2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Starno]

What time does lunch end for the Wall Street types?

Around 1:30pm.
So in 1 h?

 

[Paracelsus]

Its after lunch, I predict 10 point increase from here, but only because the market is down 120 and well.. Tesla always goes up when the broader market tanks.

The spring has been coiling tighter and tighter all day. It is looking more likely that it has stored enough potential energy to do more than just pop at this point. I would say this spring is coiled tight enough to really hurt someone

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla is doubling its production every two years

50,000 cars in 2015 -----10x----- 500,000 cars in 2018 (three years, so converted to two years would be 4.6x)

32,000 cars in 2014 -----2.6x-----84,000 cars in 2016

22,000 cars in 2013 -----2.5x----- 50,000 cars in 2015

Remember: the primary constraint Tesla has had, capital, will no longer be an issue after Model 3 ramp-up. Both because of billions in gross profits but also because of substantially increased borrowing capacity. They are also better at ramping up manufacturing as this will be their third time. Continuous decline in battery costs also opens up the demand flood gates after a critical point, which Tesla seems to have achieved even before Gigafactory 1.

I expect exponential growth going forward.

 

[Reciprocity]

The spring has been coiling tighter and tighter all day. It is looking more likely that it has stored enough potential energy to do more than just pop at this point. I would say this spring is coiled tight enough to really hurt someone

I hope you are right, or I will have to change my prediction to be up 10c instead of 10 points. Hopefully they only have 2 martinis before heading back to work, because I need them sharp.

 

[Turing]

The spring has been coiling tighter and tighter all day. It is looking more likely that it has stored enough potential energy to do more than just pop at this point. I would say this spring is coiled tight enough to really hurt someone

The last time we had this much tight consolidation was around the $250 level 1/25 - 2/3.

 

[Lessmog]

I hope you are right, or I will have to change my prediction to be up 10c instead of 10 points. Hopefully they only have 2 martinis before heading back to work, because I need them sharp.

Drei Martini, bitte! Oh, misunderstood.

 

[Reciprocity]

Ok boys.. Martinis down.. over 300!

 

[Paracelsus]

I hope you are right, or I will have to change my prediction to be up 10c instead of 10 points. Hopefully they only have 2 martinis before heading back to work, because I need them sharp.

When we have days where much of the price range is within $0.25 we have seen big jumps in either direction when it breaks lose - almost like watching after hours trading when a quarterly report is released. It takes a tremendous amount of effort to hold a stock like Tesla this tightly- like holding a tiger by the tail. There might even be a few MM's afraid to let go at the moment

 

[MitchJi]

$TSLA just bought 98 calls of January 2019 $500 and some $600

I need to be more careful reading your posts. When I saw $600 calls I think my nose almost started bleeding !

 

[Reciprocity]

When we have days where much of the price range is within $0.25 we have seen big jumps in either direction when it breaks lose - almost like watching after hours trading when a quarterly report is released. It takes a tremendous amount of effort to hold a stock like Tesla this tightly- like holding a tiger by the tail. There might even be a few MM's afraid to let go at the moment

Hey, we make a great team. I make a dumb wild ass prediction and you fill in the actual facts that make it true.

 

[ggr]

I don't entirely get how short-term trading works as I'm a very long-term investor and I add to my and my clients' position as I deem appropriate. So I can only report on my personal experience. Every time I put in a buy order, even for a few hundred shares, the bid moves up instantly.

If you place a market order, the order WILL be filled if there are shares available. Since you are buying (that is, bidding), the bid price will move up until the order fills, which may well be at the current ask price. There is also "front-running", in which the broker's computers act on your order before actually executing it or forwarding it to the actual market. Front running can apply even to limit orders, but usually only in thinly traded stocks, where you find that no matter how much time you spend bumping up your bid, the ask keeps running away from you. Whenever I see that happen, I just stop, since filling the order usually means paying too much. TSLA, however, has too much volume for that kind of game.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA beautiful triangle consolidation on daily chart with low volume pullback
Expect markedly higher prices in very near future

 

[Richgoogol]

$TSLA beautiful triangle consolidation on daily chart with low volume pullback
Expect markedly higher prices in very near future

I enjoy reading your posts. They keep me positive when I am pissed about the stock not going anywhere. But just curious, has there ever been a time that you are pessimistic?

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA A big up move is coming maybe as soon as tomorrow if not tomorrow in the next few days

 

[TrendTrader007]

I enjoy reading your posts. They keep me positive when I am pissed about the stock not going anywhere. But just curious, has there ever been a time that you are pessimistic?

I was pessimistic about the stock market in March 2009 exactly 3 days before the market bottom I sold everything on March 6, 2009 and then I shorted the market in March 2009 as it went up so yes I use myself as a contrarian indicator

 

[Richgoogol]

I was pessimistic about the stock market in March 2009 exactly 3 days before the market bottom I sold everything on March 6, 2009 and then I shorted the market in March 2009 as it went up so yes I use myself as a contrarian indicator

No way.....so you raging on about TSLA is going to $500 or $600 actually means it's going to tank?...

 

[D-egg-O]

Goldman down almost 5% today. Is this keeping everything in the red today?

 

[Turing]

$TSLA A big up move is coming maybe as soon as tomorrow if not tomorrow in the next few days

Agree, from a TA perspective things look pretty positive short term. Of course, bad news or macro can always change that.

 

[Capn Bob]

I enjoy reading your posts. They keep me positive when I am pissed about the stock not going anywhere. But just curious, has there ever been a time that you are pessimistic?

It's worth watching Dave L's interview with TrendTrader007 - he has quite an original outlook on investing which overall has worked very well for him it seems. I have a lot of time for many of the points he raises, particularly how he views losses and gains.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA most people have a need to be right in the markets I don't I love being wrong I make a killing despite being wrong