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FWIW, the 1929 drop in the Dow (most of the other indexes didn't exist yet) was *89%*.
Thanks to TSLA, I'm actually to the point where I'd survive this with my (rather frugal) lifestyle intact, which is gobsmacking since I would never have imagined that would happen.
Although India won't want to let Tesla 'game the system' by dragging out temporary relief for too long. Would be setting a bad example for other companies looking to get into India.
Yup. Only have to go back 16-17 years for the 78% drop in the Nasdaq. This took my other stock holding of the past 18 years down roughly the equivalent of TSLA falling back into the $70s from here. Being able to hold core shares, fortunate enough to be there for bull thesis to deliver a 60 bagger. I think Tesla is likely to meet or beat that : ) Bottom line, I like to keep my core shares super safe.
Here is a graph of the 2008 VW short squeeze, including price every 10 minutes:
File:VW-Intraday-oct2008.png - Wikimedia Commons
I see a price top of 999,0200195 at 9 AM on October 28th 2008. Probably went even higher than this before it went down again.
File:VW-Intraday-oct2008.png - Wikimedia Commons
I see a price top of 999,0200195 at 9 AM on October 28th 2008. Probably went even higher than this before it went down again.
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Frankly, I want Tesla to issue a secondary offering at this point. You remember the last one -- in March -- was at $262. That was enough to derisk the company through Model 3 production. But with such a sharp runup so fast, I would be in favor of derisking even more, to the point where Tesla could survive, for example, the failure of the bank syndicate which is supplying its revolving loans. Also, accelerate the construction of the next few factories. 
Ihor Dusaniwsky @ihors3 3 minutes ago
$TSLA short interest is $11.15 billion as stock price continues to rise.Shorts down $1.04 billion in June MTM losses. @S3Partners @elonmusk
$TSLA short interest is $11.15 billion as stock price continues to rise.Shorts down $1.04 billion in June MTM losses. @S3Partners @elonmusk
VW short squeeze comes up here a lot. Just wanted to point out that Adam Jonas called it a few weeks in advance.
Squeezy money
I don't agree with everything Jonas writes, and more than once he seems to play some gamesmanship with Tesla, but his writing is worth sifting through for the insightful. He saw Tesla's potential circa 2010/11, and had a very insightful thorough visionary report of an EV future with a TSLA price target of at least $70, might of even been about $100 (I am aware he later dropped that target quite a bit).
Squeezy money
I don't agree with everything Jonas writes, and more than once he seems to play some gamesmanship with Tesla, but his writing is worth sifting through for the insightful. He saw Tesla's potential circa 2010/11, and had a very insightful thorough visionary report of an EV future with a TSLA price target of at least $70, might of even been about $100 (I am aware he later dropped that target quite a bit).
I think Tesla is a good bet for India. Musk will be very anxious to get the factory into production--especially batteries for export! A worry I would have is supplier and labor interruptions or other corruption delaying construction and into production because of vagaries of Indian economy and local politics. But those could be built into protections for Tesla in the agreement.
There are some very smart and powerful businessmen in the country. Important who is advising Musk there--potential partners?
I agree. Tesla should derisk as much as practical right now. There is much greater risk of deceleration in US stock market and economy than there is of continued growth. Global disarray couple with US disarray means 'strike while the iron is hot" is a wise move.Frankly, I want Tesla to issue a secondary offering at this point. You remember the last one -- in March -- was at $262. That was enough to derisk the company through Model 3 production. But with such a sharp runup so fast, I would be in favor of derisking even more, to the point where Tesla could survive, for example, the failure of the bank syndicate which is supplying its revolving loans. Also, accelerate the construction of the next few factories.
I see the value of de-risking but wonder whether an opportunistic cap raise like that might potentially derail the nice steady climb we've been experiencing?
In any case, my hunch (which could easily be wrong) is that they will do a cap raise after the Semi Reveal. They will then have a clear rationale for the ask -- to build the Semi, the new fast charging network (probably) and GFs 3,4 and 5 (maybe details on some locations will be ready), plus complete the Model 3 ramp. With any luck will have released initial incarnation of FSD and have a visible TE ramp. SP could easily be far higher than today.
Thank you. Based on today's closing price my initial TSLA shares purchased in early 2013 are now indeed 10-baggers.
Thirty percent of those were sold last July when I moved out of an apartment and paid cash for a brand new home. In early November I bought some SCTY shares as an arbitrage play, while they were trading under the offered conversion ratio for TSLA shares. When they actually converted to TSLA shares in late November, I owned a little more TSLA than ever. Despite my original intention to sell those new shares right after their conversion, I kept them at what appeared to be a significant medium term bottom and still have them.
Now I'm patiently waiting for TSLA to reach $1,858.40 when my SCTY/TSLA shares will become 10-baggers.
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Unless someone has a better reason for the June run up in SP, my guess is the market is coming on board that Model 3 will actually begin production when Tesla has been saying it would. We've seen a few instances where SP increased in the weeks before an ER when positive results were expected. On occasions when the ER delivered the expected positives, the SP didn't go up much afterwards. That movement had already occurred. My question to the forum is this: if the reveal 2 and start of production happens by end of July as hoped, will SP see much further increase? Thoughts? I think @EinSV is right that the Semi Reveal end of September may be the event that takes TSLA to $400 and beyond. If that turns out to be the case, then my guess would be the next significant rise might happen near end of Q4 when it becomes clear if the aggressive ramping forecast has happened.
One other issue is dilution. I suspect Elon may want to wait until model 3 is up and running. I believe he gets a bonus when the Model 3 is out. This would boost his total shares, so if there is another equity offering, he won't get diluted out and lose control. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
And I don't want him to lose control.
And I don't want him to lose control.
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Frankly, I want Tesla to issue a secondary offering at this point. You remember the last one -- in March -- was at $262. That was enough to derisk the company through Model 3 production. But with such a sharp runup so fast, I would be in favor of derisking even more, to the point where Tesla could survive, for example, the failure of the bank syndicate which is supplying its revolving loans. Also, accelerate the construction of the next few factories.
I'll take the other side on this. If Tesla can achieve the sg&a leverage that management has mentioned several times, once it reaches 10,000 Model 3's per week, say even in 18 months (I think sooner), it'll be generating more than $10B in steady-state cash flow annually. That's enough cash to build 5+ Gigafactories simultaneously over five years and significantly expand Supercharger network and sales/service centers, so cash flow just snowballs from there. Remember that model y cap-ex will be significantly less than model 3 and come to market quicker, and Semi will share many of the same components as model 3...
Combined with the very long waiting list for model 3, already conservatively run balance sheet, and ability to dial back growth rate if need be, I don't see enough benefit to further diluting existing shareholders...
I think at this point it's important to seriously disable the shorts for good. Otherwise they will come back to hurt the company down the road. Whatever shorts want Tesla to do at this time, Tesla should do the opposite.
Longs are adding because we understand this company is on track to become a trillion dollar company. Momentum traders are buying because they saw a cup&handle breakout with huge upside potential.
Some shorts are forced to cover. So who can sell to balance all the purchase? I know some shorts want to short more, but they probably don't have many more billions to throw at this after losing almost $10B on it.
Ron Baron is right this is going to $1000 by 2020. How it will get there is the billion dollar question. My approach is buy and hold. Save money, keep buying.
Longs are adding because we understand this company is on track to become a trillion dollar company. Momentum traders are buying because they saw a cup&handle breakout with huge upside potential.
Some shorts are forced to cover. So who can sell to balance all the purchase? I know some shorts want to short more, but they probably don't have many more billions to throw at this after losing almost $10B on it.
Ron Baron is right this is going to $1000 by 2020. How it will get there is the billion dollar question. My approach is buy and hold. Save money, keep buying.
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I'll be surprised if the sp waits until September to rise above $400. We're no where near fairly valued even after discounting future cash flows at 10%, which given Tesla's significant moat, some would argue is conservative.
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