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Well, lots of those are 48 volt mild hybrids with no plug. Plus lots more of the XC90 T8 low AER PHEV style of vehicles... which haven't exactly been volume leaders for them. They are announcing that electric options will be available across all their vehicle lineup, not that all the vehicles sold will have electric traction motors.
From their press release:
(emphasis mine)
And certainly:
Is an admission that Tesla's direction is the right one. But Volvo isn't saying that all cars produced in the 2019 model year will be electrified, just that all models will provide an electric option. That's still a great step and very late in coming. This is also the direction BMW is going which is to provide a PHEV option across their lineup.
It will take some time for the market to understand this though... the bear narrative that competition is coming in 2018/2019/2020 is only partially correct. Yes, there will be offerings. But then we get to compete and really see where things stand. The common assumption is that the major automakers will find it easy to compete against Tesla in all electric long range vehicles. That's not certain.
DurandalAI
Member
Dang. Today is painful, and one of those days where I wish I had forgotten to watch the stock price. I'm still long, expecting a return to prices just below $400 by the end of the year, but ouch...
Reciprocity
Active Member
My point was that the reason why the stock is down so much is that there is some idea that hitting low end of estimates on deliveries means demand is down. When everyone realizes that demand is not down and hitting the low end of expectations is not so terrible when you consider that in 2016 they missed the low end of 80-90k by 3k cars and they are actually setting proper expectations and meeting them now. So when they guide to 57-60k in the second half (not including M3), then that would be much higher then people expect after all the fears of flatting demand.
Yeah, my paper losses are over $120K so far today. No short term options though, so if there is a reversal in the next 6 months I'll recover completely.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
So far it looks like you came pretty close though
.Unfortunately (maybe fortunately for you) we were both correct that Monday's $350 wasn't a buying opportunity.
If SP closes today in the 330s it would be about a $40 drop in two days of trading. Geez stock market, overreact much? I deviated from my principles and started trading weekly call options too much from money made from covered calls. My initial strategy was to use money from covered calls to buy puts as short term volatility insurance against events like earnings calls and quarterly deliveries. You live and you learn.
I expect it to get lower than that. Probably 250 or so before it bottoms.
We won't have truly impressive news (to non daily followers) until probably December at earliest. I think the semi reveal in Sept, then Q1'18 numbers will be the next chances for positive news to reverse the downtrend brought on by fairly bad delivery numbers that add ammunition to short demand issue thesises (sp?) and the GS downgrade that, while irrelevant to the informed always seems to move TSLA a few percent on their notes.
Holding plenty of cash and buying when I see some sustained uptrend near positive news. Hoping for 250 or lower, happy anywhere under 300.
EDIT: Clarifying that I haven't and don't intend to sell any, just not buying any yet. Also my crappy predictions above are based on gut feel, my opinion on how TSLA behaves as a sick, how the market tends to behave, and is not based on anything that changes my fundamental views.
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Runarbt
Active Member
Fairly bad delivery numbers?
Within guidance.
No good news until december? M3 friday, and so on until december.. it is only good news all the way.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Yup, this is what make Tesla such an easy stock to accumulate. Just wait for the market to barf all over good news, and buy at a discount.Friday we were over 360. Since Friday, we have learned that Model 3 is two weeks ahead of schedule, and that they are still expecting a good ramp to 5,000/week by December. We also learned that they met guidance for Q2 and the first half of 2017, and they expect increased S/X sales for the rest of the year. Despite all the good news, the stock drops around 10%. Unbelievable how hard this stuff is to predict.....
We also learned that Tesla has a new 1 million mile drive unit that enhances the acceleration of non-performance version Model S and X. The 300 kW drive unit was developed for thr Model 3 and will be used for the Semi. In short term, the new drive units will enhance demand for Model S and X.
Oof, I could handle 290 ish. But down to the 250s would be a rejection of the new trading range that TSLA has established since forming a base over several years.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I don't think so. I believe that $300-$330 is the bottom.
I think that the reveal, semi reveal, the Gigafactory announcements, and the Q3 ER will all be positive catalysts.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
First, the new M3 line is almost 100% automated and takes time to go from 30 to 2,500 ~ we are not dealing with an ice cream store where you install the machines and pull the handle to fill your cup with soft ice cream ~ the bottleneck is waiting for the fruit or added sugar to pile onto the saturated fat This (M3 assembly line) is a well orchestrated process ~ thank my god the machines do not have to stop for pee and poo breaks ~ can you imagine if they stopped to smoke em if they had them? If something snages in the assembly line it will be worse than a 60 car pileup on the I5 between Huntington Beach and Long Beach California at rush hour.
So, sit back and imagine a casual drive through the last remaining forest and dried streambed. At least act surprised when Elon doubles the numbers along the way between now and December 2017. If you actually have a M3 on order and are at the head of the line, I'll bet you will be happier than a pig eating poo receiving the call, text or email that your car is ready ~ I would.
This (M3 assembly line) is a well orchestrated process ~ thank my god the machines do not have to stop for pee and poo breaks ~ can you imagine if they stopped to smoke em if they had them? If something snages in the assembly line it will be worse than a 60 car pileup on the I5 between Huntington Beach and Long Beach California at rush hour.So, sit back and imagine a casual drive through the last remaining forest and dried streambed. At least act surprised when Elon doubles the numbers along the way between now and December 2017. If you actually have a M3 on order and are at the head of the line, I'll bet you will be happier than a pig eating poo receiving the call, text or email that your car is ready ~ I would.
Indeed. Tesla is pure joy. As I'm buying nearly everyday, everytime it's down, it's more money on the long term.
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