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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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I find the timing of this somewhat curious. Tesla says they will roll out the automatic breaking this week and NOW Consumer Reports decides to ding them? Why not last week....why not next week? It's like this was the last chance for a downgrade, they saw the shot, there was no danger, so they took it.

Tesla will release ‘Automatic Emergency Braking’ feature on cars with Autopilot 2.0 hardware this week

I suspect that Tesla's release of the update with AEB was prompted by the Consumer Reports downgrade. They probably were planning to release it in package with other Autopilot upgrades, but decided to break it out and release it earlier after being notified about the downgrade by Consumer Reports. Pure conjecture on my part, but I think that was the actual sequence here...

EDIT: Yggdrasill beat me to it.
 
I find the timing of this somewhat curious. Tesla says they will roll out the automatic breaking this week and NOW Consumer Reports decides to ding them? Why not last week....why not next week? It's like this was the last chance for a downgrade, they saw the shot, there was no danger, so they took it.

Tesla will release ‘Automatic Emergency Braking’ feature on cars with Autopilot 2.0 hardware this week
Not that devoted shareholders like us even care about what others think, but the timing of all these downgrades are like prestaged, it's disgusting.
 
Panasonic stock has gone up 10% in Japan today and tomorrow (so far). Only news seems to be is that they are completing purchase of a subsidiary. Wondering if there might be some relevant Tesla development impacting Panasonic ( e.g., Gigafactory 3).

Panasonic is likely benefiting from smooth progress towards Model 3 ramp-up.

I don't think we're too far away from TSLA shorts losing grip on the stock.
 
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Did not catch the 8:00 availability of shares for shorting at Fidelity, but at 8:09am there were 1.474 M shares available, with interest rate 1%. This is the third highest availability day since September of last year. The first two, were Yesterday and Monday.

I suspect a repeat of the robust yesterday's borrowing today. Hopefully it does not bring SP down to much, but we have the Consumer Reports downgrade to deal with today...
 
'Side note?' - if I understand this correctly this is frigging bigly news and one of the key reasons I leave my money long on Tesla for Elon to use - Elon exchanging $10,000,000 of his convertible senior notes to hold 33,333 shares of Tesla at $300 per share today is a Yuuuge vote of confidence in his company's future. How many CEO's would continue to reinvest and hold. In addition to anticipating a smooth Model 3 rollout, he must be very sure of the changes coming to the electrical grid and distributed generation/solar/battery storage to personally bet another $10M againstthe existing paradigm................note to Grid managers - time to pull some heads out of the sand!!!!!! That light at the end of the tunnel is an electric semi!

I don't think this is as significant as it may come across at first. It's not really a big vote of confidence when a CEO who already has $10B+ invested in the stock buys another $10 million.

There are two arguments to this news, and I can see the reasoning on both sides.

Bulls will say it's a vote of confidence. I think it's a very good sign that the CEO has $10B+ invested in the stock, that large "active management" institutional investors hold long-term and significant positions in the company, that a large Chinese tech firm recently invested $2.5 billion in the company. Among all this, 10 more millions is peanuts.

Bears will point out that this being another sign that SolarCity was in spitting distance of breaching a covenant before the acquisition, and that Tesla is now taking steps to rectify the situation. I am not yet convinced that this is false. Even if it was true, however, I don't think it would be material given Tesla's scale/undervaluation/future, but it would call into question the reasoning behind the merger, and this is important.

Investors would benefit from increased transparency into SolarCity's financials.
 
"The number denoted represents $10,000,000 of the Zero Coupon Senior Notes due 2020 of SolarCity Corporation" So 2020 is the maturity date, right?

Has Silver Lake also converted?

"On November 17, 2015, SolarCity Corporation (the “Company” or “SolarCity”) entered into an investment agreement (the “Investment Agreement”) with Silver Lake Kraftwerk Fund, L.P. (“Silver Lake Kraftwerk”), the Elon Musk Revocable Trust dated July 22, 2003 and Lyndon Rive (collectively, the “Purchasers”), relating to the issuance and sale to the Purchasers of $113 million in aggregate principal amount of the Company’s Zero Coupon Convertible Senior Notes due 2020 (the “Notes”). The transactions contemplated by the Investment Agreement (the “Transaction”) are expected to close on or about December 7, 2015 (the “Closing”) subject to customary closing conditions. Silver Lake Kraftwerk has agreed to purchase $100 million in principal amount of the Notes, Elon Musk, Chairman of the Company’s Board of Directors, through his trust has agreed to purchase $10 million in principal amount of the Notes, and Lyndon Rive, the Company’s Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer, has agreed to purchase $3 million in principal amount of the Notes. Messrs. Musk and Rive will purchase the Notes on substantially the same terms and conditions as offered to Silver Lake Kraftwerk".
 
Not much borrowing today in pre-market at Fidelity, plenty of shares available, more than 1.7M...

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I remember the virtual eye rolling on this thread when TT007 said he was "forcing" himself to buy more shares at 280. It seemed ludicrous at the time. Ah, what I would give for a few more shares of TSLA at 280 right now.
you COULD buy some portion, instead of 100 shares at 280, ~88 shares at 312.....
the "pebble" is 'just saying..' i have been DCA'ing the last 2 months..34 shares between $262 - $312 raising my basis just a trifle
 
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Is it possible that Fidelity would just remove 1million actions from the available pool ? that million would be 80% of today's volume so far...

What would be the reason to do so? I believe they come up with the projection of the demand and decide how many shares to put in the pool daily. Historically they might get additional shares to the pool, almost always before market opens. I do not see any incentive for them to remove shares in the middle of the trading day, unless shares are borrowed.

To make it clear, above is my conjecture, I do not think anybody knows for sure.
 
If it were a certainty, every analyst would know about it and it wouldn't be a beat. :)
I don't believe that that correlation is accurate. It's a certainty that Tesla will exceed Jonas's expectations for the number of M3's produced.
This. Autonomy can be worth 0 as long as it isn't causing people to buy other cars instead of Teslas. The value is in the electric car manufacturing and the battery manufacturing.

I'd like to remind people that fully autonomous trains have been solved technology since the 1970s and we're still not using them, mostly. Fully autonomous cars? Don't make me laugh -- they'll be banned PDQ the first time one kills someone, and it will happen, even if it's a freak accident. This is why *everyone* including Tesla is instead offering more and more "driver assist features" and requiring the driver to be ready to take control at any time.
At some point before the end of 2018, full autonomy (not necessarily regulatory approval) will definitely be a competitive advantage for Tesla.

Every time someone doubts Elon's on something like this I smile when I remember watching the video of the recycled rocket landing on the barge.
 
What would be the reason to do so? I believe they come up with the projection of the demand and decide how many shares to put in the pool daily. Historically they might get additional shares to the pool, almost always before market opens. I do not see any incentive for them to remove shares in the middle of the trading day, unless shares are borrowed.

To make it clear, above is my conjecture, I do not think anybody knows for sure.

I greatly appreciate your efforts to continue to provide real time information/data points to help all of us learn and understand this process better. I am hoping that some of the observations that were discussed yesterday will continue to be observed in the near term - i.e. a million shares lent to bring the price down and make a million shares available for standing buy orders throughout the rest of the day/week...........that may or may not have been the case but it sure produced a nice steady move up when there was buying demand for those shares yesterday. I don't see the demand to own TSLA shares today to be any less than it was yesterday from a broader perspective.

It is now approaching the end of April. Is it possible funds and large buyers are creating an end-of-month demand on the market as they rotate/transition stocks? That has been discussed by some here but I don't understand the process enough to comment on it. Of course we could get some wonderful data points on 'shares that are lent to create shares available to buy' if TSLA is welcomed into the S&P 500 since this could create a tremendous potential for available shares to buy (and hold). We would thus expect a tremendous amount of shares to be made available for lending at that point if the theory from this board is correct.....(wouldn't we?)
 
Looks like there were 1M shares borrowed between 9:48 and 10:09am...

View attachment 224504
In this instance, I think shares were simply withdrawn from the pool rather than shorted. According to my volume charts, just 400-500k shares were traded during this period, meaning that 1MM could not have been shorted. I have no idea why they would do this, other than to perhaps try to gauge demand or drive the SP down through intense shorting ahead of (good) earnings. When the shorts don't take (all) the morning bait maybe they pull those shares back.
 
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