ValueAnalyst
Closed
I disagree. This release increases the chances of a short squeeze in the coming weeks as I discussed here.
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I disagree. This release increases the chances of a short squeeze in the coming weeks as I discussed here.
And still they are the only manufacturer that doesn't have the stupid on/off button in the car, and thats for years. That is a user facing UI advantage right there. I don't know how often I have cursed at having to jump through the state machine gridlock hoops on the VW egolf when leaving the car or wanting to unplug the charger.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Very well stated. I'm totally with you on this. The numbers I mentioned are worst case scenarios but I highly doubt that we'll see these lower prices. Yes M3 is totally disruptive and I thought ER was stellar overall and it's wrong for shorts to focus only on EPS losses when everything else is roses.
You're right about shorts not getting off easy either
Agree with too much focus on EPS resulting in a 'negative'.
There would be less for the bears to work with (or more for us to work with) with a more forceful/positive CC.
Discussing this off the forums with others the discussion came up
How can EM be so upbeat/forceful at TED and a week later seem less definitive about questions he knew he would be getting.
Andrea: Please help
. More prep work
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I'm holding on to 100% of my shares.
For what it is worth, the availability of shares to short at Fidelity dropped of as compared to a glut of shares available for more than a week before the ER. We did not see lower count since last Tuesday.
How do you react for them guiding to basically no planned growth in S/X. Elon practically said that ~100,000/year is about a magic number for them and all the suppliers and they'll stay at that for foreseeable future with no further increase. At least that's my interpretation.
I think you were estimating annual increases upto 150,000 (in 2019?) but it doesn't sound like that's in the plan right now.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
It's not clear to me that Tesla ever had plans to grow S/X production much beyond 100k per year. As I understand it, the production line wasn't really designed to support much more than that.
Krugerrand
Meow
Easy. Because he's happy to be at one location and significantly less happy to be at the other.
It's different getting to field questions you'll be asked at an event you're looking forward to using as a platform to educate the masses - who are genuinely rooting for you - on your dream for the world versus having to answer (often) stupid questions, (often) repetitive questions or (often) questions intended to extract information out of you that you either aren't ready to reveal or don't want to reveal, where the questioners are (often) intent on using the information to make your company look bad/negatively affect your share price et al... Like the whole 'how many Model 3 reservations do you have now?' question. Because Elon has never, ever before stated why he's not giving that number out ever again, but let's be a dink and ask it again in six different ways in hopes you'll trip him up or irritate him enough to give you a number so you can go blast it all over the place with the intent of bending it in some nefarious way.
That's why he's less definitive - because he doesn't want to be there talking to people who aren't on Tesla's side. The side that wants what's best for all of us. The side that isn't ruled by money.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Today should be a very interesting and pivotal session for both longs and shorts
If shorts are unsuccessful in driving down the SP too much or below $300 then their fate is essentially sealed
If shorts are unsuccessful in driving down the SP too much or below $300 then their fate is essentially sealed
DurandalAI
Member
I had a stop loss limit order at $305 that I had put in when SP was $325ish, in case of macro events causing a big dip, I didn't expect such a big dip on ER (I expected one, but not that big) so I was surprised and had to drop it down to a lower level. I'm bullish on TSLA, but I'm not bullish on the macro side of things. Of course,even if TSLA were to take a substantial dip, most of my cost basis is at the $220 level, with the remainder at $190, so I would have time to get out and still make a net profit.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
It seems that they will be prioritizing gross margin improvement to 30% as opposed to further production rate growth. I had assumed gross margin for Model S/X to approximate 25% going forward with units increasing gradually towards 150,000/year as the Model 3 increases brand awareness and new Model 3 reservationists can't get their cars until 2019.
Upon management commentary, I revised my model to 30% gross margin for Model S/X in 2H17 and forward at 100,000/year run-rate for 2H17, 110,000 throughout 2018, and 120,000/year in 2019 and on. I continue to expect some halo effect from the Model 3.
Combined, the overall impact of these two changes on Model S/X related gross profit forecast is immaterial.
Generally speaking, I consider management guidance when setting up my analyses, but majority of my assumptions are guided by independent data and logic.
Krugerrand
Meow
Maybe they thought (erroneously?) that that was going to be the limit of what the market would bear?
Maybe they just can't spend resources (time, money, people) on that line during this concentrated Model 3 time?
Nothing wrong with letting that line hum along for awhile at the 100k/year rate. Let the S/X demand stay steady and strong for that number of cars per year. Maybe when the 3 comes out and another new, huge piece of the market sees how great these cars are there will be a natural rise in demand for the more highly optioned S/X. Maybe the used market for the S/X then gets really strong?
DurandalAI
Member
They may not produce more than that at Fremont, but could certainly add S and X production at GF locations such as... China? I don't see a problem with Tesla taking more of the worldwide luxury segment, and more of the US as well, as more people become acclimated to the beauty of BEVs.
Easy. Because he's happy to be at one location and significantly less happy to be at the other.
It's different getting to field questions you'll be asked at an event you're looking forward to using as a platform to educate the masses - who are genuinely rooting for you - on your dream for the world versus having to answer (often) stupid questions, (often) repetitive questions or (often) questions intended to extract information out of you that you either aren't ready to reveal or don't want to reveal, where the questioners are (often) intent on using the information to make your company look bad/negatively affect your share price et al... Like the whole 'how many Model 3 reservations do you have now?' question. Because Elon has never, ever before stated why he's not giving that number out ever again, but let's be a dink and ask it again in six different ways in hopes you'll trip him up or irritate him enough to give you a number so you can go blast it all over the place with the intent of bending it in some nefarious way.
That's why he's less definitive - because he doesn't want to be there talking to people who aren't on Tesla's side. The side that wants what's best for all of us. The side that isn't ruled by money.
Nefarious way?
Guess I hit a nerve.
Nothing nefarious. Your explanation about the venue causing the difference is certainly one valid explanation. If he is so uncomfortable why not let others answer the questions. JB certainly seems very capable. OR ( and I don't want this), take Tesla private or sell it.
Hopefully we won't see a lot of stop loss orders triggered at $300. Short term that is my concern.
Long term, I will probably buy more as weaker longs take profit. My PT for buying more though is in the 280s.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I'm a buyer below $300. I expect any weakness in SP to be ephemeral.
DurandalAI
Member
I figure that $300 is the new level that people will panic at, so I adjusted to $290, and will let it go through if it happens, then buy back as soon as it levels out. I'd much rather this not happen, as I wasn't planning on taking any gains this tax year. I was hoping to take them next year where I can offset them with whatever remains of the EV tax credit when I get my Model 3. I'm betting on only getting $5k instead of the $7.5k as I had canceled my 03/31/2016 reservation and made a new one a few months ago. I was in a spot for a short bit, so I wanted to delay delivery of my Model 3, but a windfall tax rebate from household schooling allowed me to get in at $190 and then $220.
Krugerrand
Meow
Nefarious way?
Guess I hit a nerve.
Nothing nefarious. Your explanation about the venue causing the difference is certainly one valid explanation. If he is so uncomfortable why not let others answer the questions. JB certainly seems very capable. OR ( and I don't want this), take Tesla private or sell it.
Oh, please. You know darn well how the information gets used. Don't play dumb. Like the analyst who tried to imply that the lower reservation cash reserve somehow hinted at demand issues for S/X and/or a crap ton of 3 cancellations. You have to be either truly stupid to not be able to figure out that all the backlog of X orders now filled reduced that number or you're trying to paint a negative picture. I'll give the analyst the benefit of the doubt and assume he's either truly stupid or really bad at his job, take your pick. But we both know someone else will ignore the answer given by Deepak and bend it into a negative because that's what always happens where Tesla is concerned (at this moment in time).
Elon answers most of the questions himself because he's a control freak and wants to be the center and face of Tesla. And because it's part of his job as CEO. You also know quite well that if he could, he would take Tesla private. He's said that publically many times.
No Mr. AIMc you haven't hit a nerve. I'm trying to explain human nature to you. I get you don't like how Elon handles himself, talks, etc... but that's the way it is. It's not new and it's not changing.
When you go out into the woods, and you look at the trees, you see all these different trees.
And some of them are bent, and some of them are straight, and some of them are evergreens, and some of them are whatever.
And you look at the tree and you allow it.
You see why it is the way it is.
You sort of understand that it didn't get enough light, and so it turned that way.
And you don't get all emotional about it. You just allow it. You appreciate the tree.
The minute you get near humans, you lose all that.
And you are constantly saying, 'You are too this, or I'm too that.'
This judgement mind comes in. And so I practice turning humans into trees.
Which means appreciating them just the way they are.
The Age of Enlightenment - Ram Dass
33% US market share is rough to improve on, so all growth at this point should be abroad?
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