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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Yep. Off hand, tough to say if the premium plan (for GEX data) is worth it, but I'm far more aggressive* than I should be (please, listen to the above warnings about options!), so at times it's helped me avoid theta rot on short term calls when high GEX is limiting price movement, as well as know when to back up the truck/crank up leverage when the stars align (low, or especially negative GEX, coupled with active short+ term uptrend).
Only issue is the data is updated after close, so by the time I can get an idea of what has higher probability of happening next, price is already moving.
If you do any swing trading though, the normal ($90/mo) plan can be quite useful for DPI data as a confirmation indicator.


* Definitely worth it if you're going to play with options aggressively enough to make more than the $1k/quarter or so *after taxes* based on the data, but if you do, you probably already know you want it.
If anyone reading this is unsure, the answer is no, and furthermore, please, please read the warnings above on risk with options... I'll admit I've literally lost count of the number of times I've gained and lost my yearly salary in the last 6 months. I still frankly have no idea what I'm doing, but each time it happens, I've at least learned yet another thing to do or not do. It's probably safe to say most of you would consider me even more insane than TT007, but I at least promise the first indication that I've figured out how to be a consistently competent trader will be a Model S. :eek:

For those of you interested in playing with high risk calls, etc (anything <2018 IMO), I'd advise starting with a fixed amount of cash that you consider lost, gone, never coming back, and never, ever replenishing it. That will teach you about capital preservation, especially when you realize how much work it is to recover from a 50%+ loss (hint, it takes a 100%+ gain!) Additionally, I strongly advise avoiding weeklies if you can't day trade. While I've made 70% gains in 5 minutes on a Friday, I've also done the opposite more than enough times to know how fast a weekly call can go from "paid for sqzme!" to "oops, lost a week's work in trading gains..."
Last bit of advice - if you ever wake up one day and $3k of short term calls are suddenly up $20k, do yourself a favor and immediately sell them, and transfer that $20k out to your savings account. I can attest nothing good ever comes from leaving that money in your account until you know what you're doing...

Good point on not participating in weeklies unless one is really comfortable day trading stock. That can be crazy and frustrating enough, but trading short term options is way more intense. I can average a slight gain day trading stock but my short term options game is, well, training I pay for.

Zdriver, do you work a day job and trade? I switch between contact work and day trading and trying to do both simultaneously is pretty bad usually.
 
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Well, he did he explicitly mention energy when he said that Tesla was much bigger than cars. I think he didn't want to harp on the electric stuff because he felt it was more than his skeptical interviewers could comprehend. Any thinking person realizes that in the autonomous shared-mobility future he (Jonas) believes in, ICE powertrains don't make any economic sense.
No he didn't. He said bigger than cars and specified AI and the (inflated IMO) value of the miles with full autonomy.
 
My answers/responses/opinions in bold

So if I were to understand this right, a Jan 19 call at 100 strike for 241 is going to be the same as buying the market price - $100 per share. Yes, assuming you use a limit order and "fish" for the best fill. Except now that the $241 premium is going to go down each day so it is a race between TSLA increasing in value and me losing premium from time? Nope - that's the reason for DITM, no time value - it only loses value when TSLA decreases in value. Your description is, however, accurate for OTM ($350+ strikes, as of today).

Do you mind doing a quick illustration of when you would convert this to shares? ASAP, upon news of a large earthquake near Fremont or Sparks. Also, when/how would you roll this particular leap into next year? Typically a couple weeks to a month after the new LEAPs come out in November, at the earliest. Few months after November at the latest, IMO.

Where the financial trouble starts is when Jan 19 is close and the share price is less than 341? Mostly when Jan 19 is close enough you can't wait for the price to recover

Thanks ZDriver. So based on the proposed strategy, its practically the same as owning equity shares except you need to do something by the expiration date? And due to the nature of options, its just either magnified gains/loses?

So the way you roll the LEAP is to just sell your contracts and then buy the new contracts?

What happens when JAN19 is close and you are down on your options? You execute the shares and take whatever loss you ate on the premium?

Thanks again.
 
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Thanks ZDriver. So based on the proposed strategy, its practically the same as owning equity shares except you need to do something by the expiration date? And due to the nature of options, its just either magnified gains/loses?

So the way you roll the LEAP is to just sell your contracts and then buy the new contracts?

What happens when JAN19 is close and you are down on your options? You execute the shares and take whatever loss you ate on the premium?

TSLA Trading Strategies
And use this calculator to answer quite a few of your questions:
Long call calculator: Purchase call options
 
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Excellent and detailed commentary. Thank you.



4.) I like selling covered calls but having all my calls so far hit ITM, its teaching me not to sell calls against TSLA. Only money I have ever lost is either selling too early or trying to buy back my own shares. :D



I think for a LEAP contract, I would probably max out at 1-2. That's only so much capital I can risk for leverage. Really feel safer with 75% of TSLA holdings based on equity.

I have enough shares now where this seems like a worthwhile endeavor. But everytime I try to dive in, SP goes nuts.
 
Mitch's response says it best.

Good point on not participating in weeklies unless one is really comfortable day trading stock. That can be crazy and frustrating enough, but trading short term options is way more intense. I can average a slight gain day trading stock but my short term options game is, well, training I pay for.

Zdriver, do you work a day job and trade? I switch between contact work and day trading and trying to do both simultaneously is pretty bad usually.

Yeah, *nix sysadmin. I use 2x 27" 4k monitors, thinkorswim and rdesktop window for HFTAlert's Accumulator software on one, work stuff on the other.
Work efficiency... suffers. Usually means I'm making up for it at night. (like now!)
End goal someday is to become consistently competent enough to replace my salary after building enough savings to cover expenses for a few years as a safety net. Who knows if I'll ever achieve that, but I'm at least learning more than I ever imagined along the way.

I can thank/blame this guy for getting me into all this. He's impressively good with short term (<2 week) calls, and I've learned a lot by following his buy/sell timing, and observing how he's not afraid to quickly take a loss when things go wrong.
Option_Sniper (@option_snipper) | Twitter

Option_Sniper‏ @option_snipper 4 hours ago
$TSLA Reached my target 342 today on heavy vol w/ bullish reversal play. MACD golden cross strengthening. If break 347, see 355, 362. PT 381 pic.twitter.com/CGMjWkL6g1
DBM_svxUMAE2trK.jpg
 
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I have enough shares now where this seems like a worthwhile endeavor. But everytime I try to dive in, SP goes nuts.

I actually bought 100 shares as part of buy-write strategy at the start of May. I figure I would be able to sell calls against those 100 shares through May 28th and then things would get too volatile.

Nope, volatility hit almost immediately (and macro factors) so those shares were just held.
 
...

I can thank/blame this guy for getting me into all this. He's impressively good with short term (<2 week) calls, and I've learned a lot by following his buy/sell timing, and observing how he's not afraid to quickly take a loss when things go wrong.
Option_Sniper (@option_snipper) | Twitter

...

So, what's your track record by following such technician's reading of the charts if you don't mind sharing? Something like this is definitely risky with options. But gotta agree with the adage "No risk, no rewards." I would definitely do something like this with stocks by selling higher and re-buying when lower to mitigate being burned by the time decay of holding options when TSLA trade sideways.
 
Error? Maybe yes, maybe no.
In a breakout of 2013, it ended up going 10% day after day.
RSI would accommodate quite a bit of a rise from here... Chaikin Oscillator screams new money is coming in...
i would point to the A/D line, and look at the last few 5 trading days, (where it has a major upward thrust of 35 million, some one is doing heavy covering/buying. Is this the "meltup/slow/speedy apocoplyse" WHOOHOOO!!!!
teeny tiny voting pebble
upload_2017-6-1_8-32-20.png
 
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i would point to the A/D line, and look at the last few 5 trading days, (where it has a major upward thrust of 35 million, some one is doing heavy covering/buying. Is this the "meltup/slow/speedy apocoplyse" WHOOHOOO!!!! climing like a "homesick angel"
teeny tiny voting pebble buying 4 more shares today, (or 40 1/10th fractional shares)
View attachment 229204
spiegel bottom, 12/1/2016 to today, A/D positive 104 million (edit) not 97
upload_2017-6-1_8-37-11.png
 
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Thank all of you for this great discussion on options. Besides this, I've also read many on-line articles about them and now think I grasp the concept. Reading the options charts is another matter, they make my head hurt. So for the moment I leave them alone!

In the meantime, I have a buy limit on 315 and a sell limit on 2349 - not sure which one is more likely to trigger...
 
Mitch's response says it best.



Yeah, *nix sysadmin. I use 2x 27" 4k monitors, thinkorswim and rdesktop window for HFTAlert's Accumulator software on one, work stuff on the other.
Work efficiency... suffers. Usually means I'm making up for it at night. (like now!)
End goal someday is to become consistently competent enough to replace my salary after building enough savings to cover expenses for a few years as a safety net. Who knows if I'll ever achieve that, but I'm at least learning more than I ever imagined along the way.

I can thank/blame this guy for getting me into all this. He's impressively good with short term (<2 week) calls, and I've learned a lot by following his buy/sell timing, and observing how he's not afraid to quickly take a loss when things go wrong.
Option_Sniper (@option_snipper) | Twitter


View attachment 229191
Do you know how these values for resistance and the price target are calculated?
 
Thank all of you for this great discussion on options. Besides this, I've also read many on-line articles about them and now think I grasp the concept. Reading the options charts is another matter, they make my head hurt. So for the moment I leave them alone!
Using this site will help you grok the effect of strike and expiry on option prices. It's a link that gets posted here often.
 
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If I had calls that were DITM expiring next week with the intent to exercise, should I just let it run until the last day before executing?

Theta decay won't matter I wouldn't think under this situation but just thought I'd ask the pros for peace of mind.
 
The stock is looking strong.

The potential of Tesla Network and Tesla Energy is incredibly underestimated.

The undervaluation, in my opinion, is so deep that I'm not even looking at the stock price as I do with some of my other holdings.

I'd rather spend my time roaming around downtown San Diego for a possible @DaveT sighting. Maybe I'll see him later this afternoon in Pacific Beach!

Fingers crossed.
 
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