2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Waiting4M3]

The incumbent manufacturers like the dealership system because it forces someone else to hold inventory for them and therefore shifts risk caused by unsold vehicles. This is kind of a dirty secret in the American automobile industry. The fact that there are these independent dealerships and they are the ones who actually own the cars they sell you is something that most people don't realize. This lets the actual automakers carry zero inventory themselves besides manufactured vehicles which haven't been shipped from their factories yet.

There will never be any effort from Ford, GM, and Fiat Chrysler in trying to topple the American dealership network of parasitic cartels for this reason.

If autonomous ride sharing comes, no one will buy cars any more, and dealerships go bye bye

 

[22522]

The incumbent manufacturers like the dealership system because it forces someone else to hold inventory for them and therefore shifts risk caused by unsold vehicles. This is kind of a dirty secret in the American automobile industry. The fact that there are these independent dealerships and they are the ones who actually own the cars they sell you is something that most people don't realize. This lets the actual automakers carry zero inventory themselves besides manufactured vehicles which haven't been shipped from their factories yet.

There will never be any effort from Ford, GM, and Fiat Chrysler in trying to topple the American dealership network of parasitic cartels for this reason.

Any business that sells though distribution shifts focus away from the end customer and towards back scratching relationships, toward the end of quarters and even in product design. Not just autos. Results in products no consumer actually wants to buy.

 

[SteveG3]

Yeah! But some shorts are posting such absolute drivel (which I'm afraid has already damaged my IQ by a few % points, and I don't have a whole lot left to lose) that ignoring them is a pure act of neuronal circuit preservation
So tolerance be damned, I say ignore the suckers!

You must be new. Everyone here likes to hear new, intelligent contrarian opinions that could save us from losing money. None of us want to miss anything negative that could affect our investments. However, frequently ignored members like username and mmd continue to type the same FUD that has been disproven time and time again, and their comments are no longer of any value (which is why I chose not to have them even show up anymore). They probably have ulterior motives to explain why they post the same garbage over and over again.

Agree.

In the terms of this two minute video below (by the person Elon Musk asked to come out to CA, meet with him and profile Elon's companies), this forum is largely a marketplace of ideas among "jurors", with "attorneys" sometimes showing up, and, with some "witch hunter" activity as well.

 

[SteveG3]

All, as a lurker of this site and leecher of your intellect (very much appreciated), these past few hundred posts have been brutal; let's get back to form. There are no absolutes when looking forward, only degrees of probability, yet some here speak of preferred outcomes as though they are certain and mock differing points of view as though they are impossible. Having contrarians around like username and mmd might be annoying to some, but anything that makes you question your assumptions or way of thinking can be far more valuable to you than an echo chamber of similar thinkers. I'd hate to see valuable contributions not made because of our collective habit to belittle points of view that differ too greatly from the group. If anyone is disregarding certain posts simply based on disagreement, hopefully they are able to overcome their annoyances, and if not this time, the next. I appreciate the users who enhance discussion, even in the face of disagreement. Open, intelligent discussion is a beautiful thing when it occurs.

notwithstanding the comment I made above (with the video clip), I think Fifield hit square on a core ingredient of effective investment analysis- remembering that we are dealing with "degrees of probability", not "certainties" or "impossibilities." thanks for dropping that timely note Fifield : )

 

[Reciprocity]

Yeah! But some shorts are posting such absolute drivel (which I'm afraid has already damaged my IQ by a few % points, and I don't have a whole lot left to lose) that ignoring them is a pure act of neuronal circuit preservation
So tolerance be damned, I say ignore the suckers!

In the military they say to embrace the suck to get through tough times. I say to embrace the FUD. The way I see it, the more FUD the more shorts, the more shorts the more Squeeze. Given the size of the float and the long term nature of the bulk of the investors, it would take some very bad news to truly cause issues. What we have seen the last 2 weeks has been purely tied to the Nasdaq and tech and has nothing to do with Tesla, except that the moves are magnified because of the low volume and small float. I am sure some traders love this and that's why there is a lot of volatility.

Nasdaq down .2 in pre-market again this morning, but that is exactly where it was yesterday when it started to move back in the right direction and of course we ended up 2.4%. same thing happened last week. The good news is that none of these moves are in anyway related to Tesla's business, which if the Model 3 hits on time is going to be awesome to watch for the next year.

GTLA! Embrace the suck! Embrace the FUD!

 

[Words of HABIT]

What was this? Someone trying to recreate the Tesla Motors logo?

 

[vgrinshpun]

I can take another "blood bath" / blood splash day!

 

[Reciprocity]

I can take another "blood bath" / blood splash day!

Woohoo.. Nasdaq is turning, down half as much now as it was a few minutes ago. As we learned yesterday "Blood Baths" are actually good right? I hate the Nasdaq lately, its making me angry.

 

[jeewee3000]

What was this? Someone trying to recreate the Tesla Motors logo?
View attachment 233226

Was wondering that myself.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Woohoo.. Nasdaq is turning, down half as much now as it was a few minutes ago. As we learned yesterday "Blood Baths" are actually good right? I hate the Nasdaq lately, its making me angry.

Agree. These pretzels are making me thirsty!

 

[1kEE]

Seriously, @jhm, this "thing" between you and $370. People are starting to talk.

You do realize, like all infatuations, it can't last??

Good observation! @jhm, do you have a butterfly at 370?

I spent considerable effort to build up a butterfly with Jun monthlies centered at 335 back when the stock traded at around 300. Tens of contracts... Then the stock shot past the upper leg at 350, and it was worth exactly what I paid for it (nothing). Fun times....

I should have sold off that position when the stock crossed 335 (it was 320 calls long, 335 calls short, 350 calls long) even tho the timing was less then optimal, rather than wait and have it become worthless a week later.

 

[AlMc]

What was this? Someone trying to recreate the Tesla Motors logo?
View attachment 233226

Was wondering that myself.

Actually it is not unusual as 'deals' are settled early AH. I do like the Tesla logo though.

 

[bdy0627]

Eeeh, old days...
I used to be like you.
At some point in '15, I was holding 1/3 of all open interest in $300 strike Jan 16 leaps... If I remember well, it was nice 6 figure that didn't start with 1. And that was just one example of the leveraged holdings.
No more such games for me. I'm closer to Mr. Partridge's philosophy now, not Jesse's.

Curious, did you try to hold most of these through the long drop and subsequent range action? Jesse of course would have unloaded pretty quickly, accepting that his timing was not correct and exiting promptly. With TSLA, I know that's easier said than done because of our emotional connection to it and our confidence in its very bright future.

 

[bdy0627]

Welcome to the 600 club! It was getting lonely in 500 to 600 calls. I think your probability of making money on these calls is high. The way this sucker is acting it's likely to burn a ton of shorts and $600+ sometime this year is a high probability. Most of my J18 calls are$250s, $300s, $260s, $410 and a few $500s
OTOH I'm literally loaded up on J19s $600s and $500s like there is no tomorrow I also still hold J19s $300, $290s etc etc
You and I the two disciples of Jesse Livermore are slated to make a killing in TSLA later this year

TT007, just trying to learn here, what's your exit plan if your timing here is incorrect? You appear to be very committed financially to a big move up in the short to medium term, which makes you very vulnerable if you are wrong on your timing here. Particularly for your J18s, how long do you plan to hold these into a dip? Please share your thoughts on exit plans if things don't go as expected. Thanks

 

[Chickenlittle]

Eeeh, old days...
I used to be like you.
At some point in '15, I was holding 1/3 of all open interest in $300 strike Jan 16 leaps... If I remember well, it was nice 6 figure that didn't start with 1. And that was just one example of the leveraged holdings.
No more such games for me. I'm closer to Mr. Partridge's philosophy now, not Jesse's.

I remember owning in 2012 more than 300 of the 2014 strike 50 calls (open interest only 336). I stopped buying more when price exceeded 2. Not willing to call buyers of strike 600 calls crazy. That's less than twice the current stock price . the stock price was 25 when I started to accumulate the 2014 calls. My strategy has evolved as well. More risk adverse now. My advice...ignore all advice

 

[jhm]

Good observation! @jhm, do you have a butterfly at 370?

I spent considerable effort to build up a butterfly with Jun monthlies centered at 335 back when the stock traded at around 300. Tens of contracts... Then the stock shot past the upper leg at 350, and it was worth exactly what I paid for it (nothing). Fun times....

I should have sold off that position when the stock crossed 335 (it was 320 calls long, 335 calls short, 350 calls long) even tho the timing was less then optimal, rather than wait and have it become worthless a week later.

Nah, I only hold shares long term. I think $370 will be a sticky price level. Moreover, if sentiment grows bearish 12 months from now, $370 will be a good price (near first quartile in my BFPT methodology).

So I see $370 as a good price right now for long term accumulation. Above $384, things become less stable, maybe fine for trading, but could be disappointing to hold for a year. Above $440, Tesla looks like fresh meat for moderately intelligent shorts. Only dumb, ideologically blinded shorts are attacking below $370.

So my fixation around $370 is not so much a prediction about where prices are going, but rather where prices at optimal for accumulation. Buy anything under $370.

About a year from now I am hopeful that $420 will be the new $370. But we're not there yet. For now $370 is base camp.

 

[TrendTrader007]

TT007, just trying to learn here, what's your exit plan if your timing here is incorrect? You appear to be very committed financially to a big move up in the short to medium term, which makes you very vulnerable if you are wrong on your timing here. Particularly for your J18s, how long do you plan to hold these into a dip? Please share your thoughts on exit plans if things don't go as expected. Thanks

If I'm wrong I'll cut my losses by end of Q3 in J18s
J19s and common will stay on course

 

[TrendTrader007]

I remember owning in 2012 more than 300 of the 2014 strike 50 calls (open interest only 336). I stopped buying more when price exceeded 2. Not willing to call buyers of strike 600 calls crazy. That's less than twice the current stock price . the stock price was 25 when I started to accumulate the 2014 calls. My strategy has evolved as well. More risk adverse now. My advice...ignore all advice

I did take your advice several months ago and recalled all my shares lent out to shorts. What you said at that time continues to make perfect sense in case of an imminent short squeeze. I appreciate all your thoughts and since you are one of the few members that I actually learn from I sincerely hope that you'll continue to post
Your winning trade in $50 calls is truly amazing.

 

[T3slaTulips]

What was this? Someone trying to recreate the Tesla Motors logo?
View attachment 233226

That's a glitch with Google's system that happens almost every day at 4:06pm and 4:11pm. It does not reflect any actual trading information.
Edit: maybe not. checking NasDaq historical and it does show up. Hmmm.


16:31:52 $ 371.24 249
16:31:51 $ 371.24 303
16:31:04 $ 370.80 4
16:30:17 $ 370.75 47
16:30:15 $ 370.75 300
16:28:13 $ 362.37 Low 1,000
16:28:09 $ 362.37 Low 3,000
16:27:44 $ 370.60 1,000 - Cancelled Trade

 

[Richgoogol]

The pre-market action does not look good for tech stocks again...I have a bad feeling about today...