2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[elasalle]

I've heard that "Margin Calls" can inflict pain

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

How about this "article" from Tesla's website:

Tesla - Statement of Beneficial Ownership

"The 8,167,544 shares of Issuer common stock were acquired by the reporting persons in a registered offering of common stock by the Issuer on March 17, 2017 and through open market purchases, for an aggregate purchase price of $1,777,842,836 (including commission)."

yes... I see the "and through open market purchases"... but like I said... Tesla was trading at $218 on Jan 3 and $261 on March 17th... so how is this not a discount when the avg is below the beginning of the quarter of which they were not an investor prior?

What makes you think Tencent started buying on Jan 3rd? Do you think they're US based hedge fund that had to report 13F, or whatever you guys over there call it? Their first req. to report was 5%
And you know that March 17th was a public secondary with well understood price, no discount for 'special' buyers...

 

[Reciprocity]

Yeah, except the SG&A is not incuded in cost of goods sold (COGS) and not part of gross margin calculation. So it is not apples to apples gross margin comparison against other automakers. Please check the quarterly letters sometimes, Here is from Q4 2016.


From Page 3:

View attachment 232920

From page 7:
$435M/$2284M = 19.05 % gross margin. SG&A has been clubbed in Opex, to artificially inflate the gross margin.
If even half of the SG&A was cost of operating the stores & service centers ( I suspect more) and subtracted from gross profits, the gross margin will be < 10% easily.


View attachment 232921

Cogs shmogs is what I say. I think margins are more like 1000 because after you drive the car for 10 years, you can turn it into a taxi and make money from it for 100 years while Tesla collects a commission. So GM is more like 1000% or more in some countries.

This is an example of how silly your posts are.. It's a lot of uneducated nonsense like what I wrote above. You are not alone though, just follow $tsla on Twitter if you want to see real nonsense.

 

[MXWing]

I personally feel the '3' will be well received and will sell very well.

That is my opinion but to say 'it is 'simply way too good of a car' sounds like you are stating a fact when (correct me if I am wrong) you and I have not seen the release vehicle, sat in it or driven it.

Well.. when I first saw the picture below, the words that entered in my mind was "LOOK HOW FACKING (or some derivative of that) SEXY that roof line looks. I have excellent tastes so this bodes well for bulls.

From what I know:

1 - It's fast. Quicker than any ICE econobox/coupe/two seater/chick car (Miata)
2 - I can say "Play Wanna Build a Snowman from Frozen" and it will do it which makes my daughter happy.
3 - It has a PX2 Drive Unit and AP2 suite. I can transfer the silky smooth drunk teenager experience over from the X to the 3.
4 - It has super charging. Unlike a Bolt, I can drive more than 100 miles before turning around.
5 - I can park it in the garage, run the AC, listen to music and hide from the wife and not die from CO2.
6 - Stepping on the "gas" on any Tesla, is a marvel period. Even the oldest of the oldest Model S's feel awesome compared to any ICE.

Us Tesla owners can already approximate the experience and I personally have not seen any show stoppers. Obviously, someone might have a different opinion than me but my question to them is:

Ok - give me a better option for 35k?

 

[AlMc]

Well.. when I first saw the picture below, the words that entered in my mind was "LOOK HOW FACKING (or some derivative of that) SEXY that roof line looks. I have excellent tastes so this bodes well for bulls.

From what I know:

1 - It's fast. Quicker than any ICE econobox/coupe/two seater/chick car (Miata)
2 - I can say "Play Wanna Build a Snowman from Frozen" and it will do it which makes my daughter happy.
3 - It has a PX2 Drive Unit and AP2 suite. I can transfer the silky smooth drunk teenager experience over from the X to the 3.
4 - It has super charging. Unlike a Bolt, I can drive more than 100 miles before turning around.
5 - I can park it in the garage, run the AC, listen to music and hide from the wife and not die from CO2.
6 - Stepping on the "gas" on any Tesla, is a marvel period. Even the oldest of the oldest Model S's feel awesome compared to any ICE.

Us Tesla owners can already approximate the experience and I personally have not seen any show stoppers. Obviously, someone might have a different opinion than me but my question to them is:

Ok - give me a better option for 35k?

View attachment 232930

I also 'expect' it to be an excellent car with very few, if any, competitors.

Until I actually see one, sit in one and drive one it is an opinion without first hand experience.

I have enjoyed my two Ss. Better than I expected.

I then expected the X to be everything promised and was personally disappointed ( many were not and as a stock holder I am happy about that ).
So, iI apologize if I want to see/sit in and drive it before I can give a first hand appraisal.

I will buy at least one without having sat in or driven it as I only saw it on a recent factory tour.

 

[MXWing]

I also 'expect' it to be an excellent car with very few, if any, competitors.

Until I actually see one, sit in one and drive one it is an opinion without first hand experience.

I have enjoyed my two Ss. Better than I expected.

I then expected the X to be everything promised and was personally disappointed ( many were not and as a stock holder I am happy about that ).
So, iI apologize if I want to see/sit in and drive it before I can give a first hand appraisal.

I will buy at least one without having sat in or driven it as I only saw it on a recent factory tour.

The X can be considered a weirdmobile and it is not for everyone I can agree with that. It fits the needs for some people and completely let's down others.

I think we can be very optimistic then when it comes to the 3 because it's the "anti-x". Not just my opinion but paraphrasing Elons own words and their design philosophy going into it.

The every man car that can be cranked out en masse. Shorts are dead. Small window to cover at discount.

By being bearish/cautiously optimistic you are only guaranteeing the purchase of 1 M3.

 

[kbM3]

??? Do you have comprehension issues? SG&A high/low is immaterial. Part of the SG&A needs to be included in COGS to make gross margin comparison to other car makers.. I did not say it is a third item. That is irrelevant.

Actually, yes I do have comprehension problems. It is very difficult to comprehend why you post on this forum. There are only two reasons that I can think of:

1) You are being compensated. This is very sad when you think about it. It pains me to imagine that someone has to stoop to that to earn a living.

2) You enjoy trolling. I can't imagine what it would be like to get pleasure from an activity like this. This actually makes me feel sympathy for you.

 

[kbM3]

What have Ford and GM researched and developed in the last century?

You don't need to be "financially savvy" to see the FUD for what it is.

Just open your eyes.

My eyes are open. I am retired and long with 50% of my net worth. However, the only way this bet pays off, is if Tesla's expenses do not scale proportionally to their revenue.

I am aware that their current R&D is focused on many areas that they are not currently receiving revenue from and should thus taper off over time.
Hopefully the same thing happens with SG&A. I think it is hopeful that they are trying to look at ways to make selling and servicing of cars more efficient. I.e. Increasing Ranger service and expediting sales processes.

I think these are legitimate issues to keep an eye on for all investors and as I stated earlier it is the only rational concern I have seen expressed by shorts. The competition argument in particular is a complete non-issue.

I do realize that Tesla's cash burn is not high considering they have been growing at approximately 50% and seem to be increasing that to a staggering 100% rate in an incredibly capital intensive business.

 

[AnneBoleyn]

Parisians seem to love their little bitty electric cars and scooters but surprisingly all over Paris did not see a single Tesla. I bet once M3 comes out there will be huge demand for Tesla there. I also realized that Americans work way too hard compared to the French who seem to take life at a much leisurely pace and seem much healthier and happier than us except for their damn smoking which I can not stand! I bet there is high incidence of Lung Cancer in Paris.
On a side note, as stated earlier I finally added to my position today after my last buy on May 30th and 31st. While it did bring up my cost basis by a few dollars I wanted to increase my position to as much as I can reasonably carry since I'm fully expecting a severe meltup in TSLA shares in short order. If you study the way super stocks move then TSLA chart is pretty much sticking to the script. There are numerous examples of stocks that double or triple in short order and TSLA is acting just like that on daily charts. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a 50 to 80% rally from current level over the next 3 months or so. Regardless of the time frame if TSLA goes up by another 50 to 80% or so from here within this year then we're looking at $565 to $678. Actual numbers don't matter, my hypothesis is that if there is a sustained parabolic rise in a relatively short period of time then I'll sell everything, every last share and every last call and get the hell out of dodge for several days to weeks or even couple of months and then buy it back closer to a longer term moving average
Money for nothing and chicks for free
There is no glory in being ultra cautious when the Gods of stock market are smiling on you and wanna give you outstanding profits. Similarly there is no excuse for being super bullish at the end of a major move and giving up 40 to 90% of your profits (stock vs calls) . Only suckers do it
So I'm fearlessly bullish at this time with hugely leveraged portfolio but when the time comes I'll dump this thing like there is no tomorrow
And lots of us posting on this board will act as contrarian indicators
Right now I see more caution than unbridled enthusiasm
When every TDH and their cousin start singing praises of TSLA and extol their obscene paper profits then I'll sell

The best thing for me about Paris was going without social media, which was incredibly rewarding and liberating. As predicted, the stock went up the end of that week. I cannot speak for this week, but perhaps it was meant to be a well deserved, worry free vacation with high prices and records broken. The only chance I'll ever have. But the lack of Tesla vehicles in a predominately eco driven city was astounding

 

[MartinAustin]

View attachment 232930

I'm disappointed to see that like the S and X before it, the 3 has no grab handles, and probably not very much for passengers to hold on to. At least it has conventional door handles which are easier to find and hold (than the slippery aluminum handles on the S).

Oh wait, this is the TSLA stock forum. Ahem. Tuesday, I see a recovery from Monday's losses.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

My eyes are open. I am retired and long with 50% of my net worth. However, the only way this bet pays off, is if Tesla's expenses do not scale proportionally to their revenue.

I am aware that their current R&D is focused on many areas that they are not currently receiving revenue from and should thus taper off over time.
Hopefully the same thing happens with SG&A. I think it is hopeful that they are trying to look at ways to make selling and servicing of cars more efficient. I.e. Increasing Ranger service and expediting sales processes.

I think these are legitimate issues to keep an eye on for all investors and as I stated earlier it is the only rational concern I have seen expressed by shorts. The competition argument in particular is a complete non-issue.

I do realize that Tesla's cash burn is not high considering they have been growing at approximately 50% and seem to be increasing that to a staggering 100% rate in an incredibly capital intensive business.

I actually expect sg&a leverage to be greater than r&d leveerage in 2018-2020, as Tesla continues to invest heavily in r&d of new products and services.

 

[mmd]

The problem is that the comp is not going to be straight forward for quite some time. Since Tesla is still expanding automotive platforms and segments as well as developing non-automotive products as well as taking on the dealership portion, sorting out what goes into what buckets for a straight comparison is difficult. Tesla is a fleeing automaker with one product that has seen a full development cycle.. 4-7 years and the Model S is now at 5, although once can argue that the vehicle has undergone a lot of R&D. The X is only at the end of year 2. Stationary storage is still a gelding market and the product lineup was just rev'ed. Most of the R&D is on products that aren't yet shipping... Model 3, solar roof, Tesla semi, and others. For major automakers, most are already competing in the market segments they are going to compete in in the near future. Most of their products are already on established cycles. Therefore the gross margin is not directly comparable, but doing the comparison is quite difficult.

Similarity, the assignment of profit and loss is also difficult. The core Model S and Model X business may be in far better shape than many of the critics that merely glance at the financials assume. We don't know how much of the R&D as well as the SG&A to apportion to the relatively mature Model S business, the new Model X business, the mature solar installation, the fledging stationary storage, solar panel and solar roof startup, the semi startup, and the automated driving startup. But clearly Tesla is managing the cash levels to be as aggressive as possible.

No idea what you are trying to say with all these. Every company does these. GM, for example, developed an entire Bolt and revamped Volt in the last few year. All companies continuously spend on these.

Let me put it another way to make it simpler. if GM and Ford were allowed to operate like Tesla, with direct sales and using customers as sales people, and use Tesla style accounting, their gross margins will be 10%+ higher.
If we are not comparing gross margins among other car makers and Tesla and touting Tesla's high gross margins, then it's all fine.

Actually, yes I do have comprehension problems. It is very difficult to comprehend why you post on this forum. There are only two reasons that I can think of:

1) You are being compensated. This is very sad when you think about it. It pains me to imagine that someone has to stoop to that to earn a living.

2) You enjoy trolling. I can't imagine what it would be like to get pleasure from an activity like this. This actually makes me feel sympathy for you.

Quite simple. I am here to stomp on misinformation spread by folks like yourselves, pulverize them into the ground Yeah, I do enjoy that a lot.
Shoved away into the *sugar* pile. Oops, I meant my ever growing ignore list.

My ever growing ignore list (making public first time ever):
1 Bgarret
2 Bobfitz1
3 D-egg-O
4 DragonWatch
5 EinSV
6 Garlan Garner
7 Intl Professor
8 kbM3
9 Krugerrand
10 Lycanthrope
11 madodel
12 MitchJi
13 MXWing
14 Navin
15 racer26
16 rdalcanto
17 Reciprocity
18 Sancho
19 shrspeedblade
20 TMSE
21 TrendTrader007
22 ValueAnalyst
23 winfield100

 

[Jayjs20]

Could you explain how you're simultaneously 'stomp on misinformation' while, at the same time, put people on your ignore list who supposedly would be giving out that misinformation?

 

[GoTslaGo]

Could you explain how you're simultaneously 'stomp on misinformation' while, at the same time, put people on your ignore list who supposedly would be giving out that misinformation?

They're ignoring him/her (mmd).

 

[Tslynk67]

Wow, I'm higher on a list than TT007, hell, I made the top 10! Feelin' proud

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The reason for increased FUD is likely that they're to breaking point.

 

[Runarbt]

No idea what you are trying to say with all these. Every company does these. GM, for example, developed an entire Bolt and revamped Volt in the last few year. All companies continuously spend on these.

Let me put it another way to make it simpler. if GM and Ford were allowed to operate like Tesla, with direct sales and using customers as sales people, and use Tesla style accounting, their gross margins will be 10%+ higher.
If we are not comparing gross margins among other car makers and Tesla and touting Tesla's high gross margins, then it's all fine.



Quite simple. I am here to stomp on misinformation spread by folks like yourselves, pulverize them into the ground Yeah, I do enjoy that a lot.
Shoved away into the *sugar* pile. Oops, I meant my ever growing ignore list.

My ever growing ignore list (making public first time ever):
1 Bgarret
2 Bobfitz1
3 D-egg-O
4 DragonWatch
5 EinSV
6 Garlan Garner
7 Intl Professor
8 kbM3
9 Krugerrand
10 Lycanthrope
11 madodel
12 MitchJi
13 MXWing
14 Navin
15 racer26
16 rdalcanto
17 Reciprocity
18 Sancho
19 shrspeedblade
20 TMSE
21 TrendTrader007
22 ValueAnalyst
23 winfield100

Please add me to your list. And I'll add u to mine

 

[Bgarret]

No idea what you are trying to say with all these. Every company does these. GM, for example, developed an entire Bolt and revamped Volt in the last few year. All companies continuously spend on these.

Let me put it another way to make it simpler. if GM and Ford were allowed to operate like Tesla, with direct sales and using customers as sales people, and use Tesla style accounting, their gross margins will be 10%+ higher.
If we are not comparing gross margins among other car makers and Tesla and touting Tesla's high gross margins, then it's all fine.



Quite simple. I am here to stomp on misinformation spread by folks like yourselves, pulverize them into the ground Yeah, I do enjoy that a lot.
Shoved away into the *sugar* pile. Oops, I meant my ever growing ignore list.

My ever growing ignore list (making public first time ever):
1 Bgarret
2 Bobfitz1
3 D-egg-O
4 DragonWatch
5 EinSV
6 Garlan Garner
7 Intl Professor
8 kbM3
9 Krugerrand
10 Lycanthrope
11 madodel
12 MitchJi
13 MXWing
14 Navin
15 racer26
16 rdalcanto
17 Reciprocity
18 Sancho
19 shrspeedblade
20 TMSE
21 TrendTrader007
22 ValueAnalyst
23 winfield100

Had to click the "see ignored content" button to see what list people were talking about....and I'm rewarded with:

"I'm # 1! I'm # 1! Scoreboard people!" May have to unignore MMD as he just gave me infinite likes and credibility from the majority of the board.

Nah...

Damn. It's alphabetical.

"I'm still #1!"

 

[techmaven]

The problem is that the comp is not going to be straight forward for quite some time. Since Tesla is still expanding automotive platforms and segments as well as developing non-automotive products as well as taking on the dealership portion, sorting out what goes into what buckets for a straight comparison is difficult. Tesla is a fleeing automaker with one product that has seen a full development cycle.. 4-7 years and the Model S is now at 5, although once can argue that the vehicle has undergone a lot of R&D. The X is only at the end of year 2. Stationary storage is still a gelding market and the product lineup was just rev'ed. Most of the R&D is on products that aren't yet shipping... Model 3, solar roof, Tesla semi, and others. For major automakers, most are already competing in the market segments they are going to compete in in the near future. Most of their products are already on established cycles. Therefore the gross margin is not directly comparable, but doing the comparison is quite difficult.

Similarity, the assignment of profit and loss is also difficult. The core Model S and Model X business may be in far better shape than many of the critics that merely glance at the financials assume. We don't know how much of the R&D as well as the SG&A to apportion to the relatively mature Model S business, the new Model X business, the mature solar installation, the fledging stationary storage, solar panel and solar roof startup, the semi startup, and the automated driving startup. But clearly Tesla is managing the cash levels to be as aggressive as possible.

Wow, I just realized that typing this out on my iPad was probably not a good idea. Fledgling, not fleeing or gelding.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Actually, yes I do have comprehension problems. It is very difficult to comprehend why you post on this forum. There are only two reasons that I can think of:

1) You are being compensated. This is very sad when you think about it. It pains me to imagine that someone has to stoop to that to earn a living.

2) You enjoy trolling. I can't imagine what it would be like to get pleasure from an activity like this. This actually makes me feel sympathy for you.

I've pointed this out to them many times, but they don't seem to care. It's pathetic.