2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[geneclean55]

The 100 MA, has been a rock for months. An-intra day drop below is probably a lower-risk entry signal that many traders keep an eye out for that contributes to the solidity.
Not a huge day trader but might have to try this strategy if it arises.

 

[myusername]

Good thoughts. Keep in mind that as tesla rolls around it’s 100 MDA - It’s on oversold conditions - so they should give us some comfort that bottom could be near.

oversold?... what?... because it dropped one day?... this stock climbed from $180 to $390 in a year... the RSI was pinned over 70 for a month!... RSI is 45... and more recently it went from $342 to $388 in a week... want to explain what metric you're referring to when declaring oversold?

 

[Runarbt]

oversold?... what?... because it dropped one day?... this stock climbed from $180 to $390 in a year... the RSI was pinned over 70 for a month!... RSI is 45... and more recently it went from $342 to $388 in a week... want to explain what metric you're referring to when declaring oversold?

Droppen _one_ day? Have you followed the stock at all?

It has dropped a whole 4 days in a row - by $10 - $1 - $7 - $15 - total $34 in 4 days, or almost 10%.

From $385 - close to ATH to $351. No negative news or anything..

Edit:
Reply to "myusername" - which I among other have blocked.. but I just had to reply to his claim that it has only dropped one day, at it is not oversold. Sorry to introduce "noise" on the thread by entertaining trolls.

 

[geneclean55]

So, to close the loop on my delivery saga, I finally did have it Saturday. I’ll post more when I have a chance to take pictures (did not even get a chance to do any at the SC!). Car is now going to Exotic to be wrapped so will definitely post some pics of that on return!

Tyson’s was slammed catching up from the delays. It appears a lot of cars were hung up coming across the country the last week or so, some in Chicago, some in Alabama. I was there at 4:00 and I think they had three deliveries for that slot.

East coast M3 deliveries occurring around about now?

 

[AlMc]

East coast M3 deliveries occurring around about now?

Hopefully. I was at my local (Devon, PA.) Service Center on Friday and there were no model 3s to be seen. (And I did look...extensively)

 

[myusername]

Droppen _one_ day? Have you followed the stock at all?

It has dropped a whole 4 days in a row - by $10 - $1 - $7 - $15 - total $34 in 4 days, or almost 10%.

From $385 - close to ATH to $351. No negative news or anything..

Edit:
Reply to "myusername" - which I among other have blocked.. but I just had to reply to his claim that it has only dropped one day, at it is not oversold. Sorry to introduce "noise" on the thread by entertaining trolls.

fine... 2 days. -$1 and -$7 is noise.

where are you guys crying "almost 10%" when the stock shoots up?... this simply reverted an equal rise just a week ago... so, did you post about how ridiculous that was?

again... by what metric are you declaring oversold?... are you suggesting when the stock goes up 10% in days and then down 10% in days it's oversold?... if so, you're spoiled with TSLA price movements.

 

[vgrinshpun]

BTW, this is exactly the upper part of triangle that I drew several weeks ago and referred to today as well. The difference is that I drew my line using open/close daily prices rather than intraday highs. Based on this I still believe TSLA will test $350 either today or Monday. If TSLA finds support there, I will be buying.

I really do not have a clue what TSLA will do on Monday, but inspired by my good guesswork on Friday, I am going to opine nevertheless.

I think that we have a pretty well established (pink) symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, so I continue to look on SP movements in this context. We had a clear failed breakout, thwarted by the bear attack which brought us right to the upper support line of the symmetrical triangle which on Friday, coincidentally, met up with the support line of the extension of the regression channel TSLA followed 8/21 - 9/11 (light blue). This, BTW, was the basis of my successful call on Friday.

So I think that Monday TSLA will test the support line of the pink triangle again. If this support line stands, I think that TSLA will go into the (brown) wedge, eventually successfully testing $390-ies, most likely coincidental with some good news - either Q3 deliveries (just to make sure I do not believe that we can make a call on that - so just hypothetical), or Semi event, or ER call.

If TSLA is not able to hold the (pink) triangle support line on Monday, I think that SMA(100) might not offer much support either, and the bottom line of the pink triangle will quickly come into play...

***Not an advice from the low ranking member of the Asylum for delusional***

 

[anticitizen13.7]

where are you guys crying "almost 10%" when the stock shoots up?... this simply reverted an equal rise just a week ago... so, did you post about how ridiculous that was?

It is unrealistic at best and naive at worst to expect people on a Tesla fan site to react negatively to a rise in stock price.

Wallstreetbets - "It's like 4chan found a bloomberg terminal" • r/wallstreetbets is more along the lines of what you want in a community... as long as you can stomach the hilariously politically incorrect commentary. Serious people and liberals probably should avoid.

 

[myusername]

It is unrealistic at best and naive at worst to expect people on a Tesla fan site to react negatively to a rise in stock price.

Wallstreetbets - "It's like 4chan found a bloomberg terminal" • r/wallstreetbets is more along the lines of what you want in a community... as long as you can stomach the hilariously politically incorrect commentary. Serious people and liberals probably should avoid.

fair point.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Well I do not have a clue on the short term SP movement, as


I really do not have a clue what TSLA will do on Monday, but inspired by my good guesswork on Friday, I am going to opine nevertheless.

I think that we have a pretty well established (pink) symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, so I continue to look on SP movements in this context. We had a clear failed breakout, thwarted by the bear attack which brought us right to the upper support line of the symmetrical triangle which on Friday, coincidentally, met up with the support line of the extension of the regression channel TSLA followed 8/21 - 9/11 (light blue). This, BTW, was the basis of my successful call on Friday.

So I think that Monday TSLA will test the support line of the pink triangle again. If this support line stands, I think that TSLA will go into the (brown) wedge, eventually successfully testing $390-ies, most likely coincidental with some good news - either Q3 deliveries (just to make sure I do not believe that we can make a call on that - so just hypothetical), or Semi event, or ER call.

If TSLA is not able to hold the (pink) triangle support line on Monday, I think that SMA(100) might not offer much support either, and the bottom line of the pink triangle will quickly come into play...

***Not an advice from the low ranking member of the Asylum for delusional***

View attachment 249770

Wow... just realized that myusername' trendline is more optimistic than yours! He's following the brown support line on your chart. This is from several days back (the 12th?):

Your pink lines (same day):

 

[vgrinshpun]

The unicorn posts will follow in
3
2
1...

 

[Mike Smith]

Well I do not have a clue on the short term SP movement, as


I really do not have a clue what TSLA will do on Monday, but inspired by my good guesswork on Friday, I am going to opine nevertheless.

I think that we have a pretty well established (pink) symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, so I continue to look on SP movements in this context. We had a clear failed breakout, thwarted by the bear attack which brought us right to the upper support line of the symmetrical triangle which on Friday, coincidentally, met up with the support line of the extension of the regression channel TSLA followed 8/21 - 9/11 (light blue). This, BTW, was the basis of my successful call on Friday.

So I think that Monday TSLA will test the support line of the pink triangle again. If this support line stands, I think that TSLA will go into the (brown) wedge, eventually successfully testing $390-ies, most likely coincidental with some good news - either Q3 deliveries (just to make sure I do not believe that we can make a call on that - so just hypothetical), or Semi event, or ER call.

If TSLA is not able to hold the (pink) triangle support line on Monday, I think that SMA(100) might not offer much support either, and the bottom line of the pink triangle will quickly come into play...

***Not an advice from the low ranking member of the Asylum for delusional***

View attachment 249770

That was a pretty big, panicky selloff last week for not much reason. In fact the only real news we got was that China is going to ban ICE cars and probably drop the JV for EV manufacturing requirement. Weekends dissipate baseless panic, and it seems very likely we'll get an oversold bounce Monday morning. I don't think we break below the 50dma and surely not the 100dma until and unless we get bad MS/X deliveries and/or reduced M3 guidance.

 

[Intl Professor]

I worry about Mitch's expectation the low would be 315 in September because he is truly prescient most of the time . I thought that was based on expectation the usual games with debt renewal but now that has passed. I haven't heard from him about this recently.

My guess, which is a wish fulfillment, the low will be $340.25 or higher as that was my last purchase. My track record on a yearly basis is terrible, so not an advice. (Penultimate purchase was $250 in early April 2016 right after M3 first reveal.) But if you wait long enough....

My FOB (feel of bones-you know we oldsters have rhumatize) is we will hit more than one ATH by end of year, and highest will be nearest the end.

Mumble, mumble, slurp slurp. (Just more drollful drool from an old fool.)

 

[Navin]

Myusername - PM later in the week. Will teach you how to look at a chart and make money. Time to leave the rat race / small money of being a paid short.

 

[Wenche]

Myusername - PM later in the week. Will teach you how to look at a chart and make money. Time to leave the rat race / small money of being a paid short.

Please PM me too! I would love to be teached in how to make even more money, thanks.

 

[bdy0627]

Well I do not have a clue on the short term SP movement, as


I really do not have a clue what TSLA will do on Monday, but inspired by my good guesswork on Friday, I am going to opine nevertheless.

I think that we have a pretty well established (pink) symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, so I continue to look on SP movements in this context. We had a clear failed breakout, thwarted by the bear attack which brought us right to the upper support line of the symmetrical triangle which on Friday, coincidentally, met up with the support line of the extension of the regression channel TSLA followed 8/21 - 9/11 (light blue). This, BTW, was the basis of my successful call on Friday.

So I think that Monday TSLA will test the support line of the pink triangle again. If this support line stands, I think that TSLA will go into the (brown) wedge, eventually successfully testing $390-ies, most likely coincidental with some good news - either Q3 deliveries (just to make sure I do not believe that we can make a call on that - so just hypothetical), or Semi event, or ER call.

If TSLA is not able to hold the (pink) triangle support line on Monday, I think that SMA(100) might not offer much support either, and the bottom line of the pink triangle will quickly come into play...

***Not an advice from the low ranking member of the Asylum for delusional***

View attachment 249770

So with the brown trendline nearly matching up with the 100 DMA, there should be a lot of support just below us. The default expectation would be a bounce there. If not, you would expect there to be a reason for that support not holding. Shorts who follow TA would know this support level and would be starting to consider covering some of their position and booking profits on this dip, seeing that a bounce is possible or even probable. A furious short attack tomorrow morning could fuel a rapid drop through the trendline/100 DMA but the stock has shown resilience with the ability to bounce back up before close. The bottom line of the pink triangle isn't that far below. TSLA is very capable of dropping there quickly but then longs are almost certain to see that as a place they want to add. If that happens, shorts will quickly start to cover, amplifying the rebound. I'm not sure what I will do tomorrow and when that's the case, I've found it's often best to do nothing.

 

[myusername]

Wow... just realized that myusername' trendline is more optimistic than yours! He's following the brown support line on your chart. This is from several days back (the 12th?):

View attachment 249778

Your pink lines (same day):

View attachment 249779

this has been my chart for the last month:

 

[vgrinshpun]

So with the brown trendline nearly matching up with the 100 DMA, there should be a lot of support just below us. The default expectation would be a bounce there. If not, you would expect there to be a reason for that support not holding. Shorts who follow TA would know this support level and would be starting to consider covering some of their position and booking profits on this dip, seeing that a bounce is possible or even probable. A furious short attack tomorrow morning could fuel a rapid drop through the trendline/100 DMA but the stock has shown resilience with the ability to bounce back up before close. The bottom line of the pink triangle isn't that far below. TSLA is very capable of dropping there quickly but then longs are almost certain to see that as a place they want to add. If that happens, shorts will quickly start to cover, amplifying the rebound. I'm not sure what I will do tomorrow and when that's the case, I've found it's often best to do nothing.

I generally agree with above - my expectation is that pink support line will be tested tomorrow, but will hold. However, given ferocity of the current bear attack, I do believe that there is possibility of this support being broken, in which case it will look pretty ominous for longs. My plan is to watch for the confirmation that pink support line holds, in which case my feel is that the most likely scenario is TSLA following the brown wedge until resolving to the upside.

If you remember, this brown wedge was mentioned in CNBC video I linked couple of days back. The chart guy (Carter) outlined two scenario's, one being very close to my pink triangle, another - similar to the brown triangle.

All in all, if pink line hold tomorrow, and then TSLA can follow the brown wedge, things will look pretty good - set for another, "real" breakout.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Myusername - PM later in the week. Will teach you how to look at a chart and make money. Time to leave the rat race / small money of being a paid short.

BTW, I would also love to make money *just* by looking at the chart.

Trading is so last century, and at times emotionally exhausting...

 

[generalenthu]

ES and NQ opening flat discounting the north Korea nonsense