2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[vgrinshpun]

I wish I understood the method behind the madness of the way Fidelity monkeys with the number available on any given day...

Its not like 150,000 shares magically disappeared from being available overnight.

I think that they make sure they have enough shares to cover the perceived demand, so "low availability" today could be an indication of their perception of the demand for shorting. Low demand for shorting should be good for SP. This is just my speculation, of course...

BTW, grabbed another share in the Brockerage portion of my 401K at $298. (no more funds available, the rest of them are already in TSLA)

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I can't even add 200 shares today without moving the stock. The stock is tight.

 

[Bobfitz1]

I think Tesla will, in some sense, try to do that; I think their target production leve is very high. I don't think they'll succeed in doing it *by 2020*.

This isn't a bottom-up argument, but... on *average* I would say (and this is arguable) Tesla is doubling its production every two years or so. I'm on more solid ground when I say that the entire electric car industry is doubling production every two years or so. (And totally coincidentally so is the solar industry.) Anyway, sometimes there's a couple of year slowdown, and then we have 2018 to catch up. This would imply about *six* years to get from 500,000 cars/year to 4 million cars / year

On a bottom-up basis, it takes years to build a new factory. Going as fast as possible... about 3 years. More likely 4 years. This is after it's been designed. Construction work is slow, paperwork is slow, hiring is slow. And they won't really be starting construction of additional factories until 2018.

So... 2021 to 2024 for 4 million cars per year. Not 2020.

Neroden, 2024 would be the year w 4M if Tesla is able to continue doubling every two years. From what I've seen on TMC it seems like Tesla will use GF1 as the place to design and implement each successive major improvement in manufacturing speed/quality, and when proven, build the same 'machine' in a new factory location. Eventually in multiple factory locations. If you think that seems about right, do you think it would be significant enough to get them to 4M a year or more before 2024?

 

[Richgoogol]

slow day today

 

[zdriver]

I can't even add 200 shares today without moving the stock. The stock is tight.

Then how did that 80k trade at 10:17am barely move it?

 

[Paracelsus]

I don't want to jinx it but it feels like we could start climbing - even pop any minute now

 

[T3slaTulips]

I don't want to jinx it but it feels like we could start climbing - even pop any minute now

 

[Richgoogol]

I don't want to jinx it but it feels like we could start climbing - even pop any minute now

you totally jinx it

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA just bought 98 calls of January 2019 $500 and some $600

 

[AudubonB]

MOD:

KEEP TO TOPIC.
There are very good reasons for having two fairly parallel threads. Guyz 'n grilz, this isn't difficult!

 

[kenliles]

Increased stock core position another 10% (@299) based on luvb2b analysis and the recently clarified requirement for S&P listing (rather than 4 consecutive GAAP). I think the odds increase on that event- likely playing out over the next 2-3 quarters.
I'd be adding (D)ITM LEAPS on it- but analytical macro concerns are increasing and form a mind-plague - I don't want to feed it, which in turn will cause anecdotal selling pressure on downturns. Instead I'm inoculating early with long term stock allowing Rumpelstiltskin to sleep through Black Vulture events-- to each their own--

edit
p.s.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Then how did that 80k trade at 10:17am barely move it?

I don't entirely get how short-term trading works as I'm a very long-term investor and I add to my and my clients' position as I deem appropriate. So I can only report on my personal experience. Every time I put in a buy order, even for a few hundred shares, the bid moves up instantly.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA total call options exposure now quite significant
Plus superlong common
Let the games begin

 

[Paracelsus]

As someone who values charts I find days like today to be some of the most interesting and also some of the most helpful to gain a better understanding of long term formations through short term movements. This 'dead zone' between the previous ATH, the current ATH, and a very huge psychological 300 in between has resulted in

• heavy shorting efforts utilizing perhaps too much ammo to drive the price below 300
• countered by heavy buying support and foundation building each time we fall between the previous ATH and 300
• and even the possibility that Elon's tweets were timed to support a price between 300 and the new ATH prior to earnings

There are some huge transactions happening without much change in price, and there are some small transactions happening that appear tough to fill, as others have also witnessed here. This is a battleground, and I am glad to have the chance to watch it closely, otherwise months from now a review of the 2017 chart would just look like another upward trend passing through new ATH's without much else to reveal. I am also glad there is so much dialog here during this time that will become good historical reference later as I should have been doing a better job keeping notes.

 

[Runarbt]

Fun to watch, as SP climbs steady on low volume, and sales (shorts?) of 10-20k is needed to bring it down for a short while.
Not that many shares borrowed today, so if we assume last 4 tiny peaks in volume is some of these shares, they have spent 75k-ish shares so far? Out of ammo soon?

 

[Reciprocity]

Its after lunch, I predict 10 point increase from here, but only because the market is down 120 and well.. Tesla always goes up when the broader market tanks.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

$TSLA total call options exposure now quite significant
Plus superlong common
Let the games begin

I wish you luck with it! I hope you're better at predicting short-term better than I am...

 

[Richgoogol]

This could be the reason why TSLA is down still
Tesla faces threat of strike that could disrupt Model 3 production
Tesla faces threat of strike that could disrupt Model 3 production

 

[Reciprocity]

This could be the reason why TSLA is down still
Tesla faces threat of strike that could disrupt Model 3 production
Tesla faces threat of strike that could disrupt Model 3 production

There wont be a strike, because the unions while extract their pound of flesh and it wouldn't impact the model 3 production because Tesla already hired Ghromann for that work and its been completed for the initial production. The acquisition appears to be more about the future and the next Gigafactories then the current production line, though I am sure they will work closely to improve the process to help to get to 20x the rate that Elon talked about.

 

[Reciprocity]

Its after lunch, I predict 10 point increase from here, but only because the market is down 120 and well.. Tesla always goes up when the broader market tanks.

What time does lunch end for the Wall Street types?