2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[DaveT]

Very unlikely. Google, Amazon, and *Berkshire Hathaway* are not issuing dividends yet. Companies with charismatic founder/CEOs who think they have lots of great things to invest in -- they don't issue dividends.

Tesla is just going to keep reinvesting in expansions of one sort or another. Eventually, they'll run out of *good* ideas and he'll start investing in completely hare-brained expansions (some would say that Google has already done this). Sometime *after* that is the time you want to get out... I'm hoping that won't be for at least 30 years, though.

Alternatively, if they don't expand forever, they'll make so much money that they'll decide to go private and buy back all of our stock -- also a possibility.

Google, Amazon and BH don't have founders who have big line of credits they need to pay off with some kind of money from somewhere. If Elon doesn't reduce his holdings in Tesla or SpaceX, not sure how he ever pays off his credit lines unless Tesla or SpaceX offers dividends. Also Elon has mentioned the topic of Tesla dividends in more than one occasion.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Google, Amazon and BH don't have founders who have big line of credits they need to pay off with some kind of money from somewhere. If Elon doesn't reduce his holdings in Tesla or SpaceX, not sure how he ever pays off his credit lines unless Tesla or SpaceX offers dividends. Also Elon has mentioned the topic of Tesla dividends in more than one occasion.

Why are you assuming that Elon has to pay off his credit lines? Credit lines can also be extended.

Have you confirmed that Elon is not receiving salary from SpaceX?

Did you know that Elon has in fact sold Tesla shares before (to pay tax liability from exercising stock options) and that he has the option to do the same to pay off credit lines, if he ever needs to?

Is it not also possible that Elon can take SpaceX, of which he holds majority, public and use proceeds to pay off credit lines, if he ever needs to?

There are numerous other scenarios that make more sense than Tesla paying dividends given that it is still growing at a super-exponential rate, and will likely be growing beyond 2025 with an ROIC (i.e. Return on Invested Capital) higher than the rate of return that an average investor can get with dividends they would receive if Tesla decided to pay dividends.

 

[dc_h]

Google, Amazon and BH don't have founders who have big line of credits they need to pay off with some kind of money from somewhere. If Elon doesn't reduce his holdings in Tesla or SpaceX, not sure how he ever pays off his credit lines unless Tesla or SpaceX offers dividends. Also Elon has mentioned the topic of Tesla dividends in more than one occasion.

If Tesla is selling 4 million cars and TE grows anything like Elon proposed, Tesla will have over 200 billion in revenue. If they have 50 billion to invest every year, the rest of the world is not trying hard enough. I agree that Elon is probably going to want to harvest some revenue from Tesla to use for other purposes. He seems to think a bit different than the rest of us, so its all conjecture. I'd like to see a dividend in about 8-10 years, but I'd like to see 4 million in car sales and TE sales ramping up to similar levels.

 

[DaveT]

Google, Amazon and BH don't have founders who have big line of credits they need to pay off with some kind of money from somewhere. If Elon doesn't reduce his holdings in Tesla or SpaceX, not sure how he ever pays off his credit lines unless Tesla or SpaceX offers dividends. Also Elon has mentioned the topic of Tesla dividends in more than one occasion.

Actually Elon could eventually IPO Neuralink or The Boring Company, and probably pay off his credit lines as well.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Actually Elon could eventually IPO Neuralink or The Boring Company, and probably pay off his credit lines as well.

Neither Neurolink nor The Boring Company will be generating meaningful revenues anytime soon. These are two unlikely candidates for an IPO.

SpaceX is more likely to be IPO'd sooner than the two you mentioned.

 

[DaveT]

Neither Neurolink nor The Boring Company will be generating meaningful revenues anytime soon. These are two unlikely candidates for an IPO.

SpaceX is more likely to be IPO'd sooner than the two you mentioned.

Elon said he wasn't sharing any TSLA, meaning he's not reducing his Tesla holdings ever. At least that's his stated intention. It's possible he sells some SpaceX stock at an IPO, but as I mentioned earlier that would reduce his holdings.

Neuralink and The Boring Company are more long-term IPO candidates, if ever. But since he's self-funding both of them for now, his eventual stake if/when they IPO will be quite large and he probably won't mind selling some at that time.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I get the enthusiasm. But a run up of $36+ in 2-3 days prior to earnings is unlikely to say the least. I'd put the odds of that happening at less than 0.01%.

I agree with you. A 10 to 11% move over the next 3 days before earnings is extremely unlikely. However it will not be an unlikely occurrence for SP to move about 3 to 6 %before ER which will put TSLA at approximately $320 to $330 range before ER. After ER you're looking at anywhere from 5 to 15% gap up which means añywhere from $336 to $368
This is all of course wild speculation
It's foolhardy to make these wild unsubstantiated projections and your guess is as good as mine
I'd be happy to make some technical observations later this evening

 

[geneclean55]

I believe there is a channel high, or maybe a fibonacci, around 325. TSLA might have trouble breaking before earnings.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Big picture monthly chart clearly indicates SP breakout from a 3 year channel/ flag on above average monthly volume up 15% in April 2017. This is significant because I totally believe that May 2017 has the potential to start out strong and end up markedly higher. After posting next several charts I'll summarize my thoughts in a single last post
Exactly how powerful these breakouts from flags/channel can be will be shown on the next post by a monthly chart of QUALCOMM in 1998 1999.

 

[TrendTrader007]

This was The monthly chart of QUALCOMM in February 1999 similar to the Tesla is currently in February 1999 QUALCOMM volume goes up 18% similar to 15% Up volume for Tesla in April 2017 please bear with me because I will have to make several posts to make my points if you guys find it intolerable please let me know. Thx!
QCOM was up 10.92% in Feb 1999 similar to TSLA up 12.85% in april 2017

 

[TrendTrader007]

Boom! This is what happened to QUALCOMM after February 1999 It took off like a space X rocket straight up for the next 10 months UP 20 times! No I'm not saying that this is what is going to happen to tesla but I'm just saying I'm just showing the fantastic profits that can come when stocks break out of these long time multi-month patterns I know it would be foolish not to keep the scenario in mind that's a real possibility especially with the high-level of short interest and potential short squeeze possible

 

[TrendTrader007]

Look at the monthly MACD of QCOM in Feb 1998 crossed over bullishly similar to current TSLA monthly MACD

 

[TrendTrader007]

And this of course was the bullish denouement of that bullish MACD crossover for QCOM
I'll post rest of my technical take later
Got to hang around and watch the rest of betting on zero movie
Why on earth would i short HLF or TSLA or for that matter any stock. Never ceases to amaze me
i mean stock market does not have to be that hard! i find it super easy to make money just based on chart action alone
but then again I'm not a billionaire!

 

[ggr]

Neither Neurolink nor The Boring Company will be generating meaningful revenues anytime soon. These are two unlikely candidates for an IPO.

SpaceX is more likely to be IPO'd sooner than the two you mentioned.

For reasons Elon has explained, I doubt that SpaceX will IPO before Mars is settled.

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon said he wasn't sharing any TSLA, meaning he's not reducing his Tesla holdings ever. At least that's his stated intention. It's possible he sells some SpaceX stock at an IPO, but as I mentioned earlier that would reduce his holdings.

Neuralink and The Boring Company are more long-term IPO candidates, if ever. But since he's self-funding both of them for now, his eventual stake if/when they IPO will be quite large and he probably won't mind selling some at that time.

I don't think he IPOs any of the three and given an opportunity to take Tesla private again, I think he'd do it in a heartbeat. He's never seemed to enjoy being a slave to what other people (wallstreet, shareholders et al) think he should be doing.

 

[MitchJi]

I expect continuation of last week's short covering ahead of earnings release, but sped up after Friday's very positive commentary around full-autonomy demo by end-2017 (which I have been predicting despite many TMC bulls' ridicule) as well as "4 more Gigafactories."

That's either a mistake on your part or dishonest. You predicted, multiple times full autonomy would be in July with the M3 rollout. I disagreed, and said that I thought that it was unrealistic to expect that Tesla would exceed their announced EOY demo date by that much and you disagreed.

Now you are denying that you made that ridiculously optimistic projection, and that you were ridiculed for a projection that you disagreed with!

 

[Krugerrand]

View attachment 225079 And this of course was the bullish denouement of that bullish MACD crossover for QCOM

Okay, so my question is this; how many other chart followers with serious money are currently comparing QCOM with TSLA charts to surmise a breakout of this kind is possible? I mean, don't a lot of people with a lot of money need to come to the same conclusion so that they can in fact buy more TSLA and then make it happen?? Otherwise if you're the only one comparing the charts then who's going to make the huge breakout happen? Certainly not the handful of us here?

 

[Skryll]

That's either a mistake on your part or dishonest. You predicted, multiple times full autonomy would be in July with the M3 rollout. I disagreed, and said that I thought that it was unrealistic to expect that Tesla would exceed their announced EOY demo date by that much and you disagreed.

Now you are denying that you made that ridiculously optimistic projection, and that you were ridiculed for a projection that you disagreed with!

And I am relieved to hear that it is 2 years out, because i doubted the validity of teslas claims about how soon they will have full autonomy fully legislated and approved, with Elon joking about the missing speedometer 'you wont miss them, how often do you look at those in a cab' meaning, no big deal its going to be fully autonomous anyways. But then again maybe its just improvements in AP2 that may be drastic enough to make you less inclined to micromanage the drive even when still in full control for legislative reasons?

 

[Richgoogol]

Tesla's epic solar roof plan just hit a speed bump
Hopefully this won't have a negative effect on the SP tomorrow.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Okay, so my question is this; how many other chart followers with serious money are currently comparing QCOM with TSLA charts to surmise a breakout of this kind is possible? I mean, don't a lot of people with a lot of money need to come to the same conclusion so that they can in fact buy more TSLA and then make it happen?? Otherwise if you're the only one comparing the charts then who's going to make the huge breakout happen? Certainly not the handful of us here?

We don't matter. Anyone with less than $1 billion to invest at least is simply a blip on the screen
My purpose to compare these charts is not to assert that this is likely to happen
It's simply to illustrate one of the numerous possibilities
For all I know Tsla could crash and burn tomorrow
I have no idea
What I'm putting out here on this forum is purely for entertainment purposes and not to be taken seriously
I certainly didn't invest in TSLA stock based on what QCOM did back in 1999
And certainly not based on other investors' opinions
Infact I really mean this to be my very last post on this stock because I'm afraid that others might take my opinions too seriously which is certainly not my intention
I express my opinions and reserve the right to be totally and horribly wrong
you gotta know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em
know when to walk away, know when to run
every gambler knows that the secret to surviving
to knowing what to throw away, knowing what to keep.....