Admittedly, I am not an expert nor do I have professional experience in this area. My speculation was based on the information obtained in this twitter exchange I had with the expert.
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Admittedly, I am not an expert nor do I have professional experience in this area. My speculation was based on the information obtained in this twitter exchange I had with the expert.
Returning them to their owners so they don't have to pay interest on shares no one is borrowing. This reasoning is based on the fact that my shares were borrowed by Fidelity on Friday and returned this morning.
Maybe they anticipated shorts would make a stand against the ATH today. That might mean that Fidelity's available shares are based on their brokers' best guess of what demand for shares to borrow will be on a given day, balanced against the interest they have to pay to lenders to have the shares to make available.
You mean like telling the frog, I mean shorts, please stay in the pot, isn't the water nice and cozy. Don't worry about the heat....
Cobos
Good question. Here's my thought experiment:
1) Sell them for a profit--make money, lose shares.
2) Use the shares as collateral--get money, lock shares up.
..................This includes using them for selling covered calls........
..................Or just borrowing money from the bank against the shares................
3) Leave shares alone to appreciate--make no immediate money, but assuming rising prices will boost books.
4) Lend shares for shorts--we can assume they are not doing this based on @vgrinshpun's data.
anything else I am missing?
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Adam Jonas today, in another note, two weeks after his downgrade to EW:
Share price appreciation and the concept of escape velocity. Sometimes it takes an extreme valuation milestone to create a collective ‘wake-up call’ as to what really is the underlying driver of a stock price. Some of our clients who felt Tesla was a short at a $20bn market cap are now staring at a stock worth materially more than Ford. How could the stock market do this? What is the stock market telling us? Some of the same investors we speak with today may still have a negative bias as to Tesla’s ability to fund itself as a car manufacturer, but are beginning to ask if there could be other forces at work. Is Tesla even trying to be a car company? Tesla is spending $4bn to $5bn per year on R&D + Capex. This is enough money to build 3 large auto plants. Surely this money can’t be directed at making cars. But these are real dollars... where is it all going? Is the size of the debate taking on a self-fulfilling quality whereby the company can fundamentally achieve an escape velocity that could see it being a self- financing/self-sustaining enterprise?
Share price appreciation and the concept of escape velocity. Sometimes it takes an extreme valuation milestone to create a collective ‘wake-up call’ as to what really is the underlying driver of a stock price. Some of our clients who felt Tesla was a short at a $20bn market cap are now staring at a stock worth materially more than Ford. How could the stock market do this? What is the stock market telling us? Some of the same investors we speak with today may still have a negative bias as to Tesla’s ability to fund itself as a car manufacturer, but are beginning to ask if there could be other forces at work. Is Tesla even trying to be a car company? Tesla is spending $4bn to $5bn per year on R&D + Capex. This is enough money to build 3 large auto plants. Surely this money can’t be directed at making cars. But these are real dollars... where is it all going? Is the size of the debate taking on a self-fulfilling quality whereby the company can fundamentally achieve an escape velocity that could see it being a self- financing/self-sustaining enterprise?
mmd
Active Member
I'm sorry, but from where did he get these numbers? The R&D expenses and capexes are clearly stated in shareholder letters, and also noted in SEC filings. Does Adam Jonas read these reports? Total R&D spending in 2016 was $833M (Q1 $182M, Q2 $191M, Q3 $214M, Q4 $246M). Q4 2015 was $190M and Q1 2017 was $322M. That's an average of $224M per quarter, or ~$900M a year.
Below are the capex numbers from Tesla's own Q4 2016 letter (highlighting mine). Capex has actually decreased compared to 2015. Capex of $1.2B + R&D of $833M doesn't reach $4bn to $5bn. IMHO, Adam Jonas is better off sticking to his 2025 and 2030 numbers that can't be fact checked for years.
Such a noted analyst surely could put these numbers next to other automakers' numbers to give us some reference points.
As for his question on where the money is going; he should probably read the SEC filings and quarterly reports.
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Meanwhile, back at the ranch... Has been a tremendous run the last few trading sessions, but we have the SHolders meeting next week, which could, once again, push things in either direction.
A re-affirmation of M3 schedule would surely be a positive, but we saw in Q1ER that this had little impact.
On the other hand, I get the impression that there's a continual expectation for Elon to pull a golden, battery-defecating unicorn from his posterior every time, and if this doesn't happen we could could see a pull-back.
WDWT?
A re-affirmation of M3 schedule would surely be a positive, but we saw in Q1ER that this had little impact.
On the other hand, I get the impression that there's a continual expectation for Elon to pull a golden, battery-defecating unicorn from his posterior every time, and if this doesn't happen we could could see a pull-back.
WDWT?
Runarbt
Active Member
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Has there been any instance of shareholders meeting comments pushing the stock down?
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jschwefel
Tesla fan/TSLA, Model Y and Cybertruck owner.
He is talking in present tense, while you are playing with numbers from the past. Alternative fact checking?
Based on Q1 shareholder's letter, the projected Q2 R&D and CapEx come up to $1B, which is $4B yearly rate. Looks like AJ assumes that these projections are low, and, therefore, is giving a range of $4 to $5B.
Your #covfefe may vary.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Can anyone with professional trading experience, or an individual with high confidence of correct knowledge, please answer the following questions?
- What will it take for a short squeeze to materialize (certain price level? volume? news?)
- Is it possible to predict how long a short squeeze will last?
- Is it possible to predict how high the stock will go?
- Is it possible to predict how low the stock will drop following a short squeeze, if at all?
- What else should I be asking you?
ValueAnalyst
Closed
IF a short squeeze ensues in the coming days/weeks, everyone should keep in mind that the stock will be extremely volatile, and 10-50% swings in stock price will occur.
I currently have a moderate amount of margin, and I intend to gradually allow the margin percentage to decline throughout a short squeeze, while I continue to hold my core position for several years.
I am NOT going to try to time a short squeeze.
I am NOT going to over-leverage to the extent that a 50% downswing can wipe me off.
It's better to make some money than get greedy and lose it all even if your long-term call was right.
I currently have a moderate amount of margin, and I intend to gradually allow the margin percentage to decline throughout a short squeeze, while I continue to hold my core position for several years.
I am NOT going to try to time a short squeeze.
I am NOT going to over-leverage to the extent that a 50% downswing can wipe me off.
It's better to make some money than get greedy and lose it all even if your long-term call was right.
jhm
Well-Known Member
How long does the price mellow around $335? I suspect $350 will be our next big jump. All in good time.
BTW, I have come to accept that speculating about short squeezes is a huge wast of time. To easily longs just project their own outlook on those who have a fundamentally different outlook. So we are pretty much doomed to see what we hope to see or fear to see. I think the better questions are about what motivates longs to buy more stock. Here at least we are more self-reflective, self-aware, self-critical. Am I ready to buy at this price? If not, what am I waiting to see? At what price would I be ready to sell? If I am holding, what am I waiting for?
For my part, I'd like to see the price solidify and drop back to $300 before I acquire more. That said I'm waiting for retirement to sell of little chunks. If I am going to acquire more, it's got to be at a discount.
BTW, I have come to accept that speculating about short squeezes is a huge wast of time. To easily longs just project their own outlook on those who have a fundamentally different outlook. So we are pretty much doomed to see what we hope to see or fear to see. I think the better questions are about what motivates longs to buy more stock. Here at least we are more self-reflective, self-aware, self-critical. Am I ready to buy at this price? If not, what am I waiting to see? At what price would I be ready to sell? If I am holding, what am I waiting for?
For my part, I'd like to see the price solidify and drop back to $300 before I acquire more. That said I'm waiting for retirement to sell of little chunks. If I am going to acquire more, it's got to be at a discount.
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erha
Member
It is trading at all time high in pre market right now at $336.60. If we get a similar run today as yesterday this is going to be a tough week for shorts.
I think the SHolders meeting next week only will bring positive news. In my experience Elon doesn't let the public know about delays and problems unless ha has to.
I think the SHolders meeting next week only will bring positive news. In my experience Elon doesn't let the public know about delays and problems unless ha has to.
DurandalAI
Member
I get the warm fuzzies thinking about where Tesla, and especially TSLA SP will be in 2022. *purrs*
by 2022, my Model 3 will probably have 60,000+ miles or my CPO S85 >100,000+ miles
MartinAustin
Active Member
$337.62 in pre-market... feels like mid-2013 again
(now $337.73)
(now $337.73)
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