2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[ggr]

Well, that was pleasant. After the shorts got through trying to hold it down this morning, a nice straight climb to $256. An hour to break through that, then another plateau at $257, but only for about 20 minutes. <wishful>Tomorrow morning, 5 minutes to break $258, two minutes to break $259, ...</wishful>

 

[doctoxics]

The opening tomorrow will be interesting and likely, informative. Traders will cash their gains, but there could be a whole lot of short-covering based on the action we just saw at the close.

 

[austinEV]

Kindly send (C.O.D.) sample of your wood.

No handling the wood!

 

[geneclean55]

The opening tomorrow will be interesting and likely, informative. Traders will cash their gains, but there could be a whole lot of short-covering based on the action we just saw at the close.

Also, we topped out around this price level on 1/25 after the surge from 180. Some cashed out then, leaving the stronger longs this time around.

To support this, the daily candle is super bullish and suggests at least some more upside tomorrow.

 

[Bgarret]

No handling the wood!

Are we also going to have to ban double Entendres?

 

[1kEE]

Oh boy, selling the Feb10-270 calls this morning will make this week entertaining for me hahaha. I was warned as to the risks....

 

[Hogfighter]

Oh boy, selling the Feb10-270 calls this morning will make this week entertaining for me hahaha. I was warned as to the risks....

Yea, but if it closes at 275, you still made a tidy profit!

 

[MitchJi]

Yes. S&P is broader. You can probably find puts on other market indexes. If you want a really broad-based bet, go with puts on both the Russell 2000 and the Russell 1000, which is the largest 3000 stocks in the market.

Chicago Board Options Exchange - The World's Largest Options Exchange

I wouldn't do it myself, but then I hate being on the wrong side of time decay.

Thanks! Does not require an ETF.

Billions of dollars in notional value are transacted on a daily basis in options on the popular S&P 500® (SPX) Index and in options on the S&P Dow Jones Indexes (OEX® and DJX), the Russell 2000® (RUT) Index, and on the NASDAQ-100® (NDX) Index.

I bought puts on DDM for the purpose. DDM is an ETF tracking the Dow with 2x leverage, and the theory is that it will fall faster when Dow falls. Puts for extra leverage, so that it's cheap, but I have some pretty good protection if the market plunges. It won't help much though if it goes to 22k first and then down to 19k. It will only work if the market goes down to pre-Trump levels or under before July, which is what I need insurance for anyway. Otherwise I'd be happy to write off the 100% loss on the puts.

Thanks! I'm concerned (need to do more research) that the market might take a huge dive in the Aug-Oct time frame.

Looking at the trading pattern today (high green, short red) suggests large investors establishing new long positions and/or closing short positions.

Two possible explanations. It should be possible to check the status with a significant number of M3 suppliers and get an encouraging picture.

Or M3 supplier employees could be buyers.

 

[geneclean55]

A new high (and close on the high) during after hours (258.04).

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA hard to overstate the symmetric beauty of totally sexy quarterly chart
Cup shaped pattern
Stock goes much higher

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA hard to believe that this stock will not run up to at least $800 to $1000 if not much higher over the next 8 quarters (2 years)

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA now of course if we get a super nice short squeeze (imminent) and a fantastic run comparable to 2013-2014 then I'm looking at a SP of $1800 to $2000

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA $1000 SP gets market cap of $159 billion eminently doable
$2000 might be a stretch but not if VW like short squeeze

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA with a short interest of 40 million shares SP can go into a parabolic rise once things start going wrong for shorts
Infact I'm betting on it
I recalled all my shares loaned out to shorts last week precisely for the same reason

 

[erthquake]

$TSLA with a short interest of 40 million shares SP can go into a parabolic rise once things start going wrong for shorts
Infact I'm betting on it
I recalled all my shares loaned out to shorts last week precisely for the same reason

Are you trying to manipulate algobots or something?

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Exciting times but... Algorithm bait^^^^^^^?

Edit: earthquake beat me to the thought.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

$TSLA with a short interest of 40 million shares SP can go into a parabolic rise once things start going wrong for shorts
Infact I'm betting on it
I recalled all my shares loaned out to shorts last week precisely for the same reason

I think it could happen but I think we need a trigger as most shorts are as firmly entrenched as longs were when we were under $200/share. Maybe that trigger is a surprise on earnings, maybe the final Model III reveal, maybe some kind of evidence shows up that shows Model 3 is on time for a good number of deliveries in 2017. Maybe we have to wait until they report their first profits on the Model 3 or do their first coast-to-coast fully autonomous. There could be 100 other things but I think we need something make a spark. Maybe breaking through all time highs is enough to make the shorts scramble for the door but I don't know...How about I keep enough LEAPS that I will do well in case you turn out to be right.

Sincerely,
"worn out bull"

 

[TrendTrader007]

I think it could happen but I think we need a trigger as most shorts are as firmly entrenched as longs were when we were under $200/share. Maybe that trigger is a surprise on earnings, maybe the final Model III reveal, maybe some kind of evidence shows up that shows Model 3 is on time for a good number of deliveries in 2017. Maybe we have to wait until they report their first profits on the Model 3 or do their first coast-to-coast fully autonomous. There could be 100 other things but I think we need something make a spark. Maybe breaking through all time highs is enough to make the shorts scramble for the door but I don't know...How about I keep enough LEAPS that I will do well in case you turn out to be right.

Sincerely,
"worn out bull"

I agree

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA took me 7 weeks and 1 day
Fastest $1 i ever made

 

[elasalle]

I think post Election.. lots of Short bets were made based on the assumption that EPA, new Admin would hurt "Green, Env" including Tesla - However the reverse has happened. EM is now in advisory role, Make In America - means hard to beat down on Tesla & big catalyst has also been TE

( I had made similar Long trades on Oct 2015 hoping for big rewards with Model X release - and until recently had just been on the losing end for almost the whole of 2016. ..)

Given that Quarterly deliveries are already known, looks like we have good tailwinds, and other than capital raise (if it happens at all) most of the news is going to be positive into and out of earnings .. on Feb 22nd