2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[1kEE]

Hmmm.... nasdaq futures down -0.60%, s&p and Dow almost flat. Oil up. More sector rotation out of tech?

Yesterday's big winners were bank stocks, that contributed to overall market being up.

I would not take the premarket action too seriously, this could go either way 5 minutes after open.

 

[ggies07]

We are in an 80's movie marathon right now and last night we watched Wall Street. Thought this quote explained why this forum is a great place to be and what we are are all looking for:

"The most valuable commodity I know of is information" - Gordon Gekko

 

[T3slaTulips]

The pre-market action does not look good for tech stocks again...I have a bad feeling about today...

Maybe we'll stay above 370?

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

The only difference is that I've been doing these shenanigans for over 19 years and made and lost millions
JK!
(Don't take me seriously)
I do love being patronized

I didn't even realize I was being patronizing. Or, maybe I wasn't trying to be - maybe I was lamenting my lack of balls to continue playing hard?
Who knows, probably hubris at work here

 

[Turing]

Tesla relatively strong so far, looks like Tencent has their accumulation algo set to buy all dips below $370

 

[Turing]

Tesla relatively strong so far, looks like Tencent has their accumulation algo set to buy all dips below $370

Ha, there it goes, comp selling off more.

 

[elasalle]

Lots of juggling involved .. but bought my final (1/2 dozen of jan19/Jan18 Calendar spreads @ 550) ... All Locked & Loaded now.

 

[Krugerrand]

The incumbent manufacturers like the dealership system because it forces someone else to hold inventory for them and therefore shifts risk caused by unsold vehicles. This is kind of a dirty secret in the American automobile industry. The fact that there are these independent dealerships and they are the ones who actually own the cars they sell you is something that most people don't realize. This lets the actual automakers carry zero inventory themselves besides manufactured vehicles which haven't been shipped from their factories yet.

There will never be any effort from Ford, GM, and Fiat Chrysler in trying to topple the American dealership network of parasitic cartels for this reason.

That's a good point. But you know, sometimes things change whether you want them to or not.

 

[Krugerrand]

Actually probably incorrect in most states because Dealers are constitutents who have strong lobbyists and directly contribute to the state legislators. The Dealers have much more lobbying power than manufacturers in those states. Same thing for the beer distributers. In addition, the dealers have a stronger argument relative to competition from their own manfacturer than they have against Tesla.

When the cars on their lots are no longer selling and the OEMs supplying them go bye-bye, it just won't matter anymore.

 

[Starno]

Between July 2015 and September 2016, meaning for more than 1 year. The NASDAQ plateaued. I wonder if we're going to see the same thing now...

 

[22522]

Between July 2015 and September 2016, meaning for more than 1 year. The NASDAQ plateaued. I wonder if we're going to see the same thing now...

Does Tesla have relative strength?

 

[myusername]

Between July 2015 and September 2016, meaning for more than 1 year. The NASDAQ
plateaued. I wonder if we're going to see the same thing now...

I've been watching the same thing. It sort of ended with the massive drop in late Aug. TSLA was pinned at $266 for 4 to 5 weeks prior to the Aug Q2 report and the secondary that came a week later. I'm wondering if the exact same sequence is about to happen, just $100 higher. I've been pondering this all week as I've watched it trade against $366.

 

[AlMc]

I remember owning in 2012 more than 300 of the 2014 strike 50 calls (open interest only 336). I stopped buying more when price exceeded 2. Not willing to call buyers of strike 600 calls crazy. That's less than twice the current stock price . the stock price was 25 when I started to accumulate the 2014 calls. My strategy has evolved as well. More risk adverse now. My advice...ignore all advice

If you have been on this forum less than a year this is one of the people you should listen to and follow.

 

[22522]

I've been watching the same thing. It sort of ended with the massive drop in late Aug. TSLA was pinned at $266 for 4 to 5 weeks prior to the Aug Q2 report and the secondary that came a week later. I'm wondering if the exact same sequence is about to happen, just $100 higher. I've been pondering this all week as I've watched it trade against $366.

Charts show money backed sentiment.

Don't know how they account for massive product introductions.

Wonder if they show noise in the rear view mirror rather than the opportunity ahead?

This is more Lynch than O'Neil.

Maybe wrong forum catagory, but it belongs here as a question.

The market does not know how bad the dearer/distributor model performs in delivering products that people want.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Curious, did you try to hold most of these through the long drop and subsequent range action? Jesse of course would have unloaded pretty quickly, accepting that his timing was not correct and exiting promptly. With TSLA, I know that's easier said than done because of our emotional connection to it and our confidence in its very bright future.

I was playing around position, mostly successfully while waiting for 'recovery' to $280 that never quite came.
1. I knew less than, and my capital preservation strategy wasn't defined well
2. My first experience with options made me almost lose $1800 invested(FB), but instead win $1200, while leaving $42K on the table. I took that lesson and erred on the other side with TSLA, sitting in for too long. It didn't help that Tesla couldn't get MX of the ground, I wasn't intimately knowledgeable of nuances Musk uses to avoid delivering bad news, and that he announced SCTY acquisition. All of that let me lose trust in him (in managing shareholder experience only), to the point that I significantly deleveraged sometime in November. And while I'm comfortably up 50% since entering Tesla, the way I was positioned, if I persisted couple more months, I'd be up 300%, and able to retire if I wanted - which I don't (47 yrs old). But I was down around ~80% at some point in Feb '16, and came back from 20% to 150% of pre-TSLA funds, so no real complain here about choices I made

 

[myusername]

Charts show money backed sentiment.

Don't know how they account for massive product introductions.

Wonder if they show noise in the rear view mirror rather than the opportunity ahead?

This is more Lynch than O'Neil.

Maybe wrong forum catagory, but it belongs here as a question.

well... whatever it is... 5 minutes after my post the nasdaq recovers 0.1% and TSLA jerks directly back to $366 and sits there.

 

[DurandalAI]

Seriously guys, I don't even do options trading, but after reading enough horror stories, I had a dream last night where I lost $10,000 on an option trade because I let it expire. I don't need that! I'll keep my sleep at night and stick to buy/hold. lol.

 

[cranker2k]

Seriously guys, I don't even do options trading, but after reading enough horror stories, I had a dream last night where I lost $10,000 on an option trade because I let it expire. I don't need that! I'll keep my sleep at night and stick to buy/hold. lol.

I do the compromise. I buy LEAP (J19) and close to strike price. Expensive but can sell early for profit and keep most time value if price goes up. If price goes down, there is plenty of time to recover as we all know longer term the stock price will be up.

 

[MartinAustin]

Tesla relatively strong so far, looks like Tencent has their accumulation algo set to buy all dips below $370

It's usually me that posts something like this :|

 

[Jayjs20]

My god we're only 2 hours into the trading day