2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[vgrinshpun]

In this instance, I think shares were simply withdrawn from the pool rather than shorted. According to my volume charts, just 400-500k shares were traded during this period, meaning that 1MM could not have been shorted. I have no idea why they would do this, other than to perhaps try to gauge demand or drive the SP down through intense shorting ahead of (good) earnings. When the shorts don't take (all) the morning bait maybe they pull those shares back.

Remember, borrowed shares != shorted shares.

That is why I specifically wrote "borrowed", not shorted. The similar thing is happening in pre-market, a lot of shares borrowed, so short sellers have enough of a supply to sell when they see fit...

 

[Bobbyducati]

really odd action the last hour or so, cant quite figure it out

 

[esk8mw]

Remember, borrowed shares != shorted shares.

That is why I specifically wrote "borrowed", not shorted. The similar thing is happening in pre-market, a lot of shares borrowed, so short sellers have enough of a supply to sell when they see fit...

Didn't catch that distinction earlier, thanks. Regardless, the data is interesting and appreciated, thanks for sharing it with us.

 

[Paracelsus]

really odd action the last hour or so, cant quite figure it out

I like farzyness' observation yesterday regarding the inverse movements of GM and Tesla. When that correlation was posted, GM was up and Tesla was down.........then about the time that trend reversed Tesla went on a launch. At this time GM is also up and Tesla is down. Will that trend reverse again today? Perhaps today GM is running up to make more investment money to put in Tesla before GM runs back down in that process. I can't help but believe the investment paradigm is shifting behind the curtain

 

[vgrinshpun]

I greatly appreciate your efforts to continue to provide real time information/data points to help all of us learn and understand this process better. I am hoping that some of the observations that were discussed yesterday will continue to be observed in the near term - i.e. a million shares lent to bring the price down and make a million shares available for standing buy orders throughout the rest of the day/week...........that may or may not have been the case but it sure produced a nice steady move up when there was buying demand for those shares yesterday. I don't see the demand to own TSLA shares today to be any less than it was yesterday from a broader perspective.

It is now approaching the end of April. Is it possible funds and large buyers are creating an end-of-month demand on the market as they rotate/transition stocks? That has been discussed by some here but I don't understand the process enough to comment on it. Of course we could get some wonderful data points on 'shares that are lent to create shares available to buy' if TSLA is welcomed into the S&P 500 since this could create a tremendous potential for available shares to buy (and hold). We would thus expect a tremendous amount of shares to be made available for lending at that point if the theory from this board is correct.....(wouldn't we?)

Mutual funds file reports quarterly, so "window dressing" that I think you are referring to, is taking place at the end of quarter, not monthly.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

This is an important paragraph from Elon's recent e-mail to Fremont employees. It shows, as I had thought, that Elon is even more bullish than the "ten-fold increase in the next 5-10 years" included in his e-mail to Grohmann employees.

"The chart below contrasts the total comp received by a Tesla production team member who started on January 1, 2013 against the total comp received over the same period at GM, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler (FCA). A four year period is used because that’s the vesting length of a new hire equity grant. I believe the equity gain over the next four years will be similar."

I agree.

 

[Bobbyducati]

need that after lunch kick to arrive. macro is a bit of a roller coaster today

 

[Starno]

I actually think it's good if we come to the ER a bit quietly. The after effect will be multiplied

 

[Paracelsus]

Mutual funds file reports quarterly, so "window dressing" that I think you are referring to, is taking place at the end of quarter, not monthly.

Thanks - I wasn't referring to 'window dressing' but inquiring if there was a traditional window of time each month that stock adjustments were made (not just to make performance look better than actual). Any thoughts/observations on this?

 

[geneclean55]

I think it's actually good if we come to the ER a bit quietly. The after effect will be multiplied

In complete agreement with this. A run into the earnings print is not always optimal.

 

[D-egg-O]

macro is a bit of a roller coaster today

Checks the charts. Holy moly, you're not kidding. Today's a "let's sweep that one under the rug" day for me.

 

[Chop110]

At the risk of sounding contrarian... why all the optimism for the ER? The typical loss will be posted as a result of capital expenditures. Just like the previous 4Q ER, a good chunk of investors are going to get freaked by this and sell. Sure, the price will eventually come back up in time for the Model 3 production news, but I am not seeing the upcoming ER as a price raise catalyst.

I am actually kind of hoping for a buy in opportunity after the ER comes out.

 

[everman]

I am having a bed time brownie.
NOT an advice

Oh.My.God. I almost choked on my popcorn I laughed so hard at this! @austinEV is one of my faves on this site!

 

[Starno]

At the risk of sounding contrarian... why all the optimism for the ER? The typical loss will be posted as a result of capital expenditures. Just like the previous 4Q ER, a good chunk of investors are going to get freaked by this and sell. Sure, the price will eventually come back up in time for the Model 3 production news, but I am not seeing the upcoming ER as a price raise catalyst.

I am actually kind of hoping for a buy in opportunity after the ER comes out.

Because Elon Musk wouldn't display so much confidence had he thought the ER would impact negatively the stock price.
He wouldn't tweet " Stormy weather in shortville " a few weeks before an ER that would crush the SP ...

 

[austinEV]

At the risk of sounding contrarian... why all the optimism for the ER? The typical loss will be posted as a result of capital expenditures. Just like the previous 4Q ER, a good chunk of investors are going to get freaked by this and sell. Sure, the price will eventually come back up in time for the Model 3 production news, but I am not seeing the upcoming ER as a price raise catalyst.

I am actually kind of hoping for a buy in opportunity after the ER comes out.

Capex doesn't affect profitability. They can spend a zillion dollars on capex, and still make a profit. High capex spend makes cash flow negative, but neither high capex nor negative cash flow is a negative for this quarter, since they are obligated to build out for the M3.

 

[D-egg-O]

Is today an overreaction to the Consumer Reports "downgrade"?

I've also been reading a lot of "these are the best stocks to short" articles and guess who's on the list.

 

[Richgoogol]

Is today an overreaction to the Consumer Reports "downgrade"?

I've also been reading a lot of "these are the best stocks to short" articles and guess who's on the list.

Is today an overreaction to the Consumer Reports "downgrade"?

I've also been reading a lot of "these are the best stocks to short" articles and guess who's on the list.

Oh that's easy. Even I know this one. It has to be Goldman Sachs, short them for making the worst call in the history of their existence on TSLA for losing billions of dollars in profits for shorting the stock.

 

[Paracelsus]

Some orders being filled after-hours at $312+. Seems they might be letting off steam after holding the price down again today....? Gap up tomorrow?

 

[CyberDutchie]

This is an important paragraph from Elon's recent e-mail to Fremont employees. It shows, as I had thought, that Elon is even more bullish than the "ten-fold increase in the next 5-10 years" included in his e-mail to Grohmann employees.

"The chart below contrasts the total comp received by a Tesla production team member who started on January 1, 2013 against the total comp received over the same period at GM, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler (FCA). A four year period is used because that’s the vesting length of a new hire equity grant. I believe the equity gain over the next four years will be similar."

I agree.

Quick calculation: Jan 2, 2013 closing price was $35.36 and four years later $216.99. That's a 614% gain.

Basically Elon is telling his employees to expect a 614% gain over the next four year period.

That means TSLA at $1,332 on Jan 4, 2021.

I'd be very happy with that

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Quick calculation: Jan 2, 2013 closing price was $35.36 and four years later $216.99. That's a 614% gain.

Basically Elon is telling his employees to expect a 614% gain over the next four year period.

That means TSLA at $1,332 on Jan 4, 2021.

I'd be very happy with that

I would calculate it from the current share price since the e-mail is very recent. So $2,000+ which is in-line with my expectation.