2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[CyberDutchie]

I would calculate it from the current share price since the e-mail is very recent. So $2,000+ which is in-line with my expectation.

Up for interpretation. The way I took this comment is similar gains applied to the four year vesting period of the equity offering from Jan 2017 to Jan 2021 (since he was referencing to the offering in the chart which was Jan 2013 to Jan 2017).

But, hey, if he believes employees joining today while the stock is at an all time high, would realize 600%+ gains in four years, yes, TSLA share price would be close to $2,000.

Also, most ESPPs (employee stock purchase plans) include a stock discount of up to 15%. He may have considered that as equity gain also.

 

[Rarity]

Quick calculation: Jan 2, 2013 closing price was $35.36 and four years later $216.99. That's a 614% gain.

514% gain.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

I am having a bed time brownie.
NOT an advice

This made me laugh out loud, creating an awkward situation at work. Funniest thing I've seen all month.

 

[Curt Renz]

514% gain.

That’s correct. It’s amazingly common for people to add an additional 100% to the result of a gain calculation, if the gain is more than 99%. The base value often gets lumped in with the gain above that base value, as was the case to which you are alluding. As an example, a doubling in price implies a 100% gain, not a 200% gain. This common error has been repeated frequently on this message board.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Quick calculation: Jan 2, 2013 closing price was $35.36 and four years later $216.99. That's a 614% gain.

Basically Elon is telling his employees to expect a 614% gain over the next four year period.

That means TSLA at $1,332 on Jan 4, 2021.

I'd be very happy with that

You need to stop thinking small

 

[D-egg-O]

That’s correct. It’s amazingly common for people to add an additional 100% to the result of a gain calculation, if the gain is more than 99%. The base value often gets lumped in with the gain above that base value, as was the case to which you are alluding. As an example, a doubling in price implies a 100% gain, not a 200% gain. This common error has been repeated frequently on this message board.

What's next, the SP making a complete 360? This is something else I hear a lot (not in this forum).

 

[CyberDutchie]

That’s correct. It’s amazingly common for people to add an additional 100% to the result of a gain calculation, if the gain is more than 99%. The base value often gets lumped in with the gain above that base value, as was the case to which you are alluding. As an example, a doubling in price implies a 100% gain, not a 200% gain. This common error has been repeated frequently on this message board.

Haha, thanks for the lesson in basic math, Kurt

 

[Papafox]

In recent weeks we've seen shorts increasing their net positions in TSLA, partially with the hope that their selling at these record high prices will scare longs and thereby start a downtrend that will make them money.

At the same time, we see longs who are willing to increase their TSLA positions ahead of the ER and these longs see a dip as a buying opportunity more than a threat of a reversal in stock price. As long as these two viewpoints prevail, we'll see the spring wound tighter and tighter prior to the ER. After today's trading I could swear I heard that spring groaning with tension.

 

[TrendTrader007]

In recent weeks we've seen shorts increasing their net positions in TSLA, partially with the hope that their selling at these record high prices will scare longs and thereby start a downtrend that will make them money.

At the same time, we see longs who are willing to increase their TSLA positions ahead of the ER and these longs see a dip as a buying opportunity more than a threat of a reversal in stock price. As long as these two viewpoints prevail, we'll see the spring wound tighter and tighter prior to the ER. After today's trading I could swear I heard that spring groaning with tension.

i bought little bit of common at $312.24 this AM but significantly raised my options exposure by buying 101 calls of Jan 2019 $600 at $7.23 average price

oh! i forgot....Not an advice!

 

[TrendTrader007]

so now i am definitely facing gambler's ruin holding well over 200+ calls of way OTM $500s and $600s leaps which is well over 30% of my options portfolio
Definitely NOT an advice
Time to play paint it black

 

[sundaymorning]

I am actually kind of hoping for a buy in opportunity after the ER comes out.

I thought I was being wise when I sold about 350 shares of my Tesla when it was high 30s, thinking I'll be able to buy it back when it goes a bit lower. This turned out to be one of the worst financial decisions in my life. The second was when I sold another few hundred at 70s, the third was another few hundred at 90s

 

[TrendTrader007]

I thought I was being wise when I sold about 350 shares of my Tesla when it was high 30s, thinking I'll be able to buy it back when it goes a bit lower. This turned out to be one of the worst financial decisions in my life. The second was when I sold another few hundred at 70s, the third was another few hundred at 90s

a little off topic here but i sold approximately 5500 shares of BIDU in October 2008 at $200 only to see it trade at $1650 in less than 3 years when i was damn sure that it would bottom at $100 as it did
i figure i left a profit of approximately $7.9 million on the table
no regrets
Tuition to the markets

 

[sundaymorning]

a little off topic here but i sold approximately 5500 shares of BIDU in October 2008 at $200 only to see it trade at $1650 in less than 3 years when i was damn sure that it would bottom at $100 as it did
i figure i left a profit of approximately $7.9 million on the table
no regrets
Tuition to the markets

Whichever direction this stock moves after the May ER will be irrelevant to how TSLA will perform within 1-2 years time. Judging by Elon's recent 2 emails, I'm confident as he is in he performance of the stock, M3, Tesla semi, MY and TE.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Whichever direction this stock moves after the May ER will be irrelevant to how TSLA will perform within 1-2 years time. Judging by Elon's recent 2 emails, I'm confident as he is in he performance of the stock, M3, Tesla semi, MY and TE.

oh most definitely yes! i read the whole email today and it is plain as sunlight that this stock is going UP! Way UP!!
Elon is a rather understated guy and if he is confident about stock price it speaks volumes.
i'm ready to make millions on this trade
Too bad i don't have billions to bet but if i did i would be betting every single dime on TSLA

Seriously....Not an advice!
i'll shut up and wait several months to see what happens

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

so now i am definitely facing gambler's ruin holding well over 200+ calls of way OTM $500s and $600s leaps which is well over 30% of my options portfolio
Definitely NOT an advice
Time to play paint it black

Yeah, at some point in Q4 15, I was holding 1/3 of the whole open interest in Jan 16 250 strike. Lost some 6 figure $, I've decided to never remember how much (tax sheltered account, no reporting). So, it could be very painful, but it seems it's not your first rodeo...
However, I'm not sure why do you keep increasing exposure - based on history of your posts, it seems you have enough exposure for life-changing gains, if things go right. Increasing exposure seems like it can just hurt you more, if things go opposite way...

 

[TrendTrader007]

Yeah, at some point in Q4 15, I was holding 1/3 of the whole open interest in Jan 16 250 strike. Lost some 6 figure $, I've decided to never remember how much (tax sheltered account, no reporting). So, it could be very painful, but it seems it's not your first rodeo...
However, I'm not sure why do you keep increasing exposure - based on history of your posts, it seems you have enough exposure for life-changing gains, if things go right. Increasing exposure seems like it can just hurt you more, if things go opposite way...

well i just have a feeling that this trade could put me on a whole new level if it goes right
and if it goes wrong then i will make it all back on my next trade
see, my deal is to never stop trading
there is absolutely no number that i am shooting for
however
more is better

 

[MP3Mike]

i bought little bit of common at $312.24 this AM but significantly raised my options exposure by buying 101 calls of Jan 2019 $600 at $7.23 average price

@TrendTrader007 I'm sure I am missing something but why wouldn't you have bought 50 calls of Jan 2019 $500 at $14.40 instead? Basically the same invested amount, but should net you much better return with less risk. (Unless you think TSLA is going above $700 by 1/18/2019.)

 

[D-egg-O]

i'll shut up and wait several months to see what happens

We all know you won't. Though cavalier, your experience and perspective adds great value to this forum.

 

[TrendTrader007]

@TrendTrader007 I'm sure I am missing something but why wouldn't you have bought 50 calls of Jan 2019 $500 at $14.40 instead? (Basically the same invested amount, but should net you much better return with less risk.)

Great question! I already bought 108 calls for $500 J 19 at $13.30 or so last week or so
So now I have approximately $750k in TSLA call options with approximately $140 k or so in $500 calls
$73k in $600 calls and rest in $250s $260 $300s etc
We'll see how it all works out
If I lose I'll lose half a million or so max
If I win then sky's the limit

 

[Rammstein]

oh most definitely yes! i read the whole email today and it is plain as sunlight that this stock is going UP! Way UP!!

Hi TT007, do you have a link where I can read this email?

Hi Everyone! I have been lurking for a long time. I first got into researching Tesla because I was wondering if electric cars would put me out of a job because I work in oil and gas. I naturally had a biased against electric cars and did not want them to succeed. Then when I dived deeper I realized Tesla had addressed all of the problems that a heard about electric cars and I stared to realize an electric car is actually a better car. Since that point I started investing heavily in Tesla and