Is there any evidence that technical analysis is statistically any better than letting an ape throw a dart?
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Begs the question. Who bought?
I have personally visited Lucid a few times. I was not impressed. I don't consider them worthy of a buyout by the likes of aapl.
On the other hand, aapl making a play on tsla is one of those rumors that has been around for so long one gets numb to it. There is an infinitesimally small chance of it happening in some fashion or another but my feel is the odds are decreasing by the day.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I would rather spend $3B on Lucid than Beats.
I consider TA analogous to ants around an ant hill... there's ants everywhere and they individually move in almost random directions. But there are also definite patterns that form dark lines. Also, those preferred paths shift in their own random fashion, slowly over time.
Pretty open-ended question. Depends on your goals? Buy and hold, or more active trader?
In all honesty, some of the candle-stick patterns, such as head and shoulders, ascending triangles etc seem to be pretty hit or miss in terms of predictive value in my experience.
However, TA encompasses a ton of stuff. If you don't have a good sense of support/resistance zones, general up or down trends, volume weighted average price, price volume distribution etc then you are liable to enter trades at poor locations - which can negatively effect even buy and hold strategies. If you are day-trading and don't acknowledge these variables your lunch will get eaten IMO.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Just from my personal experience, I started using TA more for defining entry points for TSLA last year. I don't day or swing trade TSLA. However from learning about TA related to TSLA, I've been able to get in and out of other stocks with a profit (some good, others small).
Except one stock, which was bought as a specific negative hypothesis. Every TA indicator was bad, so I bought a relatively small position to test if it was predictive*... and well, much to my chagrine it was/is. Still sitting on paper losses on that stock, and every time it tries to climb out it just gets punched back down. Wife just ignores that one now, but she seems more comfortable with my TA predictions on our holdings (and acts accordingly). I had specifically told her that we were buying that stock because the TA was bad, although at the time it seemed "cheap" based on valuation articles and the fundamentals looked good. So far the TAs have been winning on that stock.
*some would say why didn't I just do a paper trade (pretend I bought and just track). Problem is if I didn't have skin in the game, I would have just patted myself on the back after following it for a week or so, and forget about it. I would never have really seen what the stock did/does, as I know now.
the thing about TA is... similar to many on this board doing their own DCFs... the data you put into it is directly related to the data that you get out of it... so if you draw a line with a bearish opinion... or spot a pattern with a bullish opinion... then you might trick yourself into either seeing something that's not really there or missing something that's clearly there... and I think the art of "getting good at TA" (not suggesting I am)... is to try to avoid this.
I'm not buying the chart the CNBC guy threw out there... I'm on board with a retrace back to the trendline... but when I draw the chart I see that trendline at $315 - $320... and when he draws it... he sees it around $340...
I had already analyzed the 1y chart a number of times before seeing his clip... and my 2c is... it's already recovered to a trendline... and it might be in the middle of a bear flag.
regarding TA in general... do pilots find their favorite instrument on the dashboard, pick one and decide that's the one they'll go with?... no... they use every instrument they have available to make sure they're right side up... including "seat of the pants"...
TA is an instrument... and can aid in decision making on many different time intervals... to completely disregard it is the equivalent of a pilot deciding altimeters are always stupid and they'll just look out the window at the horizon.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Tesla Solar Roof: Panasonic is hiring 300 workers for the production of solar cells
I expect ~20k units and $1.5B revenue from Solar Roof in 2018.
I expect ~20k units and $1.5B revenue from Solar Roof in 2018.
bdy0627
Active Member
Strong evidence for momentum/trending over longer timeframes. I recommend Antonacci's book Dual Momentum Investing.
I can believe that.
If you're selling options, you're behaving like a MM, i.e. you're 'the house'.
You just have to have enough volume to make sure that 'house always wins', and to avoid that one lucky guy cleans you out
But that's also a complex strategy, I doubt individual can really implement it. Simple version of it is selling covered calls, because by definition you don't lose anything; except, it turns out you limit your gains, which is about as bad, if you wanted to hold.
I found that I was much better in choosing the right stock(company) than anticipating how quickly/slowly it will rise. Before Tesla, I made couple 100% gains combined on FB, NFLX, AMZN, and I was sold out of all of my stock because of the covered calls (even with rolling out and other mitigating strategies). Could have done much, much better if I didn't try to squeeze couple of extra percents. Hence the phrase "picking pennies in front of the steamroller" really resonates with me.
I find options frequently pollute my trades.
Even if you figure the direction correctly, both the magnitude
And timing could be way off .
Found on reddit (thanks to JJJandak):
Tesla Model 3 Is Only American Car Eligible For This Year's North American Car of The Year
Tesla Model 3 Is Only American Car Eligible For This Year's North American Car of The Year
mutle
Member
Beats actually had a good headphone business with more than $1B in sales per year and a good margin. As well as a music streaming platform (including licensing deals with Music labels) that Apple could build on. It's not as great as the NeXT acquisition but has probably already more than paid for itself.
Considering the Bolt won last year, I think we can consider it a very good chance model 3 wins. Looks like these come out in November:
Chevrolet Bolt EV is the 2017 Motor Trend Car of the Year - Motor Trend
Should be just the right time to create some demand assuming production is ramping up to plan (if it is even needed looking at the reservation numbers)
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
There is definitive proof that it doesn't work. But because a lot of people use it there is a tendency for bollingerv bands, and support levels etc. to be helpful
It depends on the person doing the TA though. After watching Jesse's hangout call,with DaveT and following his posts I believe that Jesse uses TA to get excellent results.
Tesla Announces Date for Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results and Webcast
PALO ALTO, Calif., July 11, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla (Nasdaq:TSLA) will post its financial results for the second quarter of 2017 after market close on Wednesday, August 2nd, 2017. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q2 2017 Update Letter, which will be available on the Tesla IR website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.
What: Date of Tesla Q2 2017 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, August 2nd, 2017
Time: 2:30pm Pacific Time / 5:30pm Eastern Time
Shareholder Letter: http://ir.tesla.com
Webcast: http://ir.tesla.com (live and replay)
Approximately two hours after the Q&A session, an archived version of the webcast will be available on the Company's website.
For additional information, please visit ir.tesla.com.
Investor Relations Contact:
Jeff Evanson
Tesla
[email protected]
PALO ALTO, Calif., July 11, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla (Nasdaq:TSLA) will post its financial results for the second quarter of 2017 after market close on Wednesday, August 2nd, 2017. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q2 2017 Update Letter, which will be available on the Tesla IR website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.
What: Date of Tesla Q2 2017 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, August 2nd, 2017
Time: 2:30pm Pacific Time / 5:30pm Eastern Time
Shareholder Letter: http://ir.tesla.com
Webcast: http://ir.tesla.com (live and replay)
Approximately two hours after the Q&A session, an archived version of the webcast will be available on the Company's website.
For additional information, please visit ir.tesla.com.
Investor Relations Contact:
Jeff Evanson
Tesla
[email protected]
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