2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[22522]

There is only one line shared for S/X as well. My guess is that it's not so much one linear line and that there are stations in the line where 2 or more cars are being built in parallel for slower processes so that the rest of the line doesn't have to show down to the level of slowest process. I could certainly be wrong about that though.

I would split after paint and never come back together. Mostly to keep the material feed manageable and avoid internal material handling. The idea is the robot picks from a truck and somehow you have to get rid of the old pallet and put a new one in.

 

[geneclean55]

Impressive strength from TSLA while the QQQs were selling into the close.

 

[geneclean55]

Technicals are pretty well setup for a fall. Its not that unlikely we see the low 350s. If anyone is thinking about us breaking 400 this week, I'd be a little careful about betting the farm on short term calls. I'm obviously still quite bullish, July is right around the corner, etc etc.

"Not an advice"

Impressive relative strength from TSLA into the close. Didn't even lose the 8 day SMA.

 

[geneclean55]

You don't always need Tesla specific news to explain a dump. Look at how closely TSLA tracks the QQQs today. The only real (nice) divergence that I see is the relative strength of TSLA into the close.

 

[jhm]

Ok, I'm gonna have to hold back on turn this mutha out. But this feels like we'll flip right back and hit a new ATH in a day or too. In the meantime...

 

[AlMc]

Ok, I'm gonna have to hold back on turn this mutha out. But this feels like we'll flip right back and hit a new ATH in a day or too. In the meantime...

@jhm, you have always been a TSLA bull but recently you are getting absolutely TT 007 like.

Were you sharing some wine with him in Paris?

 

[Starno]

Tomorrow close 395,42

Now I know why I should stick to my core values and care only about fundamentals and long term

 

[Mike Smith]

29,049,111 short interest on Jun 15

 

[jhm]

@jhm, you have always been a TSLA bull but recently you are getting absolutely TT 007 like.

Were you sharing some wine with him in Paris?

Nah, just enjoying the ride.

 

[geneclean55]

29,049,111 short interest on Jun 15

A significant degree of covering.
Not sure what to make of Ihor's S3 data.

 

[Turing]

A significant degree of covering.
Not sure what to make of Ihor's S3 data.

Seems like S3 data was fairly close for the period.
https://www.s3partners.net/Research/BestWorst12.php

I don't know if i would classify 6% drop in short interest as a "significant degree of covering" from the previous report.

If you take his 10.8Billion number and divide by closing price on 6/16 you get around 29.2M shares sold short.

 

[Turing]

Based on his after close comment today S3 has short interest currently pegged at 29.4M

 

[Mike Smith]

Seems like S3 data was fairly close for the period.
https://www.s3partners.net/Research/BestWorst12.php

I don't know if i would classify 6% drop in short interest as a "significant degree of covering" from the previous report.

Exactly. This doesn't even account for trimming, never mind covering. The short position in dollars is growing.

 

[geneclean55]

Based on his after close comment today S3 has short interest currently pegged at 29.4M

Yes! Was just figuring that out on my calculator

 

[geneclean55]

Exactly. This doesn't even account for trimming, never mind covering. The short position in dollars is growing.

How do you distinguish between trimming and covering? Absolute Short interest is down regardless. Unless the concern is that shorts are just waiting to dive back in.

 

[Mike Smith]

How do you distinguish between trimming and covering? Absolute Short interest is down regardless. Unless the concern is that shorts are just waiting to dive back in.

As the share price rises your short position in dollars grows, so you have to trim a percentage of your position equal to the percentage rise in the share price in order to keep your position from growing.

 

[geneclean55]

As the share price rises your short position in dollars grows, so you have to trim a percentage of your position equal to the percentage rise in the share price in order to keep your position from growing.

Right. I get that.
Sounds very similar to a 'short-covering rally' as described here by others.

 

[SBenson]

Turns out that S3 data is lot closer than MarkIt actually.

Exchange data is for trading day of 6/12 - 29,049,111
MarkIt for 6/12 - 26.911 mln
S3 for 6/12 - 29.82 mln

Subsequently S3 suggests that the SI is flat in shares. If this is true, then the rally is largely due to higher demand for shares on the long side.

On one hand I'm disappointed that shorts are not pinned against the wall as I hoped.

But on the other hand, the fire works are yet to come!!!

During the 2013 short covering rally, short interest in shares actually fell by almost 14mln shares(42%) from north of 32mln shares to about 18.5mln shares... That was subsequently replaced by (presumably) newer shorts up in later 2013, which is less relevant.

 

[Off Shore]

I've learned to embrace the shorts. FUD and retail short speculators create opportunity for us. It's BECAUSE tesla is such a polarizing story that it has been a great long term investment

AND, on occasion, an intelligent short comes up with valid concerns that should be considered by conviction buyers such as myself.

I certainly don't answer my phone for unknown callers and likewise it's completely pointless to engage trolls. Their just doing their job.

And TSLAs SP should be interesting this week.

As a heavy user of the "i" button, I have to ask: Have any of those intelligent shorts' valid concerns changed your investment strategy? I'm here for information about the cars, the company and the stock, as well as to participate in the community. I just don't want to spend my time reading carbon-industry-funded psy-ops.

 

[EinSV]

Right. I get that.
Sounds very similar to a 'short-covering rally' as described here by others.

Pretty interesting. Only about 2M net shares covered from 2/28-6/15, when the SP went up 50 percent -- from $249.99 to $375.34.

Almost all of the 2M shares covered were between 6/1 and 6/15 so covering has likely had some impact in those two weeks (maybe flat since then based on Ibor's tweet.) Lots of short fuel to speed things along if buying pressure keeps up.