2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MitchJi]

There are only 2 thing I really want to know from the shareholder meeting:
whether that the Model 3 is still on schedule for launch, and whether that the production ramp is still on schedule as well.

Fixed the typos for you .

 

[GoTslaGo]

Just sold a 6/2 347.50 call for $1.15

Aren't you at an interview?

 

[Tslynk67]

A close over 335 would be nice.

Elon didn't get where he was going for 335 close, have some vision man - 340 or bust!

 

[vgrinshpun]

Quite honestly if I had $6mln of net-equity I wont go on margin at all. Why bother? 6mln is a great amount of money to begin with. Even with plain vanilla TSLA with no margin and no options, that portfolio has potential to grow much bigger... I find myself puzzled at your mental model.

May be @TrendTrader007 will reply, but this is my sense of what the mental model possibly is:

1. It's just the money...
2. Boring

 

[Italia81]

$400-450+ may be needed for a squeeze.

I think shorts will try to hold on for as long as their brokers allow.

That sounds right, maybe a little earlier. High conviction shorts for institutional investors are generally much smaller positions than high conviction longs. The key with any short, especially a volatile equity like TSLA, is sizing. Plus...they are waiting for their catalyst, which they think could be July - Dec.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This is nuts. Oil is down and looks to be only headed lower.....no problem.

The Woz comments really struck a chord with some folks I guess.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

That sounds right, maybe a little earlier. High conviction shorts for institutional investors are generally much smaller positions than high conviction longs. The key with any short, especially a volatile equity like TSLA, is sizing. Plus...they are waiting for their catalyst, which they think could be July - Dec.

I'm genuinely glad you think they're sized according to the upside risk.

 

[GoTslaGo]

This is nuts. Oil is down and looks to be only headed lower.....no problem.

The Woz comments really struck a chord with some folks I guess.

I think so. He did work directly with Jobs and has first hand knowledge of what made him tick. For him to identify Elon as essentially the next Jobs is quite an endorsement.

Edit: typos

 

[Italia81]

I'm genuinely glad you think they're sized according to the upside risk.

If you have evidence to the contrary please submit. Most funds I know are short 200-300 bps.

 

[Starno]

335,10 close.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

If you have evidence to the contrary please submit. Most funds I know are short 200-300 bps.

With $10B+ short, 200-300 bps sizing would require $350-500B short AUM.

Unlikely.

Chanos, who's probably one of the biggest TSLA shorts if not biggest, has $2-3B AUM with 70% in top 10.

Seems to me some firms may have majority AUM in TSLA short.

This is why I'm worried about their wellbeing.

 

[ELRev]

This thread is quite the roller-coaster ride.

For a pretty inexperienced investor like myself, a single sentence or "piece of advice/piece of not-advice" can throw my mind for one heck of a loop. I'd consider myself a TSLA long that catches a bit of a short "cold" every so often.

I've bought and sold TSLA a dozen or so times in the last year, when I first started investing, and have increased my position from about 40% of my very modest portfolio to about 95% over that same period. On a whim just before close today, I sold my 322 shares that started out at $70,000 cash last April at $335.62. With the prospect of buying a Model 3 on the horizon, I couldn't turn down such a green pasture like today's rise. But of course, I sit here now hopeful that a dip sometime this week gives me an opportunity to buy back in and start all over again.

In any case, just a celebratory throw-away comment from a young, inexperienced investor who loves this company like you all do and can't thank each of you enough for helping me stay informed.

Cheers.

 

[TMSE]

So I'm thinking that all this talk of a double top was more of a bear trap.

Lately, I have acquired a taste for bear meat. Slow roasted, sautéed, barbecued, steamed.. all good. Yum yum yum

 

[D-egg-O]

Aren't you at an interview?

Done. Came home in time to make some more trades. I guess that's a good sign, right? That final hour was fun.

 

[dw4ngg]

TT007 is probably kicking himself for not taking out a home equity loan and leveraging whatever he can for his children to buy TSLA last Friday.....

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Done. Came home in time to make some more trades. I guess that's a good sign, right? That final hour was fun.

Did you kill it or what?

 

[dw4ngg]

On a side note, wtf is up with LULU

 

[Italia81]

With $10B+ short, 200-300 bps sizing would require $350-500B short AUM.

Unlikely.

Chanos, who's probably one of the biggest TSLA if not biggest, has $2-3B AUM with 70% in top 10.

Seems to me some firms may have majority AUM in TSLA short.

This is why I'm worried about their wellbeing.

That is a good way to back into it. There might be some cowboys out there. However, HF assets are $3T and L/S equity is a big component. You'd have to consider retail investors as well.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

That is a good way to back into it. There might be some cowboys out there. However, HF assets are $3T and L/S equity is a big component. You'd have to consider retail investors as well.

Lots of retail investors on the short side for sure, but they can't move the needle.

It could only take one institutional cowboy getting squeezed out before a domino effect takes them all out.

No way to know for sure when this could happen, but my guess is ~$400-450. We'll see.

Their biggest problem is that they've been so freakin' public about it that I'm sure some clients are thinking about pulling out.

 

[GoTslaGo]

On a side note, wtf is up with LULU

All retail is flat/down. LULU only down 0.48% for the day. Suspect could also be sector rotation driven. Doubt retail is going to be a killer market for the summer. Now the holiday periods, different story...