Reciprocity
Active Member
It's almost seems like the short shares get dumped onto the market in the first hour and then the stock spikes directly after as investors buy orders kick it at the lower cost.
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Runarbt
Active Member
Reciprocity
Active Member
Wow, thanks Curt. Man I feel like I owe you guys a beer for all the education I am getting from the investor threads. Looks like the short shares all go dumped and swooped up by longs. Love it.
Is it against the rules for Fidelity and the likes to lent out shares just to then buy them to increase their long position?
Paracelsus
Active Member
Cramer - "You got to control the market. You can't let it lift"....time 1:50. Didn't catch that the last time I watched it. Sure sounds a lot like the recent forecast estimates we have been seeing. Thanks for continuing to post this Curt. I expect they are simply suppressing Tesla share prices while allowing stocks of lesser growth potential to run before they are the first to shift these inferior holdings to Tesla in an effort to create additional investment capital. This would help explain why Tesla tends to be held back on days when the rest of the market marches forward (i.e. today the DJ was up 1%, the Nasdaq was up 0.5%, and automotive stocks were up 0.5% when Tesla reversed downward). That of course suggests that there are a lot of stocks on today's market that shouldn't be going up (perhaps Ford and GM?) - and will soon be going down. While this will be good for long-term Tesla investors, this unfortunately leaves the small investor holding a bag full of *sugar* inferior stocks that CNBC and others advised them to own before the rug got pulled out
Cramer - "Its important when you're in that Hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful"....time 5:05 - do we know any 'small hedge fund managers' that fall into that category?
Reciprocity
Active Member
Im not saying the lender is buying, I mean the traditional long investor in the market.
I maintain records since last September - and yesterday and today had the highest I ever saw.
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
BofA either knows something about SCTY that we don't see, or this is a blatant attempt to let shorts cover more shares near $300.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Amazon (after first couple of years, so post 1998) never grew nearly as fast as Tesla is and will be growing in the next three years.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I wouldn't be surprised if shorts were there to keep the SP down as much as they can while larger investors come in on the long side.
Again, this is all conspiracy theory stuff, and I don't base my investment decisions on it.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
One can answer your question by looking at the short interest.
Percent of outstanding shares short was never as high for Amazon as it is today for Tesla at this stage of the company (i.e. large-cap).
I strongly believe this is a function of what Tesla represents (i.e. end of fossil fuel industry). Read this.
Amazon never threatened multiple trillions of dollars of oil revenue. Tesla has the potential to transform energy as we know it.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
My understanding is that lending rate jumps if demand to short is close to max number of shares available to short, and otherwise is low.
This is in line with my expectation that demand to short TSLA is decreasing as we get close to earnings day.
I use VIX differently- but I know some use it to help judge risk in short term trades- especially tuned going into ER. For those folks take note of VIX plunge to recent lows;
longer term 1yr reference:
longer term 1yr reference:
Paracelsus
Active Member
Exactly this! I found neroden's explanation of a 'sector shift' most helpful as that concept works for me. And if the overall market managers were capable of slowly and steadily transitioning their holdings from the old paradigm to the new paradigm of stocks on a daily/weekly basis, then they may even be able to keep the overall market trend positive while transitioning their holdings to the new paradigm (thus the trend from US stocks to overseas tech companies, and the shift from traditional to tech while the overall average continues to march upwards). I believe we don't need to see a market 'crash' for a paradigm shift to occur - but someone has to be left holding the bag. And I am feeling more confident every day that Tesla is a good place to be if the market managers shift the paradigm too quickly with negative results on the overall market (Tencent investing in Tesla is a great vote of confidence). I don't like conspiracy theories either, but a lot of big funds are holding old paradigm investments and they know it. The inverse correlation you mentioned would indicate to me that they are already in the process of the transition to the investments that make up the best portfolio for tomorrow.
BTW - I finally had some time to read the "Implications to flawless Model 3 launch and ramp to stock price" thread you started. Very informative and well written. Thank you for your efforts!
The interest rate at Fidelity went back to 1%, about 652K shares were borrowed at a bargain rate of 0.25% (based on the sample of Fidelity trading screen included below).
Those guys got the bargain of the day!
Those guys got the bargain of the day!
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