huff on our side is for our consumption and the press is fulfilling its classic role as cheerleader. Do you remember in one of my bleets I asked what game theory says about the strategy of two bullies? A lot of huffing and puffing under a stable balance of terror, to use an idea from Churchill.

Salesmen know all about these tactics. Talk about pulling the trigger is one thing, but it might help to know exactly what the trigger does. That is why Roger Fisher thought it a good idea to bury the nuclear button next to the bag guy's heart and he was to carry a scalpel for the President to carve it out of his chest.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I wish you luck with it! I hope you're better at predicting short-term better than I am...

I don't trade short term most of my calls are long term
Real money is only made by holding positions for several months
I usually hold my positions for several months

 

[larmor]

Maybe wish fulfillment distortion but I think the war talk about No. Korea is just a lot of huffing and puffing with our media stoking it for ratings. As Morell noted, Trump is being tested by Kim as any new president would be. The huff on our side is for our consumption and the press is fulfilling its classic role as cheerleader. Do you remember in one of my bleets I asked what game theory says about the strategy of two bullies? A lot of huffing and puffing under a stable balance of terror, to use an idea from Churchill.

Salesmen know all about these tactics. Talk about pulling the trigger is one thing, but it might help to know exactly what the trigger does. That is why Roger Fisher thought it a good idea to bury the nuclear button next to the bag guy's heart and he was to carry a scalpel for the President to carve it out of his chest.

I think alot of this N Korea activity is just all talk, and what every small country does when it joins the club, wants to sit at the counter. Just wants to brag. But here is a radiolab on US commander in chief responsibilities, very enlightening:
Nukes

 

[TrendTrader007]

No way.....so you raging on about TSLA is going to $500 or $600 actually means it's going to tank?...

Definitely a risk. I'm not exactly the brightest bloke on the block. I make mistakes all the time and lose tons of money all the time. The only reason why I do so well in the markets is because I bet like a drunken sailor when I think conditions are right and I end up being lucky most of the time
I'm a lucky guy and it's definitely luck and not talent that has made me my profits

 

[TrendTrader007]

Reminds me of shorting RMBS all the way up and then covering just before the crash, back then...

Hey we all learned the hard way. Very few super successful traders have created their fortunes without going broke first
In fact as Jesse Livermore said you have to pay tuition to Wall Street and often it runs in millions (or billions as in case of guys like Ackman)

 

[TrendTrader007]

It's worth watching Dave L's interview with TrendTrader007 - he has quite an original outlook on investing which overall has worked very well for him it seems. I have a lot of time for many of the points he raises, particularly how he views losses and gains.

Thanks bud!

 

[TrendTrader007]

I agree that we are about to see a big move - one way or the other (preferably up and I expect that to be the case). I have shared some of my reasons for this, and I believe the reason for the flat trading today is the converging trend lines on the monthly chart. I think we could have broke to the downside very easily if Elon hadn't had a tweet storm of good news last Friday, which I believe was his intention for doing so. The clock continues to tick so a path up or down must be chosen soon to ride either of the converging trend lines. Those are my reasons for the spring being coiled and a bigger move about to occur soon. Please add some more details to your post so I can understand your reasons for the move you expect in the very near future

Much appreciated

Sorry for the delay. I've had a super busy day as most of us. You're right. Lemme share a few positives that I see on short term charts
Breakaway gap on 4/3 has held up very well SP didn't even come close to testing the $287.5 level. Instead it has nicely and tightly consolidated for the last several days with a hollow red candle today and the moving averages are pointing straight up that is an extremely bullish scenario
Long term charts look extremely bullish I could give you several reasons but suffice it to say at the technical picture looks really really good OK I will go ahead and post several charts tonight and explain my exact rationale for that