2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[austinEV]

OK. last try at this (deleted 2 posts with really dumb mistakes.) If there are mistakes here I am leaving it, too tired:

Interpolated growth rate, stab and 2017 volume: (this assumes making 20k in Dec, when he probably means 5k/week last week of the year)

 

[SteveG3]

this is "hammer time" stuff, enjoy it everyone : )

 

[oneday]

Only 100 in August. That seems like a super slow ramp.

I'm happy with 30 in July but only 100 in August seems super duper slow

My initial reaction is this is far slower than what I thought.
September 1500 is okay

Maybe Elon is actually going to underpromise and over deliver for once?

 

[RobStark]

Is Tesla going to deliver 20k Model 3s in December or deliver at a rate of 20k/month in the last week in December?

 

[EinSV]

Maybe Elon is actually going to underpromise and over deliver for once?

You mean, kind of like delivering the Model 3 by the "impossible" July 2017 deadline? Maybe something like that?

 

[mejojo]

dude... whatever... SpaceX has nothing to do with Tesla, except that the CEO is shared. Like what exactly should be the delay here?... "oh, sorry about that guys, we just couldn't hit send on those numbers because we planned on typing everything up this afternoon... and then well... you know... some stuff came up."

why does everything about this company have to be so silly?

dude....whatever....

1) Why do you care if someone thinks they are related?

2) Why do you have no sense of humor? OP was clearly mocking the concept.

 

[MitchJi]

Is Tesla going to deliver 20k Model 3s in December or deliver at a rate of 20k/month in the last week in December?

Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec

 

[dc_h]

With about 78,000 cars delivered in 2016 and about 100,000 X/S plus 27,000 3 deliveries, we are on track for over 50% growth. If TE delivers a billion for the year, growth will be about 60% and then over 100% in 2018.

 

[SteveG3]

Is Tesla going to deliver 20k Model 3s in December or deliver at a rate of 20k/month in the last week in December?

Probably ambiguous on purpose so a win feels like a win either way- and, in my view it IS a win either way. Elon does give us the adult answer repeatedly ("S curve, even a few weeks change to schedule can change total deliveries vastly,..." (paraphrasing)). He knows we're out here for the adult answer, but he also knows the bulk of the media will run right past that for the narrative they want to present, thus, ambiguous statements like this are a part of the mix as well.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I was hoping for more. This is basically a "we're on track". Oh well.

 

[NannerAirCraft]

We should also be getting Q2 production/delivery number after hours today right?

 

[Ovulation]

Only 100 in August. That seems like a super slow ramp.

I'm happy with 30 in July but only 100 in August seems super duper slow

My initial reaction is this is far slower than what I thought.
September 1500 is okay

I don't know, 3 cars/day on a new line to shake the gremlins out of the system seems ok for me, but that's just a laymans perspective.

 

[erthquake]

I was hoping for more. This is basically a "we're on track". Oh well.

For us, maybe that's true. For the FUDsters and general media, it's OMG.

 

[WarpedOne]

For the FUDsters and general media, it's OMG.

No worries, they will spin it to look like tesla is failing again.
Lying is no problem, just look at electrek comments, there are alredy shills claiming tesla promised 100k M3 this year.

 

[Navin]

Regardless of what "they" say - the paid shorts on here should get paid time and a half to post today being the third and "squeezed" in between sun and the 4th. Your bosses are in the hamptons and you work hard for your family.

 

[Dagger]

Tesla Model 3 is first place on Google Trends

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Only 100 in August. That seems like a super slow ramp.

I'm happy with 30 in July but only 100 in August seems super duper slow

My initial reaction is this is far slower than what I thought.
September 1500 is okay

Given that sell-side analyst estimates for 2017 average $11-12B, this will lead to positive analyst revisions.

2018 revenue estimates average $20B, which means Tesla will be able to beat 2018 projections EVEN IF GROWTH STOPS IN DECEMBER 2017!

 

[Doit]

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

No worries, they will spin it to look like tesla is failing again.
Lying is no problem, just look at electrek comments, there are alredy shills claiming tesla promised 100k M3 this year.

TSLA is going to fail again and again and again all the way to a $1 Trillion market cap. If they stop failing they will never get there.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I expect Elon's Model 3 guidance to initiate a round of positive analyst revisions, especially for 2018.