2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[geneclean55]

Didn't hold the 50 day on the second go-around.
I will be buying in the 325-330 range.
And then the rest of my cash in the 290-300 (if it gets that low)

 

[Starno]

If rocket launch hadn't been aborted and would have been a successful launch, maybe Elon would have had more time to focus on tweeting some good stuff about Tesla and TSLA ...

 

[T3slaTulips]

Now I know why my wife dislikes that song so.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Hope everyone is taking this dip in step, I know it's not fun for anyone leveraged (*raises hand*). I closed my August calls this morning and my shortest time frame is now basically Nov. Most important thing is to not panic sell long positions and get shaken out. Tesla, Inc is operating as smoothly as ever and M3 is on track for a timely launch an ramp. Semi will be next in the midst of M3 ramp and TSLA will start to get some credit on future stated timelines.

 

[Drax7]

tamborino is clearly trying to hurt Tesla with his negative interpretations and forecasts.
And any temporary weakness at Tesla he exploits for maximum impact.

Eventually Elon will outflank him.

 

[D-egg-O]

$17 drop in 45min. Amazing. We're probably also hitting trailing stop trigger points. Waiting for the dust to settle. Can't say I didn't buy any shares already though.

 

[Ghostman]

Has anyone heard about any updates on the SA project? It's been quiet on the TE front.

 

[ggr]

Tesla analyst commentary at Guggenheim Tesla price target raised to $430 from $380 at Guggenheim. Guggenheim analyst Robert Cihra raised his price target for Tesla shares to $430 and reiterates a Buy rating on the name. The stock closed Monday down $8.99 to $352.62. Early production constraints of its new high-end 100kWh battery packs led to Q2 deliveries of just 22,000, below the analyst's 23,900 estimate. The bigger news, however, is Monday's revelation that production of the new Model 3 is on track to start in July, Cihra tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes most thought the target would not be met just a few months ago and he notes the Model 3 represents Tesla's first car to genuinely launch on schedule. He sees two-to-three years of "upside leverage to also now start as volumes ramp off Tesla's high fixed-cost structure". Read more at: Tesla price target raised to $430 from $380 at Guggenheim TSLA - The Fly
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tesla analyst commentary at Bernstein Tesla Q2 delivery data raises 'more questions than answers,' says Bernstein. Bernstein analyst A.M. (Toni) Sacconaghi, Jr says that Tesla's Q2 delivery data was "modestly disappointing." Sacconaghi,says that the data raises several questions, including why the company didn't discuss poor production of its 100 kWh battery on its Q1 earnings call and why it conditioned its delivery forecast on the second half of 2017. The analyst also notes that the company did not provide in-transit vehicle sales, as it usually does. Sacconaghi, suspects that the company's inventory "increased materially" for the third straight quarter, and says that the data "raises more questions than answers, particularly about Model S and Model X demand." However, the analyst says that " the Tesla investment thesis hinges on the success of Model 3." Sacconaghi,keeps a $250 price target and a Market Perform rating on the stock. Read more at: Tesla Q2 delivery data raises 'more questions than answers,' says Bernstein TSLA - The Fly

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tesla analyst commentary at Goldman Sachs Tesla price target cut to $180 on Model S/X demand plateau at Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino believes Model S and Model X demand is "plateauing" at around 24K units per quarter. The analyst moved forward his Model 3 production curve by two months due to the soft July launch date which results in a lower vehicle mix profile and lower margins, and drives EBITDA estimates down by an average of 7% for the period of 2017-2020. Tamberrino maintains a Sell rating on Tesla and trimmed his price target to $180 from $190. Read more at: Tesla price target cut to $180 on Model S/X demand plateau at Goldman Sachs TSLA - The Fly

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On Yahoo Finance, GS got all the headlines, no mention of Guggenheim at all.

 

[Starno]

tamborino is clearly trying to hurt Tesla with his negative interpretations and forecasts.
And any temporary weakness at Tesla he exploits for maximum impact.

Eventually Elon will outflank him.

Elon only cares when the SP is up though lol

 

[Starno]

Look at TSLA chart, then NASDAQ chart ... surprising?

 

[Paracelsus]

There are many technical indicators showing that this should be "the bottom" for this dip. I would not be surprised if GS is trying to use their downgrade to try and help TSLA break down through this area as a break through of this area may produce a large drop. If TSLA does break through this level I doubt it will be because of GS and more of it was going to break through anyway as GS has proved their irrelevance concerning TSLA PT for quite a while now.

Completely agree. The GS note appears to be a well-timed psychological play at what looks to be a technical-driven pullback while we are at the bottom of the 7 month trading channel and the lower BB. The trading channel that has formed from December-to-present looks to be very supportive of this price action, and if we return to the bottom of the channel then we should see a pull-back that remains in the 340-level followed by some sideways trading back to the 350 level over the next few weeks to establish a new support area if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable. Daily price action will of course overshoot these levels, making this a great time for those playing the discrepancies between the Daily Chart and the Monthly Chart formations (i.e. 335 today will look like a strong 340+ on the chart next month). Should all systems remain 'Go' we could (should?) be riding the bottom of the channel until the next push upwards to begin by mid-to-late July, which also conveniently could land at the next psychological and technical barrier of 400 (expect another GS downgrade to 150 if we reach 400 in October?). In the last 7 months we have had two 50-point moves followed by sideways trading for several weeks before continuing. If it takes most of the month of July to establish a new lower resistance level around the 340-350 level before the Model 3 deliveries are made then we will have had time for a test and retest (double bottom) this support level prior to the Semi unveil and perhaps some good TE news on the Q2 report. Personally I would like to see that Tesla's 'battery-shortage' last quarter was due in part to TE project demands (creating sufficient inventory for the Australia timeline commitment?).

It will be very interesting to observe the differences in this pullback to those of recent years because previous pullbacks did not include a base that was supported by a Yuuuge Tencent position. Many on this board have mentioned 'buying opportunities'........and this must look like a real TSLA buying opportunity for institutional investors and corporations that really want to back the big trucks up. Is GS trying to drive the price down for some of these clients?

 

[Richgoogol]

Bought more shares @ 340.5 and more @ 334.9

 

[FluxCap]

A lot of stops are getting triggered today, which magnifies selling in sharp movements like this. I think if deliveries had been more solid we would have bounced back up hard, but now investors are starting to realize that execution risk is no longer a far-off concern but a right-now one. I have no doubt the company will execute and overcome any small obstacles in the way on the path to selling tens and hundreds of thousands of cars, but many traders see more risks along this path today than they cared to pay attention to in the first half of this year.

The share price could break down more technicals and continue to trigger more stops, or a sentiment shift could cause a bounce. Hard to tell in the short term. I'm cautiously optimistic, but cautious.

 

[AlMc]

Bought more shares @ 340.5 and more @ 334.9

I have an order in at $332.

Not advice.

 

[traxila]

I have an order in at $332.

Not advice.

I took your advice and have monster buy order at 332. That heloc leverage will be paid back in no time baby!

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Planned to buy another 100 shares this morning if they were still in the 350s. Woke up to find I could buy them in the 330s instead. Nice! Added 100 shares to my holdings.

 

[Richgoogol]

I have an order in at $332.

Not advice.

Dude..don't undercut me man... LOL

 

[neroden]

Great news from Volvo! (and we wish on the M3 forecast )

Digging into it, Volvo is doing less than it at first appears.
(1) They are apparently going to continue making existing models of gasoline-only cars even after 2019; they've just stopped designing new models
(2) There are apparently a lot of "mild hybrids" in the post-2019 design queue.

That's... not as impressive as I initially thought. :-( Basically they're going all-PHEV, but very slowly.

The announcement might be part of the reason for the sudden TSLA crash today, though. It looks more impressive in the headline than it turns out to be in the details, and Geely is making some impressive strides into electrification with its other brands already.

 

[viKtor slamet]

Wow.. -$20 in a few hours.. at this rate we would be -$60 by end of day, $290 close. By next week we could be $0.. What are we supposed to do??

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I think we've hit the bottom and are already on our way back up. If not, I'll buy another 100 shares in the 320s.