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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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I am not an expert on this by any means, but I think it is a mistake to think that Tesla will be "Splitting the profit 50/50" with a partner. I assume the way that this works is that Tesla sets up a new company, something like "Tesla Shanghai manufacturing Corp", and that company goes into business 50/50 with the Chinese partner. The joint partnership will make the cars and sell them to Tesla parent company at some wholesale rate that gives the joint venture a return on investment, but is not half the profit of the final car sale. It would be crazy for the partner to get half the profit from the autopilot, that they had no part in developing, the marketing and sales they didn't pay for, etc. I don't think the profit side of things is a concern for a joint partnership. On the other hand, the intellectual property issues are a real concern, as well as the prospect of state meddling.
My hope on the intellectual property front is that most of the secret sauce in the manufacturing process is the software to control the robots, not the line itself, and it will be developed in CA, then simply implemented in the Chinese factory. Elon has hinted at this I believe, talking about the factory as a product, and mentioned the complexity of the software in the last earnings call. Hopefully they can just license the factory process, and software, as a product to the joint venture, and don't have to give them the source code for it.
 
特斯拉两年谈判终落地:牵手上海国企落户临港 - 21经济网

Some juicy detail:
1. Negotiation started 2 years ago
2. All along Tesla had asked too much to reach an agreement with the Shanghai Government, until now
3. The production will be equivalent to that of Gigafactory 1 in Nevada.
4. The joint venture partner will be a state-owned enterprise (SOE), which is not a conventional auto manufacturer
5. An extra benefit to joint venture with an SOE is that there should have no issue of raising capital
6. The joint venture can sell lots of "new energy credit" to other passenger vehicle manufacturers who do not have enough credit, as the new energy credit is required to be 8%, 10%, 12% for 2018, 2019, 2020, respectively for passenger vehicle manufacturers.

My question is: how fast the Shanghai Gigafactory can be built to claim such credit?
Wow. That looks like a license to print money.
 
You know the rules people! :D

(Start at time 3:35)
My favourite commentary on human nature and getting employees, colleagues, or (gasp!) management/executives to understand what they're doing. How could they come up with such a simple scene to point out the difficulties with human communication so well? That and the rabbit with big, nasty teeth.
 
Thanks, that helps to calculate different scenarious.
However, I still do not understand what happens if the price goes below the strike. E.g. I sold 10 contracts of a 300 strike put and the price is $299.99 today. Does the put execute immediately? Based on my calculations, margin requirement will be not enough to buy 1000 shares of TSLA for $300. What happens then?
 
State-owned enterprise being the partner underscores the seriousness of the Chinese government in accelerating the adoption of BEVs in China. Not only is China's GHG emissions a problem for the entire world, the populations of China's biggest cities can't see where they're going! And even the simple act of breathing doesn't have the usual pro-life benefits. They need BEVs so bad, it's in the public interest to get it done now rather than wait for independent for-profit companies to ooze in from outside with their cautious business plans.

TSLA will end the day around $385 IMO, unless some major analyst weighs in today with some bullish sentiment. (in which case... higher)
 
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