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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Depends on the person and the wealth manager.

It makes no sense IMO for @Intl Professor who had the foresight to start buying TSLA at $30 to keep a wealth manager who has been fighting him every step on the way!

Actually, I started buying at around 26 and then again at around 17.50, but now our overall purchase price averages $72.53 and if you neglect the 10 shares awarded because of a disastrous purchase of SCTY at $84! it becomes $66.36. And I took the GTAT bath too! So our record has some holes too.

I'm 81, my wife 41 and less than two years ago (shortly after my mother died at 99 and her mother, previously, at 98) I fainted for a fraction of a second and plowed into our garage. Pacemaker implanted four days later. Personal information on person, and the manager advised my Mom and late Sister for years. Absolutely trustworthy.

There's another way to look at this. I'm a teacher at heart and whatever the profession, even president of the United States, the noblest role is teacher. I'm teaching the wealth manager what my preferences are with considerable help from many of you who know what the HE double-toothpicks you're doing as investors. This time I lucked out, waiting to let him make a mistake after I had warned him about a stock, and then announce I wanted to do something so sequester the funds. When I called him today at 6:30 I found out he wanted to call me after consulting with his brother, the stock brains of their partnership at 6:00 our time. We had a good discussion. I bought fewer shares, agreed to unload some stock, which he has done, and he even offered up one of the pharmas I don't like. That may be next. He wisely counseled me not to take funds from one account as, in his role as wealth manager, he has much more expertise than I.

Since he gave me the old blaw blaw about the mixed views of analysts about Tesla, I politely sent him a subsequent e-mail pointing out there has been so far only one analyst, Andrea James, who fully understood the company, that she is probably the only "civilian" who was escorted through the floor at Fremont, with a link to her. (By the way, she now consults for Tesla after leaving Dougherty, which probably most of you knew.) I piled on with:

"If I were pairing traditional auto analysts with an alternative source of information with some creditability (say, his personal holdings of upwards of $300,000,000 in TSLA), it might be Ron Baron who has been quoted as expecting TSLA to reach a share price of $1,000 in two years. He’s too smart to mention this as a recommendation for a buy, so far as I know, and I don’t think he does. But you might be interested in his recent report. (I have no idea what his rep. as a fund manager is.)

https://www.baronfunds.com/sites/default/files/2Q17_Quarterly_Report_1.PDF

There I learned for the first time “Mary T. Barra, General Motors’ CEO who has been trained as an engineer, has instructed her supply chain to ‘use Tesla suppliers…even if they cost more!’ Her rationale is that despite incurring higher costs to build a car, maintenance and warranty costs will be lower; car safety will be improved; and GM’s reputation will be enhanced.'

You also seemed concerned awhile ago about competition from GM’s Bolt. The way we Tesla fanboys look at it, the proper comparison is whether Tesla’s Model 3 will compete with the BMW 3 series as well as it has the BMW 7 or Mercedes S series. Recent declines in sales of the 3 series imply that will happen. It is pretty clear Tesla counterparts dominate the upper end of the U.S. luxury car market today, if not world-wide. As a vice president of Porsche said a year or so ago, “All of Tesla’s decisions were right.”

I could be wrong, but I believe none of the traditional auto analysts evaluate the market for utility scale battery sales, which are ongoing. That is excusable because there is so far little hard data. But there is some. They also were surprised by the idiocy (audacity?) of plans for the Gigafactory in Nevada, which already produces after two years more lithium-ion batteries than any other factory in the world and is only 30% complete. Tesla is now talking about duplicates elsewhere in the world (to save on transportation costs).

Also, do traditional car analysts know why the Model 3 has a backward facing camera into the passenger compartment? Is it to assist in drowse alerts (already a technology in some cars today) in conjunction with what Musk calls “autopilot” or is it for taxis or for people like my wife who might moonlight her car as a self-driving Uber on autopilot when Tesla Internet, which debuts next year, after self-driving cars become a legal reality? (Is it a feature designed to catch litterers or vandals or Illegal activities like drug dealing or a safety feature against assault?)

I don’t know for sure, but you never know what visions may become reality."

When someone like Mitch or many others I could mention but don't want to leave anyone out, sneezes, or even sniffles, about investing and a whole host of other subjects, OT or not, listen and learn as I try to.

There's a lot of ammo here to teach wealth managers.

Sermon for the day, dearly beloveds. (I can't believe Hillary said, "deplorables!" Z minus for teaching.)

Sorry for the length, but it kept me off the streets for a bit. Now my wife is home from school and I have to make some rice, ur, lice, ur ligh, ur whatever she said.:) (She claims in Thai "we don't pronounce the consonants at the end of words" and so she tries to improve my English each day.):D

Edit (much later): Typo--Re, Andrea James, escorted through the floor where battery packs are assembled.
 
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The estimates I'm reading here for year-end prices are too low.

I think there's a price point (nobody knows exactly what level but I estimate at ~$450-500) that could accelerate short covering.

It will depend on how quickly Tesla ramps up Model 3 production in the coming months.
Ok, but what you are saying is that when the stock rises 30 - 45%, short covering could accelerate. That's a ways up. Possibly next spring or summer. These days it seems we are seeing more longs jump out than shorts, which makes some sense since we are up pretty close to ATH. This just seems like an odd time to start talking about a short squeeze again.
 
Ok, but what you are saying is that when the stock rises 30 - 45%, short covering could accelerate. That's a ways up. Possibly next spring or summer. These days it seems we are seeing more longs jump out than shorts, which makes some sense since we are up pretty close to ATH. This just seems like an odd time to start talking about a short squeeze again.

Let's see how it plays out.
 
Short squeeze wont happen when everybody and their cats expect it.
It happens when too many are caught ill prepared for reality.

Cats are really smart though. Smarter than dogs. Still, there is no short squeeze coming anymore than there are dividends coming next year. Or the year after that. Or the year after that...
 
The estimates I'm reading here for year-end prices are too low.

I think there's a price point (nobody knows exactly what level but I estimate at ~$450-500) that could accelerate short covering.

It will depend on how quickly Tesla ramps up Model 3 production in the coming months.


Agreed, I think 450 is definitely in the ballpark if no macro catastrophe happen (I think nothing will happen, too much is social media and news hype), and that M3 ramp happens exactly like Elon wrote in his tweets.

However if it misses, we could finish the year under 350 ...

On the same token, if everything goes smooth (favorable macro + perfect ramp + nice unexpected surprise (like FSD capabilities outperforming expectations, Semi concept blowing competition out of the water...), 550-600 could be possible.
 
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  1. TSLA is going to be pretty flat for approximately the next 3-4 months.
Edit Addition:
Fixed typo, changed 5 to 4 and added approximately.​
I would be totally fine with that since I've got a few more dollars getting ready to deploy over the next 6 to 8 weeks
However I highly doubt it
I think it'll take off to $400+ within the next few weeks at most
I'm acting against my own best interests by stating that because I'd love to buy more shares at current prices before the stock takes off but I highly doubt I'll get a chance. Just because the stock is acting poorly lately means nothing
All it takes is a single big up day to change everything and both longs and shorts will stampede to get in the stock
I really don't care I'll buy this sucker at $400+ if I have to because I firmly believe that this stock will go up 10 to 20 times from here over the next five years
Eventually this will be a $500B to $1000 B market cap so sometime over the next 5 years or so you'll likely see a $3000 to $6000 SP so what difference does it make whether I buy it at $340 or $450
This stock will be the single biggest wealth creator for shareholders over the next several years
Rest is conversation
 
I would be totally fine with that since I've got a few more dollars getting ready to deploy over the next 6 to 8 weeks
However I highly doubt it
I think it'll take off to $400+ within the next few weeks at most
I'm acting against my own best interests by stating that because I'd love to buy more shares at current prices before the stock takes off but I highly doubt I'll get a chance. Just because the stock is acting poorly lately means nothing
All it takes is a single big up day to change everything and both longs and shorts will stampede to get in the stock
I really don't care I'll buy this sucker at $400+ if I have to because I firmly believe that this stock will go up 10 to 20 times from here over the next five years
Eventually this will be a $500B to $1000 B market cap so sometime over the next 5 years or so you'll likely see a $3000 to $6000 SP so what difference does it make whether I buy it at $340 or $450
This stock will be the single biggest wealth creator for shareholders over the next several years
Rest is conversation


5-7 years minimum though, i think...
 
5-7 years minimum though, i think...
Probably So. really have no clue so your estimate is probably better than my blind guess but I believe in George Soros' theory of reflexivity and combine that with the exponential growth that Tesla is on the verge to experience and you have an explosive combination of multi year parabolic SP growth curve in the making
I've made A few dollars in the markets but none of it was made by accurate predictions
Almost all of it was made by lucky guesses
I totally believe that it's better to be lucky than to be smart
And I'm a lucky guy
 
Congratulations! Couple of questions to satisfy my curiosity.
- What did you name it?
- Which seat configuration did you choose? 5 seater, 6 seater, old 7 seater, or new 7 seater?

When SP reaches 500, we too will get an X.
Our car is named something business related, so for hopeful anonymity I'll decline to answer. We got the six seater with all captain seats and the vegan leather white interior? I really like the model, no complaints thus far. The frunk is a bit hard to close and that's about it!
 
Our car is named something business related, so for hopeful anonymity I'll decline to answer. We got the six seater with all captain seats and the vegan leather white interior? I really like the model, no complaints thus far. The frunk is a bit hard to close and that's about it!
Right. Next one will be a Model S and then we've got three M3s reserved as well
It's not a perfect car but it's like driving in a freaking space ship cockpit
Certainly an upgrade over my 2009 Honda Civic
 
The last time I purchased TSLA was 16 months ago, at under $250. The wealth manager went nuts then as recently when I wanted to sell Jazz. Does anyone here think we shall see $250 again short of a very devastating earthquake or untimely heart attack? My hope is this purchase at $340 is the new bottom.
$250 is not in the cards unless the stock splits 3:1 which ain't gonna happen
This is the bottom
 
You should fire your wealth manager
Wealth managers in general are super conservative idiots who are totally dispensable. Unlike lawyers or doctors or CPAs who add value and are totally necessary these so called wealth managers detract value and help ensure that your wealth curve growth stays flat
Of course there are exceptions like the guy who manages Bill Gates' wealth but in general wealth managers are toxic to your wealth
 
Whats clear is that TT out kicked his coverage big time. For those who are not America football fans, that means he is a lucky man.[/QUOTE
Familiar with the reference- but feel he probably would disagree
Right. Next one will be a Model S and then we've got three M3s reserved as well
It's not a perfect car but it's like driving in a freaking space ship cockpit
Certainly an upgrade over my 2009 Honda Civic
I disagree. It's pretty close to perfect. I wouldn't change anything except autonomous driving now. I love the white seating and everything else. The frunk is the only thing... I find it stunning. Now I'm getting to see the volume of Tesla's around though utilizing our local services and am seeing them everyday showing me the popularity and viability is stronger than I realized. Saw a gorgeous matte black S today and would love to get that colour down the road. TT was trying to figure out how to play with charts this AM in the car, and I am a little afraid to show him!!!
 
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