2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[techmaven]

There is definitive proof that it doesn't work. But because a lot of people use it there is a tendency for bollingerv bands, and support levels etc. to be helpful

It depends on the person doing the TA though. After watching Jesse's hangout call,with DaveT and following his posts I believe that Jesse uses TA to get excellent results.

My belief is that TA works when it works and then doesn't work when it doesn't.

Basically, enough people practice TA that in "quiet" times, TA can dominate the trading. It can help explain group behavior when the group is being predictable in its psychology. But around news events that alter the perception of the business, it is of much less use. It can help determine how far something runs or falls. It seems to me to be best when there's very little else to go on.

 

[racer26]

Tesla Announces Date for Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results and Webcast

PALO ALTO, Calif., July 11, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla (Nasdaq:TSLA) will post its financial results for the second quarter of 2017 after market close on Wednesday, August 2nd, 2017. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q2 2017 Update Letter, which will be available on the Tesla IR website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.

What: Date of Tesla Q2 2017 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, August 2nd, 2017
Time: 2:30pm Pacific Time / 5:30pm Eastern Time
Shareholder Letter: http://ir.tesla.com
Webcast: http://ir.tesla.com (live and replay)
Approximately two hours after the Q&A session, an archived version of the webcast will be available on the Company's website.

For additional information, please visit ir.tesla.com.

Investor Relations Contact:

Jeff Evanson

Tesla

[email protected]

As expected - the week after Model 3 party. If it were bad news, wouldn't they try to have it before the Model 3 party to drown it in Model 3 news within a day or two?

Anybody got models of what 22k vehicles makes the bottom line look like?

 

[racer26]

My belief is that TA works when it works and then doesn't work when it doesn't.

Basically, enough people practice TA that in "quiet" times, TA can dominate the trading. It can help explain group behavior when the group is being predictable in its psychology. But around news events that alter the perception of the business, it is of much less use. It can help determine how far something runs or falls. It seems to me to be best when there's very little else to go on.

TA works because people think it works - its a self-fulfilling prophecy.

It also doesn't work as soon as there is fundamental news.

 

[MitchJi]

I believe that the most important number for Tesla to meet in the short term (but completely irrelevant in the long term) is producing close to thirty cars in time for the reveal. If they miss that by as little as four or five cars I believe that it will be bad news for the SP.

 

[madodel]

Tesla is expanding service. Maybe all the talk of producing the Model 3 isn't fake.

Tesla‏Verified account @TeslaMotors
The future of Tesla service

Tesla on Twitter

 

[austinEV]

FYI, mark today as the official death of "fold gate" Tesla demonstrates its new 7-seat Model X with fold-flat second row configuration

(annoyed because I totally would have gotten it, even though I got the 6 seater which may never get fold down.)

Trading relevance: A ton of people will consider an X now that would not have before. Bullish.

 

[Ameliorate]

TA works because people think it works - its a self-fulfilling prophecy.

It also doesn't work as soon as there is fundamental news.

Yep saw lots of articles and videos about TSLA bouncing back/hitting the bottom. Self fulfilling prophecy indeed.
Back to the days of the porridge not too hot/cold? @Papafox TSLA one of the better performing stocks this a.m. lots of tech/auto in red.

It's all guesswork, nobody Knows where the SP is headed, TA seems to help define ranges, have seen accurate tops and bottoms called quite often. It appears you can do slightly better guesswork With TA so i'm inclined to pay attention.

 

[jhm]

Ok, I bumped up my limit order to $305 today. Let's see if shorts try something stupid.

 

[Mkorpal]

I believe that the most important number for Tesla to meet in the short term (but completely irrelevant in the long term) is producing close to thirty cars in time for the reveal. If they miss that by as little as four or five cars I believe that it will be bad news for the SP.

On the other hand, if they beat it...

Although the bare minimum of 100 deliveries in August is more important.

 

[geneclean55]

Yep saw lots of articles and videos about TSLA bouncing back/hitting the bottom. Self fulfilling prophecy indeed.
Back to the days of the porridge not too hot/cold? @Papafox TSLA one of the better performing stocks this a.m. lots of tech/auto in red.

It's all guesswork, nobody Knows where the SP is headed, TA seems to help define ranges, have seen accurate tops and bottoms called quite often. It appears you can do slightly better guesswork With TA so i'm inclined to pay attention.

The counter argument I have heard, is that as the market becomes more and more algo driven, with less human involvement, the more technical it becomes.

 

[Krugerrand]

"Fully commissioned": could be interpreted as the facility is being placed in operation in phases similar to the GF (and Hornsdale's turbines.)

Oh, stop. It's been pointed out to you already that the China project, if it gets done, will only be partially operational in 2020. The South Australia project will be the largest, fully operational one of its kind until such time as its not. At which point Tesla will already be working on something bigger than South Australia. Feel free to argue something of relevance.

 

[elasalle]

Is there any evidence that technical analysis is statistically any better than letting an ape throw a dart?

Looks like TA presented on CNBC works

 

[Krugerrand]

I have personally visited Lucid a few times. I was not impressed. I don't consider them worthy of a buyout by the likes of aapl.

Can you elaborate about what specifically did not impress you and what would have impressed you? We need a frame of reference that we can all understand otherwise you not being impressed doesn't hold significance.

 

[Krugerrand]

I consider TA analogous to ants around an ant hill... there's ants everywhere and they individually move in almost random directions. But there are also definite patterns that form dark lines. Also, those preferred paths shift in their own random fashion, slowly over time.

I disagreed with your post based on the fact that ants are super organized. There's little randomness to their actions/movements. Only the 'scouts' wander in randomness and that is away from the anthill as they go looking for resources.

 

[Krugerrand]

the thing about TA is... similar to many on this board doing their own DCFs... the data you put into it is directly related to the data that you get out of it... so if you draw a line with a bearish opinion... or spot a pattern with a bullish opinion... then you might trick yourself into either seeing something that's not really there or missing something that's clearly there... and I think the art of "getting good at TA" (not suggesting I am)... is to try to avoid this.

That's an excellent comment.

 

[Intl Professor]

Is there any evidence that technical analysis is statistically any better than letting an ape throw a dart?

We resemble that.

 

[The Blue Owl]

I disagreed with your post based on the fact that ants are super organized. There's little randomness to their actions/movements. Only the 'scouts' wonder in randomness and that is away from the anthill as they go looking for resources.

When searching for food, ants exhibit stochastic behaviour. It is not totally random, but randomness is an essential component, especially in the beginning, exploratory phase. Algorithms based on their behaviour can be simulated and are used in heuristic optimization applications (known as ant colony optimization algos).

All this to say that I quite liked 1kEE's analogy with TA. Those apparently random trails that humans leave in the form of TA patterns during their trading activities may actually contain information, which some (antsy?) traders may know how to sniff.

 

[neroden]

Is there any evidence that technical analysis is statistically any better than letting an ape throw a dart?

I don't know, but there IS evidence that throwing darts is better than buying index funds. (Seriously. Look up the history of the Wall Street Journal's "Dartboard Portfolio", made back in the days of paper stock listings by literally throwing darts at the stock listing pages. It beat the indexes.) So if technical analysis is as good as throwing darts, hey, it has an advantage over index funds. And we already know that index funds do better than most individual investors, so I'm not ready to disregard technical analysis entirely.

 

[Navin]

Bottom in place. Technicals are real/not voodoo. Tesla doesn't trade on fundamentals so technicals are more pronounced. See you guys at ATH.
Don't be surprised if we squeeze a little bit here to the upside. The circus around you is just that.

 

[geneclean55]

Gonna be one of those 5%+ kinda days?