2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[CyberDutchie]

Third attempt at 240. If/when it breaks through, what would be the next resistance level?

I'm still holding Jan 20 '17 240's and debating whether to hold them till Friday. Or sell today/tomorrow for $2-$3...

 

[1kEE]

Third attempt at 240. If/when it breaks through, what would be the next resistance level?

I'm still holding Jan 20 '17 240's and debating whether to hold them till Friday. Or sell today/tomorrow for $2-$3...

Honestly, I think 240 will be a tough nut to crack this week. And Fri is not the optimal day for that.

What you have is all time value right now and holding till Fri is an all-or-nothing bet on it being over 240.

My recommendation is place sell orders at 10% under today or yesterday's peak, and tweak them from there hoping the SP hits 239 again soon, and sells execute.

Or am I too conservative? BTW if I wasn't as conservative the last month, my net worth would have doubled.... and I was tempted, trust me.

 

[racer26]

Honestly, I think 240 will be a tough nut to crack this week. And Fri is not the optimal day for that.

What you have is all time value right now and holding till Fri is an all-or-nothing bet on it being over 240.

My recommendation is place sell orders at 10% under today or yesterday's peak, and tweak them from there hoping the SP hits 239 again soon, and sells execute.

Or am I too conservative? BTW if I wasn't as conservative the last month, my net worth would have doubled.... and I was tempted, trust me.

Eugh. I don't know what to say.

The lower bounding line of the trend from early Dec intersects 240 roughly on Friday. Tough call. I would say to bail while there is still some theta on your side.

 

[1kEE]

I'm holding some NVDA Jan-27 110s and that is annoying. It's a matter of take a 75% loss now or just let it run down to zero while hoping for a 1 in 25 chance it turns around fast enough to make a difference.

This was a "dead cat bounce" trade that I would have done well on had I not waited a day too long.

 

[rolosrevenge]

I'm starting to think about predicting tomorrow morning's and rest of the week's SP movements... here's the drivers I'm seeing:

Marco:
Worldwide markets down today:
View attachment 210909
Trump day Friday and jitters associated with that.
Earnings season starting, I don't have a read on that either way. Due to recent run-up expectations maybe high?

Rolo

 

[CyberDutchie]

Eugh. I don't know what to say.

The lower bounding line of the trend from early Dec intersects 240 roughly on Friday. Tough call. I would say to bail while there is still some theta on your side.

Sold half at $2 earlier today. I had already given up on these a few weeks ago, then this week suddenly it looked like a miracle and maybe they will turn green after all.

I may wait for tomorrow to decide what to do with the other half.

 

[ricardocabesa]

Sold half at $2 earlier today. I had already given up on these a few weeks ago, then this week suddenly it looked like a miracle and maybe they will turn green after all.

I may wait for tomorrow to decide what to do with the other half.

Money in your pocket-take it and move on.

 

[ricardocabesa]

There are so many impatient "investors/market players" here. You're rarely going to buy at the absolute low and sell at the absolute high,whether long or short term-try to work that into your "strategy" or whatever you call it. .But this thread occasionally has a nugget of useful info.

 

[3Victoria]

InsideEVs reports Tesla got 1st and 3rd for 2016 sales: Tesla Takes #1 & #3 Spots In 2016 Full Year EV Sales Rank For U.S.

 

[1kEE]

There are so many impatient "investors/market players" here. But this thread occasionally has a nugget of useful info.

You are correct that this is becoming the place where the short term traders come to vent their frustrations!

I'm guilty of this for sure.

This is the "daily" SP thread and yeah, the day traders will congregate here.

Btw I'm long-term long and very happy with my long term holding, but I do enjoy the short and medium term gambles too.

 

[geneclean55]

NFLX earnings today. Maybe a beat will bode well for other tech stocks tomorrow.

 

[dakh]

Same dilemma here with 240's expiring. Unloaded at 1.80 for a nice 90-something % loss just so that they don't become 1 cent in the money on the last minute Friday and cause hassle.

 

[1kEE]

Same dilemma here with 240's expiring. Unloaded at 1.80 for a nice 90-something % loss just so that they don't become 1 cent in the money on the last minute Friday and cause hassle.

I feel for ya, it's just like my NVDA Jan-27 110s. That's how ops run. At 90% loss I'd be tempted to just call it a 100% loss and hope for luck in the next few days, if it's play money...

I think the decision should be based on how much the little remaining value effects you in the big picture. If the dollar amount means something to you, exit soon and optimize the exit. If it's small enough that you can laugh about it, ride it out and hope for a miracle.

I think the practical approach is just optimize the exit and make it up with another trade. TSLA will treat you well in the long term.

 

[ricardocabesa]

You are correct that this is becoming the place where the short term traders come to vent their frustrations!

I'm guilty of this for sure.

This is the "daily" SP thread and yeah, the day traders will congregate here.

Btw I'm long-term long and very happy with my long term holding, but I do enjoy the short and medium term gambles too.

I edited the post you referenced to include,"You're rarely going to buy at the absolute low and sell at the absolute high,whether long or short term-try to work that into your "strategy" or whatever you call it".

 

[Tenable]

Does anyone have fidelity short numbers by chance?

 

[Crowded Mind]

Does anyone have fidelity short numbers by chance?

I don't have history but it is showing 307k at 1.75% for me right now.

 

[Tenable]

I'm curious about the draw down to see if we have been fighting profit taking or short manipulation. IB is showing 306k @ 2.09%

 

[Papafox]

I'm curious about the draw down to see if we have been fighting profit taking or short manipulation. IB is showing 306k @ 2.09%

My guess is that we continue to have a mixed bag of shorts who are selling vs. those who are covering. The drop in interest rate at Fidelity suggests net covering because of the 2.0% to 1.75% drop. On the other hand, the increase at IB from 2.0% to 2.09% implies no net covering at that property. Most significantly, we don't see the organized shorting activity (mandatory morning dip, capping, toboggan run into afternoon closing). Overall, the shorts are just as unsure as us longs on how long the uptrend will continue in the short run.

 

[racer26]

My guess is that we continue to have a mixed bag of shorts who are selling vs. those who are covering. The drop in interest rate at Fidelity suggests net covering because of the 2.0% to 1.75% drop. On the other hand, the increase at IB from 2.0% to 2.09% implies no net covering at that property. Most significantly, we don't see the organized shorting activity (mandatory morning dip, capping, toboggan run into afternoon closing). Overall, the shorts are just as unsure as us longs on how long the uptrend will continue in the short run.

At least this time (unlike the trend we followed from August->November) us longs are on the winning side and we're happy to ride it as long as it continues.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

BTW nice chart.​