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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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He Who Sells What Isn't His'n
Must Buy Back or Go to Pris'n

Leaving outside this discussion all forms of options investors, in my experience it is only the rash, overly-bold* short-seller who thinks he can refrain from capitulating when ATH's force margin calls...and doubles down.

He can cover by anteing up more cash - either with fresh funds or by flushing other babies down the drain. But truly the only course of action available to him is to

Be A Shipmate Good & True
Grab that Life Vest Before It's Grabbed From You

and cover at $X before having to cover at $X+Y.

*Amongst Alaskan bush pilots, there are
  • Old pilots, and there are
  • Bold pilots
But there are no old, bold pilots. Same in Shortsville.
 
Well, that's an interesting question. I'm looking into the mechanics of margin calls. If -- and this is a big if, because I really don't know what I'm talking about here -- there are a lot of margin calls which will be issued *overnight* against short-sellers, then we're going to have a huge bump tomorrow morning as many of the shorts who were margin-called get out.

OK, here's a start:
Understanding Margin Accounts, Why Brokers Do What They Do | FINRA.org

I'm thinking this is analog of situation I described last night, FB breakaway in July 2013. I expect similar mechanics
FB 30.JPG
FB today.JPG
 
Already trading up in after-hours. Gee-zus. Bid's back up to 298.90.... (and now it's back down. I think someone didn't get as many shares as they wanted during the regular session because that was a bid with large volume.)

OK, the first 5 minutes of extended hours were very busy. It seems to have calmed down now to the usual not-much-trading, with a steady ask price of 298.90 (and slowly dropping) and bids consistently above 298.52.

Next market action will be from Frankfurt at 3 AM EDT... (or is it 2AM? I'm confused by the time zones and opening times)
 
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I wish I knew what a squeeze looks like. Could it be...

Well, a squeeze takes weeks to unroll so... what we saw could well be the beginning of one. You have to have a spark.

  • For the last 3 years we filled the powder keg
  • Last sept we lit the fuse but there was some SCTY condensation all over everything and the fuse went out
  • Now, the keg is fuller, and the fuse bone dry and caught on sparkly fire.
  • The next week should be interesting.
 
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