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ok... will you guys now admit that the Tesla Energy "Ramp Up" is simply not happening?
"In Q1, we installed 60 MWh of energy storage, including a 52 MWh storage project for Kauai "
"In Q1, we installed 60 MWh of energy storage, including a 52 MWh storage project for Kauai "
Another thing I noticed - Tesla guided to 5k cars per week at end of 2017. They've now shifted to saying "sometime" in 2017, which could infer that they'll be able to hit that goal sooner. Sounds like 150k Model 3 in 2018 is the floor, with about 275k as the ceiling. This extrapolates to somewhere between 250k and 375k cars in 2018. This is significantly above anyone's estimations.
So, Tesla Energy is a zero... Tesla Solar is a negative... and Tesla Auto doesn't matter because they aren't an auto company... should finally see this thing break out over $400.
phigment
Member
To clarify, from the letter: " Model 3 production to 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2017"
That would mean 250k Model 3 cars min in 2018 + MS + MX
Also, looks like 2018 will be able to hit the 500k+ estimate in cars as long as they execute. $4B in the bank is just the beginning for this company.
TE generated $213M in revenue when they got started in the middle of the quarter. Will be interesting to see what happens when they turn up the speed on Gigafactory 1 this quarter.
I'm a little shocked they're starting solar roof manufacturing in Fremont and not Buffalo, NY.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Your problem is that you are impatient.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Gross margins up, even with the strong dollar. Model 3 on track. Tesla Energy ramping up 2nd half of this year. Solar tiles being delivered in Q2. 4 billion in cash.
I like what I read, even if Wall Street disagrees.
I like what I read, even if Wall Street disagrees.
erthquake
Active Member
I saw that as well. It's encouraging. However, like the letter says, a two-week difference in the ramp could have large impact on overall deliveries. We can't be that optimistic about the ramp just yet.
Edit: Though I agree with your 2018 floor.
racer26
Active Member
Lets look critically at this:
1) Gigafactory cell production first came online Jan 4.
2) It is reasonable to assume that there was some sort of ramp associated with that.
3) Those cells then had to be assembled into powerwalls and powerpacks.
4) It is reasonable to assume that there was some sort of ramp associated with that.
5) It is reasonable to assume that large block sales to a single buyer such as Kauai are better for containing SG&A costs associated with the sale of early units.
6) We only just started hearing of people getting calls and install visits and the like about Powerwalls in the last couple of weeks.
Thus, nobody should have expected to see large volumes of powerwall sales in 1Q17. The requisite parts to build them only just started to exist in quantity midway through 1Q17, and those were mostly dedicated to a big purchase in order to contain SG&A costs. 2Q17 is when Powerwall sales will start, and I don't expect to see them at full clip until 3Q17.
So no, I'm not prepared to say the ramp up isn't happening. It is. People just forget that the financials we're seeing today correspond to events from 6+ weeks ago.
3Q17's ER is shaping up to be really exciting, in that it will contain all of initial Model 3 sales, all or substantially all of initial Solar Roof sales, and nearly all Powerwall sales.
you're kidding me... the stock bounced in the year 2015 because Tesla Energy was just about to "disrupt" the ENTIRE energy sector... remember?... 2Q15 ER - "$90M for 2015... $250M for 2016... $2B for 2017"
and nothing... NOTHING.
this was either a lie or the worlds worst guess... so why do you defend it?
While I am not overly happy with the ER, as people have pointed out, the automotive side of the business was good.
I admit to being excited about the possibility of a beat but in retrospect I did not think we would see $300 until Q3/4 so overall I am very happy being a TSLA stock holder.
My lotto ticket calls will be near worthless I suspect in the next 24-48 hours but hopefully no one bet the farm on 'the lotto'.
I did not.
The long term promise of Tesla is still intact, IMO.
I admit to being excited about the possibility of a beat but in retrospect I did not think we would see $300 until Q3/4 so overall I am very happy being a TSLA stock holder.
My lotto ticket calls will be near worthless I suspect in the next 24-48 hours but hopefully no one bet the farm on 'the lotto'.
I did not.
The long term promise of Tesla is still intact, IMO.
Runarbt
Active Member
Please guys and girls, dont let myusername bait u into a reply. Didnt u notice he replied to his own post when noone else did?;-)
He is a troll.. dont feed.
He is a troll.. dont feed.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
They probably want the first production runs to be done close to the core engineering and leadership teams in the Valley, and first installations there in the Bay Area to shake out any issues. Iterate a few times until the kinks are worked out, then ship it off to Buffalo to scale up mass production. Smart.
Kinda funny seeing a short, who came to this board when the stock was under 200 less than six months ago, gloating that the stock is now down slightly from its ATH.
I strongly dislike you.
everman
Member
Runarbt
Active Member
Sp is at 309-310, and most shorts still hurt.
Would have loved a beat, but this only mean the squeeze may take a bit longer to manifest itself.
Would have loved a beat, but this only mean the squeeze may take a bit longer to manifest itself.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
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