I suggest we understand the cost first and what kind of data is provided. I don't post much, but follow the threads regularly and would be interested in this data as well.
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I would personally advise against trying to time the market. Even the best of the best get burned all the time. So I don't even imagine the results with amateurs ...
Selling at a profit has limited downside. I would use the data to try to assess my exit strategy. (I wouldn't exit *completely*, but I have been wanting to diversify.)
racer26
Active Member
I mean - the cost of selling at a profit is the opportunity cost of selling too early.
Personally, I think its too early to sell right now, and will remain so until at a minimum Model 3 is released and making decent margins.
Other markers of when might be the right time to lighten up would be a significant reduction in short interest, or the launch of Pickup.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
You DO know Musk's record of being late? This won't happen this weekend. I'm ready to place my reservation but it ain't happening until May. Maybe June.
I think this has pretty much been confirmed from the TED talk, and follow up with Tesla.
Production mid-year, and orders starting in a couple weeks.
Production mid-year, and orders starting in a couple weeks.
Sudre
Active Member
As far as timing a TSLA short squeeze..... I remember the one Tesla already had and we are well above that SP right now. That tells me timing the exit is not that important. If you miss exiting at the highest point just wait an extra year and it will surpass it (don't over leverage).
I simply don't see Musk not innovating. There is always going to be some crazy idea he will have where people will go, "NO WAY", and the shorts will pile in. Then a few years later the idea will come to fruition and the shorts will go, "SON OF A....!!!!"
That also means many years of market discussion and crazy ups and downs!
I simply don't see Musk not innovating. There is always going to be some crazy idea he will have where people will go, "NO WAY", and the shorts will pile in. Then a few years later the idea will come to fruition and the shorts will go, "SON OF A....!!!!"
That also means many years of market discussion and crazy ups and downs!
This is not a cast in stone by any means, but my hope is that Tesla will continue to innovate, and be successful, and my exit strategy will be to call my children, and grandchildren to my bed side as I am dying, and leave them with my last words of wisdom. "Whatever you do, don't sell the Tesla stock." I am a couple years younger than Elon, so I should have a few good years till then.
Unfortunately, at the moment I have quite a bit of exposure right now through long dated options, which I find very stressful even when they are going up like crazy, due to the question of when or how to exit. My fantasy is that the stock will do very well over the next 18 months and I will just exercise most of the options and hold the shares without too big a tax hit. If things get really crazy with a short squeeze I may have to reevaluate, but it would have to get really crazy to get me to pull the trigger in the next 8 months or so until the majority of my options would be long term capital gains. I have a hard time coming up with a price that would make me eager to pay 40% tax. If it seems like a short squeeze is on, I will probably be on this board asking about hair brained strategies for selling calls to try and neutralize the ones I already have without triggering short term capital gains.
Unfortunately, at the moment I have quite a bit of exposure right now through long dated options, which I find very stressful even when they are going up like crazy, due to the question of when or how to exit. My fantasy is that the stock will do very well over the next 18 months and I will just exercise most of the options and hold the shares without too big a tax hit. If things get really crazy with a short squeeze I may have to reevaluate, but it would have to get really crazy to get me to pull the trigger in the next 8 months or so until the majority of my options would be long term capital gains. I have a hard time coming up with a price that would make me eager to pay 40% tax. If it seems like a short squeeze is on, I will probably be on this board asking about hair brained strategies for selling calls to try and neutralize the ones I already have without triggering short term capital gains.
What is the point of owning Tesla stock if you are never going to sell it? The way they innovate and expand it isn't likely they will ever pay dividends...
I'd expect dividends in maybe 10 years.
If they never have a dividend, as long as they are doing something useful with the money, that would be fine by me. I feel Warren Buffet has commented very convincingly on this subject. It sounds stupid, but when I am thinking about investments I don't really think about selling a small portion of a position to spend the money, as "Selling". I think of "Selling" more in terms of liquidating and reinvesting the money in a different company that I think has more long term promise.
Buy short term puts when you're tempted to sell...
ValueAnalyst
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ValueAnalyst
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I agree with this 110%. This person knows.
ValueAnalyst
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It's more likely that Tesla will first start buying back stock than pay dividends, given the emphasis on employee stock ownership and the immense opportunity Tesla to disrupt multiple $1T+ industries.
I expect Tesla to start buying back stock in ~2025, depending on how many other companies finally start sharing the burden of building 100 Gigafactories. So we agree on the timeline.
Tesla is closer to Apple's "I-have-too-much-money-and-I-don't-know-what-to-do-with-it" problem than most realize. One can see this easily by calculating how much it would take to build 100 Gigafactories and calculating how many cars it would take to produce that much in profits, as I did in an earlier post.
This will become clear in 2H18 when the Model 3 will be printing money at 25% gross margin. Elon will start singing this soon enough.
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ValueAnalyst
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Trying to time a short-squeeze top is as illogical as purchasing a lottery ticket, when you have the option to sit there, ignore the short-term craziness, sip your pina colada, and get paid the jackpot a couple more years later anyway. Remember: if there is a short-squeeze, it'll be one that is supported by fundamentals of the company. This is my favorite type of short squeeze.
I'm buying more shares for myself and client accounts, as Elon & Team is increasing the intrinsic value of the company at a quicker pace than the SP is rising.
I am staying away from call options and excessive margin.
I see the purpose of Tesla as a funding mechanism for SpaceX hardware. In about 10-15 years, SpaceX will probably start building factories for the ITS, at which point Elon will want to extract value from Tesla. I see dividends as the most straight forward way to transfer capital without selling shares.
ValueAnalyst
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I'd be surprised if the SP didn't close above $350 before earnings day, and $400 by EOW, if the following happens:
1) Model 3 is on time for July production start with 100k+ deliveries in 2H17, 500k deliveries in 2018;
2) Commentary around 3-4 more Gigafactories (online by 2020/21) and faster production speed for these next-gen Gigafactories;
3) Commentary around Tesla Energy ramp up throughout 2H17.
I expect all of these on the investor letter and/or earnings call.
I don't expect this, but I wouldn't mind if Tesla announced another capital raise to finance the start of additional 4 Gigafactories. I expect Tesla to have the internal cash flow and access to non-dilutive debt later this year to get the construction started, but the quicker Tesla builds additional Gigafactories, the better for long-term equity holders.
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You do know that earnings is in like 3 days, right?
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