2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[D-egg-O]

Tesla should be scared of itself (and primarily its current CEO) because it has no focus on a few core products and execution.

All the projects listed above your answer will involve huge amounts of cap-ex - and continued fresh sources of outside capital.

One upcoming market downturn or recession and...

a) access to fresh capital will dry up (this can happen very quickly)

b) demand for high-end cars like the S and C will shrink (see what happened back in 2008)

That market downturn or recession will come one day. It's just a matter of when.

You:

Me:

 

[FredTMC]

rough ride today.

Nothing to do with TSLA fortunately

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Not sure if anyone noticed, but the only sector in the green today is Utilities.

I wonder if growth of Powerpacks would lower the volatility of TSLA?

 

[Bobbyducati]

Nothing to do with TSLA fortunately

yeah, hopefully a flat or rebound tomorrow, but im not banking on it. dangerously close to having to roll the puts i wrote this week.

 

[bdy0627]

I wouldn't bet on it either. Should be a pretty low volume Friday. Big opportunity for bears.

 

[sundaymorning]

rough ride today.

This pattern always occurs before an offering. Rumors would swirl around weak demand only to be proven false when Tesla announces the offering are completely sold out and then some. The market will react positively after the fact, shorts are once again screwed.

Tesla reportedly raised $600 million within hours after investor meeting

 

[Jayjs20]

rough ride today.

Sucky day to be super leveraged. Oh, I increased my leverage today. Round numbers are nice.

 

[Tslynk67]

OK, feels bad, but other tech stocks were hammered 3-4%, TSLA did well

 

[bdy0627]

OK, feels bad, but other tech stocks were hammered 3-4%, TSLA did well

Indeed. Our high beta stock did quite well today considering

 

[geneclean55]

This pattern always occurs before an offering. Rumors would swirl around weak demand only to be proven false when Tesla announces the offering are completely sold out and then some. The market will react positively after the fact, shorts are once again screwed.

Tesla reportedly raised $600 million within hours after investor meeting

And also something about nuclear war, I believe I read this morning.

 

[Bgarret]

Order books are closing 4pm today on east coast. West Coast apparently gets till 11am (assume EST) tomorrow.

"pricing thereafter" is the word. I assume that means the pricing comes out by market open tomorrow.

Add: Yeah, it's a bummer. High Yield market moved down about 50bps in yield terms over just a week or so. Oh well...

Maybe I'm misunderstanding. If West Coast gets until 11am Eastern tomorrow, how will they announce pricing before the market opens?

 

[bdy0627]

Sucky day to be super leveraged. Oh, I increased my leverage today. Round numbers are nice.

I added a little today but that's it for me. I did that at the beginning of the last dip when macros went south and it ended up being costly.

 

[SBenson]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding. If West Coast gets until 11am Eastern tomorrow, how will they announce pricing before the market opens?

Yes, you are right, I confused myself. So not sure when pricing will come out... Not sure if they will announce middle of the day or wait till Friday EOD or Monday morning.

 

[elasalle]

I added a couple of March 18 420's and sold Jan 18 450's, for net $11

thinking cool heads will prevail on this NK thingy ..

 

[Lessmog]

I added a couple of March 18 420's and sold Jan 18 450's, for net $11.45

thinking cool heads will prevail on this NK thingy ..

In the event of thermonuclear war, my TSLA shares will probably not be my worst worries. Hope, agreed.

 

[FredTMC]

I added a couple of March 18 420's and sold Jan 18 450's, for net $11

thinking cool heads will prevail on this NK thingy ..

Yeah. China trade embargo and sanctions are key.

Without any oil and other commodities, North Korea can't do anything.

If Kim does initiate war, he'll lose his life. I don't think he wants to die

 

[mmd]

There seems to be a push to sell inventory : According to, SoCal Jimmy, the guy that drove many discounted sales from this forum in 16Q3, it feels like those times are coming back. His OA has leases as low as mid $700 on 90D. Fantastic Tesla 90D Lease deals for someone ready to jump on it now - and then there is also Tesla offering cars directly on Autotrader Tesla Model S CPO Website - Now Live

But but.. Elon put an end to all the discounting after Q3 finished last year! Family and friends of Elon also pay full price. Why will Tesla discount almost brand new cars when it can't keep up with demand? We haven't even hit the middle of the quarter.
All these people grabbing $15k to $26k discounts for a few hundred miles on the odo must be lying FUDsters
Model X 90D Discounted inventory Cars - Great leases < $850 a month

Speaking of bond sales:
I'm confused why Tesla isn't selling shares at $360+. They sold shares at $262 and lower. Why not at $360+? 4-5 million share sale each quarter is not that big a deal. Anyone knows why Tesla is now selling bonds and not shares?

 

[Starno]

Yeah. China trade embargo and sanctions are key.

Without any oil and other commodities, North Korea can't do anything.

If Kim does initiate war, he'll lose his life. I don't think he wants to die

I heard some very insightful infos from people following closely the thing, not the " mainstream " newspaper who only think about sensationalism.

The basic gist of it is that Kim won't initiate a war, he'll simply put enormous pressure until the US basically let them alone, he'll want a signed treaty stating that they can be free of doing their activity without the US " watching " every of their move.

 

[JRP3]

The physics of Lithium batteries are such that you cannot charge them much faster than 1.3-1.8C without damaging them.

Be careful about lumping all lithium cells together. Different chemistries can charge at far higher rates, and within a chemistry there are ways to increase charge acceptance rates to some degree, usually by sacrificing some energy density. NMC chemistry generally charges faster than the NCA Tesla is currently using, LiFePO4 can be faster than both, and LiTiO is capable of a 5 minute charge rate, though the worst energy density of the bunch. One of the reasons Prof Dahn's work is so potentially game changing is he has reportedly drastically increased the cycle life of NMC and he's working on increasing the working voltage, which could bring energy density near or above NCA. This would allow a fast charging long lasting energy dense pack if it all comes together.

 

[JRP3]

Bloomberg talking head said Tesla bond is 3 times over subscribed and could be priced below 5% but expected to be slightly over that.