2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[vgrinshpun]

**Public service announcement**
Those who did not make it on mmd's ignore list and feel humiliated, cheated and unfulfilled, PM me for a group therapy session.

 

[dw4ngg]

No idea what you are trying to say with all these. Every company does these. GM, for example, developed an entire Bolt and revamped Volt in the last few year. All companies continuously spend on these.

Let me put it another way to make it simpler. if GM and Ford were allowed to operate like Tesla, with direct sales and using customers as sales people, and use Tesla style accounting, their gross margins will be 10%+ higher.
If we are not comparing gross margins among other car makers and Tesla and touting Tesla's high gross margins, then it's all fine.



Quite simple. I am here to stomp on misinformation spread by folks like yourselves, pulverize them into the ground Yeah, I do enjoy that a lot.
Shoved away into the *sugar* pile. Oops, I meant my ever growing ignore list.

My ever growing ignore list (making public first time ever):
1 Bgarret
2 Bobfitz1
3 D-egg-O
4 DragonWatch
5 EinSV
6 Garlan Garner
7 Intl Professor
8 kbM3
9 Krugerrand
10 Lycanthrope
11 madodel
12 MitchJi
13 MXWing
14 Navin
15 racer26
16 rdalcanto
17 Reciprocity
18 Sancho
19 shrspeedblade
20 TMSE
21 TrendTrader007
22 ValueAnalyst
23 winfield100

Why are you still here if you ignore everyone? Lol

You're going to miss the forest if you keep contemplating the weeds. GM and F direct sales would make me want a GM or F abt 1.005 times more.

 

[madodel]

Why are you still here if you ignore everyone? Lol

You're going to miss the forest if you keep contemplating the weeds. GM and F direct sales would make me want a GM or F abt 1.005 times more.

He is here to try out his latest FUD to see what response it gets from people who actually know what is going on with Tesla. Then he can adapt it for promoting his agenda among people who have no clue. If people would stop responding to his ridiculous trolls then they would lose the only reason they have to be here.

 

[bdy0627]

Could we please get back to some market action discussion in this thread??

 

[KLC13]

He is here to try out his latest FUD to see what response it gets from people who actually know what is going on with Tesla. Then he can adapt it for promoting his agenda among people who have no clue. If people would stop responding to his ridiculous trolls then they would lose the only reason they have to be here.

Yes, he/them have successfully managed to take over the last few pages. Lets get back to the market action. Down ~1% in pre-mkt!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

8-12, maybe 20 Gigafactories by 2025

40+ million cumulative cars produced by 2025 (growing by 10-20+ million cars per year)

Tesla Network: 50% owner participation x $2 per ride x 2 rides per hour x 15 hours x 365 days x 25% cut x 90% gross margin =

~$100 billion in annual gross profit just from Tesla Network by 2025

 

[farzyness]

No idea what you are trying to say with all these. Every company does these. GM, for example, developed an entire Bolt and revamped Volt in the last few year. All companies continuously spend on these.

Let me put it another way to make it simpler. if GM and Ford were allowed to operate like Tesla, with direct sales and using customers as sales people, and use Tesla style accounting, their gross margins will be 10%+ higher.
If we are not comparing gross margins among other car makers and Tesla and touting Tesla's high gross margins, then it's all fine.



Quite simple. I am here to stomp on misinformation spread by folks like yourselves, pulverize them into the ground Yeah, I do enjoy that a lot.
Shoved away into the *sugar* pile. Oops, I meant my ever growing ignore list.

My ever growing ignore list (making public first time ever):
1 Bgarret
2 Bobfitz1
3 D-egg-O
4 DragonWatch
5 EinSV
6 Garlan Garner
7 Intl Professor
8 kbM3
9 Krugerrand
10 Lycanthrope
11 madodel
12 MitchJi
13 MXWing
14 Navin
15 racer26
16 rdalcanto
17 Reciprocity
18 Sancho
19 shrspeedblade
20 TMSE
21 TrendTrader007
22 ValueAnalyst
23 winfield100

Please add me - TY.

 

[CorneliusXX]

No idea what you are trying to say with all these. Every company does these. GM, for example, developed an entire Bolt and revamped Volt in the last few year. All companies continuously spend on these.

Let me put it another way to make it simpler. if GM and Ford were allowed to operate like Tesla, with direct sales and using customers as sales people, and use Tesla style accounting, their gross margins will be 10%+ higher.
If we are not comparing gross margins among other car makers and Tesla and touting Tesla's high gross margins, then it's all fine.



Quite simple. I am here to stomp on misinformation spread by folks like yourselves, pulverize them into the ground Yeah, I do enjoy that a lot.
Shoved away into the *sugar* pile. Oops, I meant my ever growing ignore list.

My ever growing ignore list (making public first time ever):
1 Bgarret
2 Bobfitz1
3 D-egg-O
4 DragonWatch
5 EinSV
6 Garlan Garner
7 Intl Professor
8 kbM3
9 Krugerrand
10 Lycanthrope
11 madodel
12 MitchJi
13 MXWing
14 Navin
15 racer26
16 rdalcanto
17 Reciprocity
18 Sancho
19 shrspeedblade
20 TMSE
21 TrendTrader007
22 ValueAnalyst
23 winfield100

Can you add me too please. I feel like I'm missing out

 

[Reciprocity]

No idea what you are trying to say with all these. Every company does these. GM, for example, developed an entire Bolt and revamped Volt in the last few year. All companies continuously spend on these.

Let me put it another way to make it simpler. if GM and Ford were allowed to operate like Tesla, with direct sales and using customers as sales people, and use Tesla style accounting, their gross margins will be 10%+ higher.
If we are not comparing gross margins among other car makers and Tesla and touting Tesla's high gross margins, then it's all fine.



Quite simple. I am here to stomp on misinformation spread by folks like yourselves, pulverize them into the ground Yeah, I do enjoy that a lot.
Shoved away into the *sugar* pile. Oops, I meant my ever growing ignore list.

My ever growing ignore list (making public first time ever):
1 Bgarret
2 Bobfitz1
3 D-egg-O
4 DragonWatch
5 EinSV
6 Garlan Garner
7 Intl Professor
8 kbM3
9 Krugerrand
10 Lycanthrope
11 madodel
12 MitchJi
13 MXWing
14 Navin
15 racer26
16 rdalcanto
17 Reciprocity
18 Sancho
19 shrspeedblade
20 TMSE
21 TrendTrader007
22 ValueAnalyst
23 winfield100

Woohoo! I made the list. I think I really like and respect the opinions of most of the people on that list so I feel honored.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Where are the moderators?!

 

[Richgoogol]

WTH! Why am I not on the list? I feel very much disrespected. Show some respect and add me on that list now!

 

[1kEE]

Based on index futures and Tsla premarket trading, it appears today will extend tomorrow's losses.

Maybe we go below 370 today... I sold all my trading positions Thursday and Friday (that was painful, but proved to be a great move). Now I'm wondering where the re-entry point is. 369-370 has shown a lot of support last few weeks.

 

[Ameliorate]

Where are the moderators?!

trendtrader scared them off over a week ago . They don't stop mmd from posting anyways, use a little restraint and moderate yourselves any newcomers can just check post ratings and decide if they want to swim against the crowd or not.

 

[Reciprocity]

Based on index futures and Tsla premarket trading, it appears today will extend tomorrow's losses.

Maybe we go below 370 today... I sold all my trading positions Thursday and Frida (that was painful), now I'm wondering where the re-entry point is. 369-370 has shown a lot of support last few weeks.

Cant really base anything off pre-market, as the last 3-4 down downs had TSLA up in the pre-market. I would look more to the Nasdaq as Tesla seems to be in lock stop but down more dramatically when Nasdaq is down and up more when Nasdaq is up. More then likely a down day with the Nasdaq pointing down again. I dont expect much until we start to get a better idea of Q2 deliveries and Model 3 final reveal/first deliveries.

 

[Yggdrasill]

8-12, maybe 20 Gigafactories by 2025

40+ million cumulative cars produced by 2025 (growing by 10-20+ million cars per year)

Tesla Network: 50% owner participation x $2 per ride x 2 rides per hour x 15 hours x 365 days x 25% cut x 90% gross margin =

~$100 billion in annual gross profit just from Tesla Network by 2025

No offence, but I think the Tesla Network being worth zero is a lot more likely than your scenario.

Using 8 million cumulative AP 2 cars, 10% owner participation, 5 hours per day and 200 days per year, that's 720 mill USD in profits per year.

Maybe I'm being too pessimistic, but here are some things to consider:

- Regulatory issues will take decades to sort out across the world. Some markets will be earlier, some later. You can't expect that every car Tesla sells is in a market where the Tesla Network is legal.
- Owner participation can be expected to be fairly low. Most people don't want strangers to mess up their cars, they don't want to add the miles to their cars, they don't want to take out child seats, they don't want to have to keep their cars tidy at all times, etc.
- As the Tesla Network (and competitors) becomes more commonplace, the market for rides becomes entirely saturated. You're assuming 1.2 billion rides per day by 2025 just on the Tesla Network. That's crazy.
- I think Tesla will face viable BEV competition sometime in 2020-2025. Expecting the growth of Tesla to continue at an extremely high rate is too optimistic. My predictions for production volume is something like this:

2017: 150k
2018: 375k
2019: 500k
2020: 650k
2021: 1 million
2022: 1.2 million
2023: 1.4 million
2024: 1.6 million
2025: 1.8 million

Cumulative: 8.675 million.

 

[AlMc]

Based on index futures and Tsla premarket trading, it appears today will extend tomorrow's losses.

Maybe we go below 370 today... I sold all my trading positions Thursday and Frida (that was painful), now I'm wondering where the re-entry point is. 369-370 has shown a lot of support last few weeks.

Thanks for your market related post.

I agree with your assessment that today most likely will be an extension of TSLA down day yesterday.
Unless we see a positive catalyst today (ex: announcement of date for '3' reveal) I suspect we see 369 sometime today with a recovery just above 370.

Edit: Opinion. No TA or Fundamental analysis went into this post. But at least it is better than talking about nonsensical lists

 

[DurandalAI]

I'm reminded of the thought of a Young Earther who has a progressively longer list of people that he refuses to talk to because they don't accept his explanation that dinosaur bones were placed there by the devil in order to fool people into believing that the Earth is not 6,000 years old. It blew my mind when I first met a Young Earther. At first I thought he was simply trolling, like Mike Mike Delta, but then I realized that he genuinely believed it! Here I am, trying to provide logical, cogent arguments, and it's all to no avail because I was speaking to someone who lived in a delusion.

 

[Tslynk67]

Looks red across the board so far...?

 

[FluxCap]

FYI, Adam "I'm the only one allowed to make up business models for Elon" Jonas of Morgan Stanley released a note in pre-market on a hypothetical Tesla music streaming service. I personally see this as so far outside Tesla's core competencies that it's not really worth it, especially when others already do it so well.

 

[DurandalAI]

I don't try to time things except when I buy, and I expect the dip to continue until the $360 range, only because I can draw lines in MS paint on top of Yahoo Finance charts.