2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Zhelko Dimic]

...
On the other hand, if you're looking to get back in or add, the only reason to expect a quick return back up is if the Q3 delivery numbers are good. It appears that there is more risk at this point for further drop than there is likelihood of a rapid rise back up. If the stock gets support at the 100 MA and then is choppy for a few weeks, there is no need to jump back in given the risk.
What this means for me is that I am likely to convert shorter term J18 leverage to J19 DITM LEAPs. If we then end up dropping to the 200 MA, I'll leverage those to J18s again. If we rise from here, the DITM LEAPS, while nowhere near as good as J18s, will still perform well.

As soon as you came to conclusion like this, market will turn around on a dime .
Remember that market is trying to hurt max number of participants
I _think_ I will be buying small over-leveraging stake around $345-$346 tomorrow, if it gets there, with stop loss around $335. I don't have clear strategy for what to do if it goes up, I should probably buy...

 

[GoTslaGo]

this has been my chart for the last month:

View attachment 249805

I'm with @Navin on this one (see his earlier post with the arrows).

The trend is your friend. Looking at the chart... where is the trend?

 

[Alketi]

Very interesting dynamics currently at play with Tesla...

This past week we had negative news from the Jeffries downgrade as well as the Solar City tax penalty. At everyone's favorite site, Seeking Alpha, the bears are celebrating like it's New Year's Eve.

POSITIVE

We know there's news coming later this week in Australia.

We know there will be a massive event the end of next month in Hawthorne.

We know there will be future Gigafactory announcements (before year end).

We know Tesla is moving a massive amount of S/X in Q3.

NEGATIVE

Unsure of actual Model 3 volumes to date. VIN numbers would seem to place them well behind 1,500 for September

Possible breaking news (nonsense) of Model 3's missing Wi-Fi and FM radios.

-----------

I'm normally not a short term trader, but if the stock reacts negatively early in the week (to the FM radio nonsense or some other non-event) then the positive news I outlined over the next 30 days is setting it up for a major rebound.

Is anyone playing these events, or considering such?

 

[madodel]

Please PM me too! I would love to be teached in how to make even more money, thanks.

Sounds like we will see the birth of "Navin University". Learn how to get rich quick. "Not an advice"

 

[bdy0627]

As soon as you came to conclusion like this, market will turn around on a dime .
Remember that market is trying to hurt max number of participants
I _think_ I will be buying small over-leveraging stake around $345-$346 tomorrow, if it gets there, with stop loss around $335. I don't have clear strategy for what to do if it goes up, I should probably buy...

Yes, that last part can be challenging when you exit. I've been there too. I've found for me, it's easier not to go all or nothing and instead employ more moderate moves based on my guesses about the stock movement. However, I'm not entirely successful at doing even that.

 

[myusername]

I'm with @Navin on this one (see his earlier post with the arrows).

The trend is your friend. Looking at the chart... where is the trend?

to each there own... i prefer unbelievable accuracy and simplicity over looking good and sounding cool.

 

[D-egg-O]

Reminder for this coming week... expect the shorts/bears to pile on news about the competition beating Tesla to the the electric semi market. NACV is this coming week and Cummins will be showcasing the AEOS. I'm sure Daimler will be showcasing the eCanter.

 

[myusername]

Reminder for this coming week... expect the shorts/bears to pile on news about the competition beating Tesla to the the electric semi market. NACV is this coming week and Cummins will be showcasing the AEOS. I'm sure Daimler will be showcasing the eCanter.

I think your logic suggests that if shorts didn't exist, neither would competition.

 

[AlMc]

Very interesting dynamics currently at play with Tesla...

This past week we had negative news from the Jeffries downgrade as well as the Solar City tax penalty. At everyone's favorite site, Seeking Alpha, the bears are celebrating like it's New Year's Eve.

POSITIVE

We know there's news coming later this week in Australia.

We know there will be a massive event the end of next month in Hawthorne.

We know there will be future Gigafactory announcements (before year end).

We know Tesla is moving a massive amount of S/X in Q3.

NEGATIVE

Unsure of actual Model 3 volumes to date. VIN numbers would seem to place them well behind 1,500 for September

Possible breaking news (nonsense) of Model 3's missing Wi-Fi and FM radios.

-----------

I'm normally not a short term trader, but if the stock reacts negatively early in the week (to the FM radio nonsense or some other non-event) then the positive news I outlined over the next 30 days is setting it up for a major rebound.

Is anyone playing these events, or considering such?

Core shares intact. Protective Puts (Sept 28) 350/330s in place. My plan: (not advice, just answering your question/keeping discussion going): If we see a large drop in the AM (>$10). I will be selling those Puts and buying a couple J19 300 Leap calls and *maybe* some early Nov $370-400 calls as lotto type tickets for potential Oct delivery numbers (early Oct); Semi + reveal late Oct; Q3 ER early November.

Disclaimer: This $ is NOT core money. It is trading money. Not touching core shares. It is $ I do not want to lose but can afford to lose.
If you are doing any option trading. Trade carefully (that is advice)

 

[kbM3]

Very interesting dynamics currently at play with Tesla...
NEGATIVE

Unsure of actual Model 3 volumes to date. VIN numbers would seem to place them well behind 1,500 for September

Possible breaking news (nonsense) of Model 3's missing Wi-Fi and FM radios.

-----------

I'm normally not a short term trader, but if the stock reacts negatively early in the week (to the FM radio nonsense or some other non-event) then the positive news I outlined over the next 30 days is setting it up for a major rebound.

Is anyone playing these events, or considering such?

I don't think Elon meant 1500 delivered in Sept. In his statement, the 30 for July were deliveries but the 20,000 in Dec. was a monthly production rate.

The figures for Aug. and Sept. were ambiguous because they were sandwiched in between. However, Elon nearly always talks in terms of production rates, so this is my guess.

 

[TrendTrader007]

No cause for despair
SP should find excellent support right here at 50 day plus top of triangle
Even if it goes lower to 100 day no big deal
SP is extremely bullish long term
Short term is harder to predict
I'll continue to stay superlong despite weekly loss of well over $0.002

 

[FredTMC]

Very interesting dynamics currently at play with Tesla...

This past week we had negative news from the Jeffries downgrade as well as the Solar City tax penalty. At everyone's favorite site, Seeking Alpha, the bears are celebrating like it's New Year's Eve.

POSITIVE

We know there's news coming later this week in Australia.

We know there will be a massive event the end of next month in Hawthorne.

We know there will be future Gigafactory announcements (before year end).

We know Tesla is moving a massive amount of S/X in Q3.

NEGATIVE

Unsure of actual Model 3 volumes to date. VIN numbers would seem to place them well behind 1,500 for September

Possible breaking news (nonsense) of Model 3's missing Wi-Fi and FM radios.

-----------

I'm normally not a short term trader, but if the stock reacts negatively early in the week (to the FM radio nonsense or some other non-event) then the positive news I outlined over the next 30 days is setting it up for a major rebound.

Is anyone playing these events, or considering such?

News by Oct 3rd on Q3 total deliveries and likely an update on Model 3 production

 

[FredTMC]

I don't think Elon meant 1500 delivered in Sept. In his statement, the 30 for July were deliveries but the 20,000 in Dec. was a monthly production rate.

The figures for Aug. and Sept. were ambiguous because they were sandwiched in between. However, Elon nearly always talks in terms of production rates, so this is my guess.

FYI.

My understanding is the Model 3 "pilot line" can build over a hundred cars a month. This was the basis for Elons 150 estimate in August

Sometime in September the General assembly line was supposed to come online and gradually ramp production.

After the General assembly line is producing cars they will probably shut down the "pilot line" IMO

 

[bdy0627]

Wild guess but I think the general assembly line coming online would prompt a tweet from EM.

 

[elasalle]

Tesla plans big battery party, still waiting on Victoria tender
The above also mentions a "Victoria" tender - details of which were in this link Victoria seeks to build country’s biggest grid-scale battery storage


Also, No M3's means Model S cannibalization is at 0% . Expecting Strong quarterly as well (1st week of Oct, might be next Sun/Mon) ...

 

[bdy0627]

Very interesting dynamics currently at play with Tesla...

This past week we had negative news from the Jeffries downgrade as well as the Solar City tax penalty. At everyone's favorite site, Seeking Alpha, the bears are celebrating like it's New Year's Eve.

POSITIVE

We know there's news coming later this week in Australia.

We know there will be a massive event the end of next month in Hawthorne.

We know there will be future Gigafactory announcements (before year end).

We know Tesla is moving a massive amount of S/X in Q3.

NEGATIVE

Unsure of actual Model 3 volumes to date. VIN numbers would seem to place them well behind 1,500 for September

Possible breaking news (nonsense) of Model 3's missing Wi-Fi and FM radios.

-----------

I'm normally not a short term trader, but if the stock reacts negatively early in the week (to the FM radio nonsense or some other non-event) then the positive news I outlined over the next 30 days is setting it up for a major rebound.

Is anyone playing these events, or considering such?

How do we know Tesla is moving a massive amount of S/X?

 

[FredTMC]

How do we know Tesla is moving a massive amount of S/X?

Two data points

Last EC Elon said they've had an uptick in orders for MS/MX post M3 launch event.

EV-CPO inventory levels aren't high. Nationally in the US there is currently ~650 Inventory cars. That's it. Not much

Lastly I think that Tesla will hit their delivery guidance. Just my general sense of things. I've never seen Elon so confident as he was on the last earnings call

 

[DragonWatch]

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't someone try this game of Jeffries before? I have stuck in my mind, without fact, that someone else made the same play of "after finding some numbers I correct my thinking down" hill from here.

Maybe someone here has a better recall than me, though I have not read anything yet.

I mean come on! I use MS Excel tracking my money, stocks, kids (not really ~ only two) and whatever. On two separate occasions I found 100 shares missing and the other I found $30K missing ~ both to my advantage. But, I did not broadcast it ~ what do I look like a fool?

Does this guy have access to numbers we do not? Have we seen what numbers he had before? What numbers does he have now that he did not have before? During the same period did any other math wizards change their forecasts? Did he fire the guy that forgot the numbers? Or, did the guy that forgot the numbers need a pay raise and this was a sure bet to pay him off?

 

[DragonWatch]

The timing is like a well functioning straw, it. . .

SolarCity 30M bad news

Sell off Friday spooked a lot

What if Elon told former SolarCity big guy to sell off stock to rectify bad behavior?

In the military I was assigned to survey a blown jeep engine. After reviewing all the paperwork and interviewing the people concerned, I concluded the driver failed to ensure oil levels had been maintained and documented. Therefore I recommend soldier lose up to three months pay as compensation for the damage to the government. We could only deduct three months pay from enlisted, but an officer could be charged for all the damage.

In my perfect world, that would be my desired outcome

 

[KLC13]

News by Oct 3rd on Q3 total deliveries and likely an update on Model 3 production

Anyone doing the tracking for S&X deliveries? We are at that time of the quarter again...