2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[myusername]

If by "Flat" you mean going up and down stock vise, but steady aprox 10billion short position value.. then sure.

The shorts have a limit.. when sp rise, they have to cover to stay around 10billion short.

Edit: answer to myusenames white lies..

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest

your debating against facts.

 

[Navin]

$$$

 

[ValueAnalyst]

OH BABY!!! OH BABY!!! OH BABY!!!

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Richgoogol]

Losing steam..

 

[EinSV]

OH BABY!!! OH BABY!!! OH BABY!!!

View attachment 249922

Elon Musk on Twitter

Please stop double posting. Also, this is six days old.

 

[Todd Burch]

Losing steam..

Cheer up Debbie

 

[Starno]

The down trend is macro related.

 

[Lump]

"Tripping Chowder" is back providing in-depth analysis for investors
This Tesla (TSLA) Model 3 Video is a 'Must Watch' - Global Equities Research

 

[bdy0627]

Wow, rough macro day. Shorts don't need to do much today.

 

[zdriver]

Some dark pool selling this morning, but nothing like Friday. ~net 50k sold. Algos sold open immediately, retracing that buy spike into close, but then reversed and were net buyers ever since. +20k at the high of the day, still about +10k net right now.

 

[Yggdrasill]

There has been no talk so far about EV incentives going away anytime soon as far as I know.

Last we heard was 2020 I think.To early to say anything about it the latest election results will have any effect on the incentives. (added vat is the biggest one I think).

We have to wait until we see which new government constallation we end up with.. but from the last one, which will mostly continue, they concluded with keeping current incentives until 2020 or so I think.

Edit: Found this one, Regjeringen vil øke avgiften på elbiler fra 2018
They plan to slowly add road-tax to EVs also. But this will still be lower/similar to fossile fuel cars, so no effect on EV demand IMO. No talk about adding VAT?

Yggdrasil- do you have other info/details?

No. I think we can say with a good degree of accuracy that nothing will happen in 2018. The budget has been approved and they are unlikely to make significant changes.

I would say that 2019 is the earliest that we might see significant changes. But with the Liberal Party in a good position politically, I have my doubts we would see any unfavourable EV policies without also seeing some equally unfavourable fossil car policies (to maintain the relative economic advantage of going electric). And that's not something I think the Progress Party would be on board with. So, I think that the favourable EV policies (the status quo) will continue. This is something they can all accept.

Maybe once the share of EV sales hits 75% we might see the Progress Party being willing to start the phase-out of fossil cars for real, and start cranking up the taxes.

 

[bdy0627]

Getting closer to the 100 MA, which is right at $345. I think it may drop below during trading but close at it or a little above. I've got an order in to buy 1 more J19 $300 LEAP if the price continues to drop.

 

[Cobos]

No. I think we can say with a good degree of accuracy that nothing will happen in 2018. The budget has been approved and they are unlikely to make significant changes.

I would say that 2019 is the earliest that we might see significant changes. But with the Liberal Party in a good position politically, I have my doubts we would see any unfavourable EV policies without also seeing some equally unfavourable fossil car policies (to maintain the relative economic advantage of going electric). And that's not something I think the Progress Party would be on board with. So, I think that the favourable EV policies (the status quo) will continue. This is something they can all accept.

Maybe once the share of EV sales hits 75% we might see the Progress Party being willing to start the phase-out of fossil cars for real, and start cranking up the taxes.

I completely agree with Yggdrasil. Since the progress party is the ICE friendly party, they are not happy about increased taxes for ICE and since the politicians want to maintain the differences that means status quo is much easier to agree on. Minor tinkering, sure, big changes before early 2020-ies no.

Cobos

 

[Papafox]

NASDAQ has been in a slow climb in recent minutes. I suspect shorts will try to block the TSLA climb and keep the stock in the red. If they fail and TSLA starts another climb well into the green as we saw this morning, that would be very bullish in my eyes. I think many longs including myself were anticipating a dip into the red before buying and the NASDAQ dip brought that about. That is why the first 10 minutes today had such low volume. The question now is whether the bears have enough ammunition to make this NASDAQ dip a sticky dip.

 

[bdy0627]

NASDAQ has been in a slow climb in recent minutes. I suspect shorts will try to block the TSLA climb and keep the stock in the red. If they fail and TSLA starts another climb well into the green as we saw this morning, that would be very bullish in my eyes. I think many longs including myself were anticipating a dip into the red before buying and the NASDAQ dip brought that about. That is why the first 10 minutes today had such low volume. The question now is whether the bears have enough ammunition to make this NASDAQ dip a sticky dip.

I was thinking the same thing - shorts attempting to block a bounce. It is now within a point of the 100 DMA. I think it will take a lot of effort from the shorts to get it to close below $345. I expect some buying pressure in the late afternoon.

 

[zdriver]

I suspect shorts will try to block the TSLA climb and keep the stock in the red. If they fail and TSLA starts another climb well into the green as we saw this morning, that would be very bullish in my eyes. I think many longs including myself were anticipating a dip into the red before buying and the NASDAQ dip brought that about. That is why the first 10 minutes today had such low volume. The question now is whether the bears have enough ammunition to make this NASDAQ dip a sticky dip.

Not sure how it'll turn out today, but I'd say that's a fair call. See a pattern? (cover, short, cover, short...)

 

[Snapdragon III]

Not sure how it'll turn out today, but I'd say that's a fair call. See a pattern? (cover, short, cover, short...)
View attachment 249944

Is there a link available to a page that might explain what the various elements of these charts you post represent? I always look at them and nod my head, but other than the dark blue line, which appears to be the share price, I have no idea what any of the other data on the chart represents, or how to interpret it. I feel like I am missing out on something.

 

[Richgoogol]

We are basically bad to square one..SP of beginning of the month...

 

[zdriver]

Is there a link available to a page that might explain what the various elements of these charts you post represent? I always look at them and nod my head, but other than the dark blue line, which appears to be the share price, I have no idea what any of the other data on the chart represents, or how to interpret it. I feel like I am missing out on something.

The most recent chart I posted is from an application that tries to identify trades made by institutions. In this case, we're likely looking at an institution day trading TSLA. The spikes up late in the day represent covering of ~30k shares, the spikes down, shorting. Buyers are very passive since Thursday, not many new bids being added to the order book, so it's easy for someone with a few tens of millions to push TSLA around and make a few (hundred thousand) bucks.

Latest update -

 

[esk8mw]

In what has to be a first, I made a correct decision on a short term TSLA trade. Bought Oct calls at Friday's close and sold them this morning on the temporary spike for a nice profit. I'd be down bigly if I held.

I also sold my J19 calls @ 380. What is the world coming to?

Looking to reenter my long-dated calls and can't decide if I should wait out this dip a bit more or try to hold on for the J20s. Going to sit on just core shares for now...