2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[dc_h]

I don't think PPS will go back down to $300 either. I think the PPS will run from here into Sep on the expectation of semi and potentially good news on GGF. Then if the end of Sep Q3 delivery # doesn't have any positive surprises, the bears will wait for the cash burn in the Q3ER and attack in mid Oct. We may get a 10% pull back. If M3 configuration flood gate opens by then, maybe the bears don't even get that chance.

I think there is close to zero market acknowledgement of the Semi. If they have an aggressive delivery target and customers lined up, I think even Jim Cramer will give up and have Elon on his show, if Elon accepts. If Cramer caves on the bear story it would be a short squeeze.
I'm not a fan of the squeeze, but if the model 3 is progressing well and they are still projecting 25% margins by mid 2018 and have a new truck with serious revenue, then 50 billion in 2019 revenue starts looking conservative.

 

[madodel]

We will know that we've won, that we've completely become mainstream as TSLA investors, when this forum becomes so popular that it is unusable due to trolls.

At times it already is.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Anne Boleyn and I are buying a Tesla model X this weekend just sent a request for a referral code to Papa fox

 

[TrendTrader007]

Excited to trade in my 2009 Honda Civic Florida Tesla model X

Cannot resist sharing that I did end up buying more Tesla at the open yesterday at $357.35

I fully expect tesla to cross $400 a share within the next couple of weeks at most

 

[dw4ngg]

Anne Boleyn and I are buying a Tesla model X this weekend just sent a request for a referral code to Papa fox

Can someone shoot me a referral code as well pls?

 

[Tslynk67]

Can someone shoot me a referral code as well pls?

Here you go: My Tesla Referral Code

Would love a referral - I have one right now and get a toy car, which is no use to me whatsoever, will donate to an orphanage, or something!

 

[Tslynk67]

Anne Boleyn and I are buying a Tesla model X this weekend just sent a request for a referral code to Papa fox

Photo, or it didn't happen!

 

[jhm]

I think there is close to zero market acknowledgement of the Semi. If they have an aggressive delivery target and customers lined up, I think even Jim Cramer will give up and have Elon on his show, if Elon accepts. If Cramer caves on the bear story it would be a short squeeze.
I'm not a fan of the squeeze, but if the model 3 is progressing well and they are still projecting 25% margins by mid 2018 and have a new truck with serious revenue, then 50 billion in 2019 revenue starts looking conservative.

I can tell you that the smartest people in the oil industry do not want to acknowledge that a Tesla Semi is even feasible. This cuts right into the will to deny. Ignorance will persist in the market as long as motivates opponents can muster denial. Get ready for the propaganda machines to get dialed up to max gain.

 

[Vad42]

Excited to trade in my 2009 Honda Civic Florida Tesla model X

Cannot resist sharing that I did end up buying more Tesla at the open yesterday at $357.35

I fully expect tesla to cross $400 a share within the next couple of weeks at most

How long till you have to be listed in major shareholders list?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I note that TSLA is not as sensitive to geopolitical risk as the overall stock market.

If, for example, things with North Korea escalated further, I would expect TSLA to get hit short-term because of a potential long-squeeze (like the one we just witnessed in July), but because of several fundamental reasons, I would expect this to be short-lived.

Just don't go into a war with 200% margin...

 

[kenliles]

Just don't go into a war with 200% margin...

or
you [only] go to war with the army you have -

 

[DurandalAI]

I don't think I will cancel my NFLX subscription over this, so not sure if that's a bad thing for NFLX, maybe they will save more money by paying less licensing fee than the money from losing subs. It will likely be more certainly a bad thing for DIS though. Losing viewers is always a bad thing.

Considering that Disney makes a lot of money through merchandising, there's likely some lost opportunity by not continuing to plaster their brands across the faces of children who are watching programs on Netflix as it is likely the only (or one of two) streaming services that the children's parents subscribe to. I think it's very short-sighted. They are better off with short-term licensing where the movies are only on Netflix for a month or so, on a rotating basis, to infect minds for potential merch sales and then move on to another property.

 

[DurandalAI]

We will know that we've won, that we've completely become mainstream as TSLA investors, when this forum becomes so popular that it is unusable due to trolls.

So that means we're almost there?

 

[DurandalAI]

Yes, market will. Too far out to be material to current SP until Tesla takes some material steps to get to 10k/wk.

But I'm a very long-term investor so it matters to me.

The short-term traders are very similar in my mind to most company CEOs and board members who seem to be highly driven towards shorter term stock prices rather than the long-term health of the company. You can readily see it with floundering tech companies such as HPE (HP Enterprise) who has a new plan on how they are going to do things every 4 years or so while they bleed out talent and cash. Another example would be IBM who did similarly.
The companies and investors who do well are because they have a long term (10-20 year) vision and plan, continually refining and tweaking towards that goal, ensuring that the ship is pointing in the correct direction. Apple had that once Steve Jobs came back on board, well known investors of fame are known to do the same, and we have this with Elon Musk in Tesla and Space X. I will more easily get behind someone who has a long term plan than a bunch of short term plans that change with the wind.

Luckily, most of us are long term along with Elon, the momentum chasers and typical analysts are too concerned about short term trends to fully capitalize on the opportunity until it is too late.

 

[SBenson]

FWIW, as per MarkIt data, there was a spike in Short Interest this Monday by a whopping million shares.

I guess they were betting against a successful debt issuance? Really, these shorts are so f'ing dumb.

Add: Boggles my mind. I double checked just now. The news of debt proposal hit the wires on pro tools at 6am on Monday. The deal specifics already came out. 8NC3 - meaning 8 year maturity, non callable for 3 years. 144a for life. The news on Moody's rating came out at 11:30am. You can run a few screens to easily figure out the deal will get priced around 5%. Given how hot the high-yield market is there is no question of the deal not coming through... A short of whopping MILLION shares? Man, these shorts are so dumb. They are a roadkill.

 

[tftf]

There was a forum member here named "tftf", which stood for "tales from the future" according to their Seeking Alfalfa account. This self-proclaimed prophet was completely wrong about numerous product predictions.

Oh really. I wrote several times that it could take until 2020 before the dust is off the Tesla story. I wrote for years that long-range BEV competition and networks will only arrive by 2017-2021 in larger numbers.

The Leaf 2 and the Bolt are just first shots - wait until long-range BEV platforms and CCS/Chademo charging networks at 150kw+ are deployed. Both will happen, there are dozens of long-range BEVs in development (even from former "laggards" such as Toyota or FCA).

Wrong about TSLA stock? I can't be wrong as long as gullible investors pump $ into Tesla. That could take a few more months (in case of an external shock, say a conflict or recession) or even years (if current stock and economic cycle continues).

Wrong about products? Both Hyundai (Ioniq EV refresh) and Honda (new BEV unveil in late 2017, Honda will unveil a new all-electric vehicle this autumn ) will likely have mass-market BEVs with longer range ready by the time the Model3 goes on sale internationally (apparently "late 2018", but likely slipping into 2019 given Tesla's history of missed deadlines).

Meanwhile, Elon Musk keeps pumping hot air and fake deadlines...

Just two examples:

1) FSD promises: Elon, Where is the FSD features you promised?

"6 months definitely" / "FSD within 2 years" (back in 2015)

2) Tesla / Solarcity annual build capacity: Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

"10 GW" or "1GW" - which one is it?

 

[SBenson]

Oh really. I wrote several times that it could take until 2020 before the dust is off the Tesla story. I wrote for years that long-range BEV competition and networks will only arrive by 2017-2021 in larger numbers.

The Leaf 2 and the Bolt are just first shots - wait until long-range BEV platforms and CCS/Chademo charging networks at 150kw+ are deployed. Both will happen, there are dozens of long-range BEVs in development (even from former "laggards" such as Toyota or FCA).

Wrong about TSLA stock? I can't be wrong as long as gullible investors pump $ into Tesla. That could take a few more months (in case of an external shock, say a conflict or recession) or even years (if current stock and economic cycle continues).

Wrong about products? Both Hyundai (Ioniq EV refresh) and Honda (new BEV unveil in late 2017, Honda will unveil a new all-electric vehicle this autumn ) will likely have mass-market BEVs with longer range ready by the time the Model3 goes on sale internationally (apparently "late 2018", but likely slipping into 2019 given Tesla's history of missed deadlines).

Meanwhile, Elon Musk keeps pumping hot air and fake deadlines...

Just two examples:

1) FSD promises: Elon, Where is the FSD features you promised?

"6 months definitely" / "FSD within 2 years" (back in 2015)

2) Tesla / Solarcity annual build capacity: Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

"10 GW" or "1GW" - which one is it?

The only thing I wish for is that folks like you, Cory Johnson, etc are short the stock.

or else you get away with no punishment. That will suck.

In the name of justice, please short the stock.

 

[Tslynk67]

Wow, green, TSLA fighting back against the Macro!!

 

[Tslynk67]

WTF is this for a signature? "Tesla's ramp from niche producer to 1M cars a year and a mass-market Model3 at $35k base is a financial suicide mission. The SCTY merger is the newest implosion catalyst. Your opinion may differ."

Waste of screen space, ignored...

 

[Starno]

Tesla ignoring macro ... I guess the up trend is so strong that even bad macro barely slow TSLA down.