2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Chop110]

I am counting on the power hour to break through 330

Edit: or sooner... d@mn, that was too easy...

 

[geneclean55]

Market is back in beast mode. Bears are gonna have some problems.

 

[Jayjs20]

Mmmm...tug of war. The open today was 331.04. If they can get the SP to close under that, it'll look like a reverse bearish candle stick whose name escapes me at the moment.

 

[Intl Professor]

I didnt read the article yet, but I think what he might be alluding to is that Germany the government is going to allow the auto industry to just fail. I think many of assume that these companies will be allowed to just crumble under their own weight, but as we saw here in the US in 2008, the government can step in and prop them up. To me its not a matter of it there will be competition, its when and what form will it take. I like to use the Android vs IPhone argument. Iphone is monolithic and high margin and has a built in fan base that is extremely loyal. Android is fragmented, some phones are as good as iphones but much lower margins and quality issues like self immolating batteries. I see Tesla continuing to stay up market with their products. I dont see them ever making a no frills budget oriented car, just like Apple will never make a no frills budget oriented phone. Tesla's master plan is to create demand on such a level that other autos must respond and they seem to be doing a pretty good job at the first part of that plan. Tesla believes that they can stay 2 steps ahead of the competition and i agree. Even if the German government does step in to save the German auto industry at some point the amount of time it takes to ramp all this technology gives Tesla an almost insurmountable lead. Its not a factor of how much money you can throw it, as these things take time. Certainly they could build multiple batter factories at the same time or hope for dozens of parts supplier to do the same, but hope is not really a business plan I would want to invest in. Until I see it, and it should be obvious to those of us following, im not buying the notion of 2020 Tesla killers. I see a hundred android phones coming and some will have some nice features, but most will have razor thing margins and will be mundane and fugly like the Bolt, which would be a great car if it cost $20k. In 25 years, I see Tesla with 30%+ of the global car market and 90% of the global car market profits. Ill take that any day and twice on Sunday.

I agree totally with the observation Tesla does not have competition for a few, at least, and maybe as much as five or more years into the future. However, since Germany is ahead on almost all activities in the direction of clean energy, any increase in that investment is not likely to balance out lethargy or losses on the auto side. Thus I believe the German government will, indeed, bail out the industry if needed. The argument will be the same as the U.S. bailout. The economy, suppliers, etc., would take too much of a hit. Hopefully, from their standpoint, it would be combined with conditions that demand the industry move in clean energy directions or at least more so than the US bailout.

WAG based on global macro view. Not discounted for irrationality on my part or theirs.

 

[Starno]

Market is back in beast mode. Bears are gonna have some problems.

Where?

 

[geneclean55]

Where?

Where?
Pull up a web browser, type in SPY, Nasdaq comp, QQQs, ES_F, NQ_F. Take your pick really.

Tech sector particularly strong. Hopefully bodes well for TSLA.

 

[geneclean55]

Hopefully this keeps coiling just below 330. Would be nervous as a short if come 3.45pm it is around that price.

 

[D-egg-O]

Hopefully this keeps coiling just below 330. Would be nervous as a short if come 3.45pm it is around that price.

Was about to say the SP is looking to set itself up for a repeat of yesterday's close. Finger's crossed.

 

[LoL Rick]

Someone really really doesn't want $TSLA over 330 today.
Edit: Doh, D-egg-O beat me by 6 minutes on that post.

Looks like they fell asleep at the switch. Busted through and topped 331.
Now let's hope they don't wake up anytime soon.

 

[madodel]

Looks like they fell asleep at the switch. Busted through and topped 331.
Now let's hope they don't wake up anytime soon.

They may have given up and decided to wait to play their games tomorrow instead. Displaying my ignorance as usual, but where are all the billions they are losing so far this year coming from?

 

[Chop110]

I have a feeling tomorrow is going to be a large cover day..

 

[bdy0627]

While it limits my upside my rule with ST options is if they are nicely up: Sell enough of them to cover your initial cost, plus 10% and let the rest ride.

NOT advice

EDIT: I have learned that my greed usually costs me more than my caution over time.

What's your approach for a ST option that dips way down quickly? For instance, I have a 7/21 $370 call I bought near the top that's worth hardly anything at this point. Seems to me the best approach is probably just sitting with it in case the share price rebounds strongly by 7/21, which it definitely could. However, it might be smart to roll further out in time. Thoughts?

 

[Jayjs20]

They may have given up and decided to wait to play their games tomorrow instead. Displaying my ignorance as usual, but where are all the billions they are losing so far this year coming from?

Koch Brothers throwing their money at killing electric cars. I'm 90% sure some of this is their work.

 

[Muaddid]

Well I'm sure they are shorts who truly believe TSLA is overpriced, but those trying to just "kill TSLA"... at what point do they realize their efforts were useless and bail out ?

 

[geneclean55]

That is quite the V-shaped 5 minute chart today.

 

[T3slaTulips]

Looks like they fell asleep at the switch. Busted through and topped 331.
Now let's hope they don't wake up anytime soon.

Oof. They woke up again. Come on $TSLA give them a knock out punch!

 

[Tslynk67]

The morons can spread all the FUD they want, which may cause some pain to some esteemed members of this forum, but it won't stop the wider public queuing to buy Tesla products which will, over time, win out.

 

[Jayjs20]

A green day is a green day, but I'm not liking that candle stick on the daily.

 

[moe.salih]

TSLA Short Interest

 

[erthquake]

Koch Brothers throwing their money at killing electric cars. I'm 90% sure some of this is their work.

I think we also have to consider parties interested in keeping the Fast and Furious franchise alive. Nobody would watch those movies if the cars were electric, high-performing though they are. No clutch or stick shift, no emergency brake, no NOX boost to throw their heads back in maniacal pleasure. No, it's not the Kochs worried about losing their bread and butter. It's...Vin Diesel .