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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
You appear to know a thing or two about this stock
On a roll?! You were off by three cents
!I think for post ER there is 2 possibility that can play out :
- Either the market think that the positive ER outcome is already priced in. And so not a very big upward trend.
Or,
- The ER will be there to confirm the upward trend, and we will see a solid and steady SP growth.
- Either the market think that the positive ER outcome is already priced in. And so not a very big upward trend.
Or,
- The ER will be there to confirm the upward trend, and we will see a solid and steady SP growth.
There are more than 2M shares available for shorting at Fidelity, and interest rate plummeted to 0.25%. Something is going on. I am wondering if the glut of displayed available shares and lowered interest rate is an indication that Fidelity increased their TSLA position and now have more shares that they are eager to lend. Pure speculation on my part, but I am perplexed at the situation, particularly such a low interest rate.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Couldn't this also be an indication that shorts covered some shares yesterday and there is now lower interest in shorting TSLA? This is in-line with my expectations that some shorts will be covering up to the earnings release on May 3.
Also, note that one of my brokers shows lower level of available shares (by about half million), so they may have also shifted positions from fidelity to other brokers. Interest rate remains stable.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Positive ER release (defined as Model 3 ramp on schedule, Tesla Energy growth and positive commentary around margins, positive commentary around gigafactories 3, 4, and possibly 5) is certainly not priced in. What's priced in at the moment is 200-300k cars in 2018 and 500k cars in 2020 @ 20-25% gross margins but minimal net income and no profitable growth from Tesla Energy.
$50 billion market cap is what an avg investor would currently pay for $2-3 billion current net income, which is achievable with 500k cars in 2020 combined with Tesla's historical and future expected growth rate. This is in-line with my 500k cars in 2020 priced in comment in the previous paragraph.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I'l be surprised if we're still below $$310 after this week. A lot of shorts will want to cover going into earnings given positive commentary/tweets from the company. Elon seems very confident.
Or they may be buying call options to be exercised after earnings. Either way, the stock is set to rise from here.
The borrowing at Fidelity had slow start, but there seem to be 500K shares borrowed within the period of 9 minutes:
John Murphy from BOA just slapped TSLA with a downgrade. I doubt TSLA will go anywhere today at least.
Bank of America just said there's ‘material risk’ to the long-term viability of Tesla
Bank of America just said there's ‘material risk’ to the long-term viability of Tesla
I would love to understand why Fidelity, which owns a lot of Tesla shares, is willing to lend them out for 0.25% (basically free). Are they setting a bear trap for a bigger short squeeze? Are they trying to force the SP down because they have sold some of their shares with the intention of buying in again at a lower price?
racer26
Active Member
Definitely something funky going on here.
0.25% is too low for Fidelity to be using the fully paid lending program to acquire the shares to short, AND the number is the highest we've seen availability in over a year.
I'm thinking Fidelity has grown their stake, and they think TSLA is about to go up so they're trying to entice retail shorts with enough rope to hang themselves.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
[ 2:00am several days ago. Abandoned parking lot. Two cars pull up to each other. Windows roll down.]
Big Whale Client: I wanna get into TSLA bad. Model 3, solar roofs, Tesla Energy, it's gonna be huge.
Big Wall St Firm: Whoa there buddy, you sure, I mean it's over $300 a share.
Big Whale Client: Well I'm sure there's a way you could bring it down for us first.
Big Wall St Firm: For you, anything. Give me a few days.
Big Whale Client: That's what I'm talking about.
Big Whale Client: I wanna get into TSLA bad. Model 3, solar roofs, Tesla Energy, it's gonna be huge.
Big Wall St Firm: Whoa there buddy, you sure, I mean it's over $300 a share.
Big Whale Client: Well I'm sure there's a way you could bring it down for us first.
Big Wall St Firm: For you, anything. Give me a few days.
Big Whale Client: That's what I'm talking about.
racer26
Active Member
His PT is even more looney tunes AND with less material views to back it up than GS's.
Did AMAZ go through so much headwind when they were first starting out and weren't making any money (i.e., with all the downgrades, bad mouthing from analysts etc.)? Could some more experienced investor here enlighten me with a little history?
@Richgoogol: At this point in its operations, AMZN was worth something like half of what TSLA is worth.
Reciprocity
Active Member
At least he didn't call it a Ponzi scheme, so we are moving up in the world.
What I dont get is when someone calls this stock a Ponzi scheme on CNBC and the talking head that's interviewing said moron doesnt even think to ask if they know what a Ponzi scheme is.
Paracelsus
Active Member
wow - that was a quick reversal. Somebody is putting those shares available to short at almost no interest to work on the stock price right out of the gate. Climbing towards 309.50 and then BAM.
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