2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[geneclean55]

Anyone else loading up on stock and/or options on Wednesday? Today seems like a gift to maximize on a potential SP re-launch in the next few days. Or am I missing something?

TSLA still seems to be following the NASDAQ despite having its own specific news today. Rough extrapolation, volume would have likely have been around 10 million today if it was the full 6.5 hours, so I wouldn't even describe today as light trading open to manipulation.
I will be following NASDAQ just as closely as TSLA for clues during the rest of the week.

 

[Ameliorate]

Anyone else loading up on stock and/or options on Wednesday? Today seems like a gift to maximize on a potential SP re-launch in the next few days. Or am I missing something?

I can't explain why and it's somewhat frustrating for me but TSLA is trading almost exactly the same as other tech and QQQ with different degrees of volatility. The timing of the ups and downs are almost identical. Tesla has only done good in the last week and we're down 10%. Last week setup looked great with spaceX landing two rockets in a weekend and a model 3 delivery date incoming. S and X upgrades etc etc.

Today we almost bucked the trend in the a.m. on the news but the general market direction is too strong.

 

[AlMc]

Anyone else loading up on stock and/or options on Wednesday? Today seems like a gift to maximize on a potential SP re-launch in the next few days. Or am I missing something?

Being a conservative bull I will not be increasing my TSLA exposure on Wednesday.
I would prefer to miss out on that potential move up as I believe there *may* be some selling pressure.

Not advice, just answering your question

 

[geneclean55]

Interesting day. Broader market up, model 3 two weeks earlier, first deliveries schedules, once not even on Elon but real time. Yet still a big down day. Boggles the mind. And then after close, release of delivery numbers seem to confirm the movement of the day...

You really need to pull up a chart of the QQQs or Nasdaq comp and place it side-by-side with TSLA.

 

[sundaymorning]

I can't explain why and it's somewhat frustrating for me but TSLA is trading almost exactly the same as other tech and QQQ with different degrees of volatility. View attachment 233924 View attachment 233925

Well, at least we're tracking tech stocks, which validates Tesla as being a tech company. I wouldn't want us tracking autos anymore, I'm glad those days have recently passed. Techs overall has been on a tear lately, sometimes we just need to take a breather for the next leg up. Short term is quite unpredictable, I bought calls today thinking it would go on another tear, but once it pulled back a bit I sold immediately and lost a couple hundred "play money". If there's anything I know about Tesla, it's hold long and chill. For short term speculation, just flip a coin, you may get better results from heads/tail odds than listening to any analysts here--aside from @DaveT & @jesselivenomore that is , which will only slightly increase the odds in your favor by 5%.

 

[doctoxics]

What shortfall of deliveries?

Or do you mean that you didn't read their release which covered them adding a bunch of loaners and test drive Xs to their fleet. (So car produced but not deliviered.)

Yes. I read Tesla's statement. The short-fall being referenced is their implied statement that deliveries would have been higher, but for the shortage of 100 kwh battery packs. So did they make the cars and park them until the battery packs showed up (counting those cars as production but not deliveries) or did they delay production on 100 kwh cars?

 

[sunhelm]

Thanks all for your responses. My feeling is today's abbreviated trading hours and the relatively light volume made for an easily manipulated share price. I do hope the break today and tomorrow will potentially bring change in sentiment specifically to TSLA and could be decouple from NASDAQ on Wednesday and in the days ahead. All doubts to the important questions seem to have been answered:
- will Model 3 production be delayed?
- will S and X be Osborned and therefore weaken Q217 deliveries ?

For me, today's news was a resounding NO to the above!

 

[geneclean55]

Well, at least we're tracking tech stocks, which validates Tesla as being a tech company. I wouldn't want us tracking autos anymore, I'm glad those days have recently passed. Techs overall has been on a tear lately, sometimes we just need to take a breather for the next leg up. Short term is quite unpredictable, I bought calls today thinking it would go on another tear, but once it pulled back a bit I sold immediately and lost a couple hundred "play money". If there's anything I know about Tesla, it's hold long and chill. For short term speculation, just flip a coin, you may get better results from heads/tail odds than listening to any analysts here--aside from @DaveT & @jesselivenomore that is , which will only slightly increase the odds in your favor by 5%.

And yet this is one of the 2 most heavily trafficked threads on the entire site.

 

[sunhelm]

Yes. I read Tesla's statement. The short-fall being referenced is their implied statement that deliveries would have been higher, but for the shortage of 100 kwh battery packs. So did they make the cars and park them until the battery packs showed up (counting those cars as production but not deliveries) or did they delay production on 100 kwh cars?

Until early June, production averaged about 40% below demand. Once this was resolved, June orders and deliveries were strong, ranking as one of the best in Tesla history.

The statement said the 100 kwh issue was resolved in June. The produced cars are completed cars and would be a combination of transit And inventory

 

[geneclean55]

Looks like many of the economy indicators recently reported for Q2 were just fine. I personally doubt that Q2 earnings season will be a bust for tech stock (and more broadly). With earnings season underway in earnest in just a couple weeks, I will be buying up any prior weakness.

 

[sundaymorning]

And yet this is one of the 2 most heavily trafficked threads on the entire site.

The odds are still much better than visiting Vegas, so we find ourselves here. Tesla will likely be the hottest growth stock on the Nasdaq for the foreseeable future, or at least the next 5-10 years. This forum serves as validation to this point. No other stock drives as much interest & analytics as Tesla. For long term holders, this IS the place to be as it brings out the best information to validate holding the stock & buying the car. It's a great overall business, and great businesses will drive massive consumer interest.

 

[Curt Renz]

Yes. I read Tesla's statement. The short-fall being referenced is their implied statement that deliveries would have been higher, but for the shortage of 100 kwh battery packs. So did they make the cars and park them until the battery packs showed up (counting those cars as production but not deliveries) or did they delay production on 100 kwh cars?

There was no shortfall. Deliveries were at the lower end of guidance, but not below. MarketWatch originally wrote about this incorrectly. I emailed the author and she corrected it: Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

Deliveries could have been higher, but for the fact that many of the produced cars were sent to service centers as loaners and to stores for test drives. It does appear that some of those who ordered 100 kWh battery packs will be experiencing delays.

 

[madodel]

Bernstein predicts Tesla shares to plunge despite Musk's bullish tweets

While investors may be optimistic on Tesla's Model 3 production plans, which were tweeted by Elon Musk overnight, Bernstein is still skeptical the company will be able to produce the new electric car at a profit.

Analyst Toni Sacconaghi noted Musk's tweets, if accurate, mean Tesla will be able to manufacture the Model 3 at an annualized rate of more than 240,000 cars by the end of fiscal 2017 versus his total estimate for fiscal 2018 of 225,000 Model 3 vehicles.

"On net, initial production ramp for the Model 3 looks like it may be better than expected – but investors should continue to focus on whether the Model 3 can be produced profitably and with strong initial quality," Sacconaghi wrote in a note to clients Monday. "Specifically, we worry that if Tesla has struggled to make money (and produce GMs [gross profit margins] above 25%) on its $100,000 Model X and Model S sedans, that it may be difficult for it to make money on Model 3."

The analyst reaffirmed his market perform rating for Tesla and price target of $250, representing 31 percent downside from Friday's close.

Road testing for the Model 3 has been "limited" as Tesla decided not make a prototype car, Sacconaghi noted. As result, he said he is concerned the new electric car may have quality issues and hurt the company's brand.
Insanity!

Buying opportunity

 

[AlMc]

Buying opportunity

No offense intended. Not directed at you specifically as it is just a comment on this general concept.

Is there ever a time when there is a 'red day' for TSLA that someone does not declare it is a buying opportunity?

I am not saying this down turn does not represent a buying opportunity but not every down day is a buying opportunity

If one believes in this company and the stock will be $400 or more in the near future then just buy the stock and hold it.

If one is looking for a real buying opportunity for short term gain then you look for something Iike @vgrinshpun posted about China GF last week.

Again, just a general comment

 

[madodel]

No offense intended. Not directed at you specifically as it is just a comment on this general concept.

Is there ever a time when there is a 'red day' for TSLA that someone does not declare it is a buying opportunity?

I am not saying this down turn does not represent a buying opportunity but not every down day is a buying opportunity

Why wouldn't it be a buying opportunity? Do you really think TSLA is going to continue to plummet? Are you selling? So yes I see it as a buying opportunity.

 

[jhm]

I've been saying it's good to accumulate shares below $370. Now we know that delivery guidance was hit and that Model 3 continues to move along at good pace. What's more we have guidance for all three models through end of year. So buying at around $350 with this solid information in had is truly a good opportunity.

I do think that putting some hard numbers around the Model 3 ramp (20k in Dec) does force the market to do a little reality check. Conceptually we knew M3 was going to have a steep ramp, but now we ask ourselves, can Tesla really hit 20k M3 in Dec? So hype will draw back a bit, but as Tesla makes progress delivering 30 in July, 100 in Aug, 1500 in Sep, we will gain confidence in 20k by Dec. This will support healthy stock price growth all along the way.

 

[Jayjs20]

TSLA will plummet if nasdaq and tech stocks in general continues to plummet. We've seen multiple recent days that started out strong but ended up deep in the red solely due to the broader market.

 

[FredTMC]

I've been saying it's good to accumulate shares below $370. Now we know that delivery guidance was hit and that Model 3 continues to move along at good pace. What's more we have guidance for all three models through end of year. So buying at around $350 with this solid information in had is truly a good opportunity.

I do think that putting some hard numbers around the Model 3 ramp (20k in Dec) does force the market to do a little reality check. Conceptually we knew M3 was going to have a steep ramp, but now we ask ourselves, can Tesla really hit 20k M3 in Dec? So hype will draw back a bit, but as Tesla makes progress delivering 30 in July, 100 in Aug, 1500 in Sep, we will gain confidence in 20k by Dec. This will support healthy stock price growth all along the way.

Just to clarify what others have said, I think Elon is implying they'll try to exit Dec at a 20k per Month "run rate". In other words, Dec production total will be something less than 20k for the whole month of Dec

 

[gaswalla]

Seems like an hour or two before the close today, word got out about quarterly deliveries, and how it would be spun in the media

 

[Waiting4M3]

I absolutely read those tweets as saying a *rate* of 20000 per month by December.

If you interpret it as 20000 in December... December really only has three production weeks, thank you Christmas, so that's 6700/week by December. That would be amazing since it's higher than the 5000/week he was talking about previously (when explaining that going from 5000/week to 10000/week would require extra capex).

I don't believe it. I think he meant 5000/week by end of December.

Maybe Alient Dreadnaught don't take X-mas off?