Tech sector and TSLA have had an incredible first half of the year. I would be fine with a consolidation/modest pull-back. Means talk of an over-priced market will die down, and new buyers will emerge.
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I'd just add that one thing can put Tesla back on an upward trend :
- Revision of some analysts target price, especially those who didn't think Tesla would deliver much cars this year.
- Revision of some analysts target price, especially those who didn't think Tesla would deliver much cars this year.
I'm guessing GS will do a downward revision based on their "internal" expectation for Model 3 numbers for the year
Well, what a dreadful day - had to sit through several meetings at work without the TSLA SP to keep me distracted, I even resorted to paying attention and adding some salient points
Edited: for utterly awful English and not paying attention
Edited: for utterly awful English and not paying attention
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bdy0627
Active Member
Man, is it ever nearly impossible to predict the TSLA share price movements in the short term. When you think it may go down it goes up and vice versa. Sitting tight for these corrections is usually the way to go but occasionally it turns out to be a bad idea in the intermediate time frame. It's often helpful to change your perspective when these dips happen. Below is the Nasdaq over the last 4 years. Note this recent dip isn't all that much compared with some other corrections. Nothing wrong with buying and holding over these 4 years despite some significant corrections as well as sideways trading for about a year from mid 2015 to mid 2016. If your strategy is buy and hold then you might just consider dollar cost averaging, ignoring the fluctuating price. Same would go for TSLA. You would have done extremely well just holding.
If you want to trade the intermediate timeframe, then you might consider exiting (or deleveraging) when the price drops below the 200 MA but the risk with that approach is losing money with sideways trading. If you are trading, it makes sense not to try to fight the trend. The short term trend, which may become an intermediate trend but hasn't yet, is down. You can certainly be bullish during a down trend but that only makes sense from a long term buy and hold strategy rather than a trading strategy.
This is profit taking at this point rather than investors being fearful. It's not time to "be greedy when others are fearful." I have bought some of these dips thinking they were just a day or two here or there of anomalies rather than a new short term trend. Turns out I was wrong and now wish I had waited. I wasn't getting the deal I thought I was getting on TSLA shares at the time. Again, this is only from the perspective of trading and not long term investing. In the long term, I believe any of these TSLA prices are an incredible opportunity. Problem is, it's kinda fun to trade a little bit too, trying to time some of the moves. With the Nasdaq being schizophrenic and TSLA being pulled in, I'm going to stop buying these dips and sit tight for a bit. I'm not concerned at all about my long term investment but my short and intermediate term calls (bets) are worrying me now. I've started to roll some of them out to get some more time here.
If you want to trade the intermediate timeframe, then you might consider exiting (or deleveraging) when the price drops below the 200 MA but the risk with that approach is losing money with sideways trading. If you are trading, it makes sense not to try to fight the trend. The short term trend, which may become an intermediate trend but hasn't yet, is down. You can certainly be bullish during a down trend but that only makes sense from a long term buy and hold strategy rather than a trading strategy.
This is profit taking at this point rather than investors being fearful. It's not time to "be greedy when others are fearful." I have bought some of these dips thinking they were just a day or two here or there of anomalies rather than a new short term trend. Turns out I was wrong and now wish I had waited. I wasn't getting the deal I thought I was getting on TSLA shares at the time. Again, this is only from the perspective of trading and not long term investing. In the long term, I believe any of these TSLA prices are an incredible opportunity. Problem is, it's kinda fun to trade a little bit too, trying to time some of the moves. With the Nasdaq being schizophrenic and TSLA being pulled in, I'm going to stop buying these dips and sit tight for a bit. I'm not concerned at all about my long term investment but my short and intermediate term calls (bets) are worrying me now. I've started to roll some of them out to get some more time here.
bdy0627
Active Member
For those focused on the very short term, caution advised:
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
jhm
Well-Known Member
Hey, look at where tha middle of the band is. Could that be $370? We've been camping all along! Roll out the pup tents and sleeping bags.
Ameliorate
Member
Sure? 10,000 model 3 run rate is the guidance for end of 2018, if upper end production s/x is 2400 today I figure over 2400 is possible, 2500-2700 maybe? I said closer to 13,000 not Tesla will produce 12,894 cars per week exactly. Nobody said 10,000 3's was the absolute limit either. I've felt since Andrea James joined Tesla investor relations team Elon's publicly stated targets have been beatable, instead of the previous "here's what's possible +10% target".
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
They might wait until Tesla delivers a few thousand M3's.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
With all due respect, I feel these same fundamentals were in place 40 days ago, and SP was $303.
Further, there is almost demanding tone on this forum (not you specifically Willuknight, just using your post to respond) that SP must go up because Model3 is coming. I don't remember this tone in the past...
I will again repeat that perhaps we've seen short term run-up already; like everyone is trying to be first to jump in, many that were here just for a ride are looking to jump out. These are not investors, but traders, swing or momentum, whichever kind. If you're investor, nothing to worry about, but if you're trader, you need to arm yourself with TA and be trying to listen to the market, rather than impose your will to it.
Having said this, i don't know that we're going down - I'm just asking you to consider possibility, to not hurt yourself.
Mother hen mode off now!
First dip was 44 dollars.
Second mini-dip was 36 dollars
Current dip is 34 dollars.
I can see it falling another 5-10 dollars before it jumps again. Calling it now, SP of 420 in September.
The more M3 news and actual physical presence there is, I think the more the chance for SP to go up.
Not sure what details Tesla will share regarding SN1 this Fri ..
so looks like we will be in the doldrums till Jul28th (and things can go either way) and the launch event with 30+ M3 will be the date to watch.
Has anyone heard about when the M3 configurator is gonna be available(with the limited wheel, color choices) .. the sooner the better ..
Not sure what details Tesla will share regarding SN1 this Fri ..
so looks like we will be in the doldrums till Jul28th (and things can go either way) and the launch event with 30+ M3 will be the date to watch.
Has anyone heard about when the M3 configurator is gonna be available(with the limited wheel, color choices) .. the sooner the better ..
I'd rather say "after a 5% increase or decrease". I have to say the difference between buying at $24 and $34 has turned out to be quite significant later...
Yep. My frame of reference is unusual: I must be less risky than most because I do not have an outside income (I cannot afford tail-risk losses) -- but I can tolerate much more volatility than most because I have a lot of assets. This leads to a fair amount of money "on the side" and then the remainder invested in high-volatility stuff.
I've been indulging that emotional desire by selling and rolling deep OTM puts. Keeps me out of trouble by keeping me from trading the stocks. Since the time value decay is always on my side, this is a relatively safe way to indulge the trading desire. If they execute.... well, gotta maintain price discipline (which I have screwed up a couple of times). Thing is you do have to have quite a lot of cash to secure this sort of trading.
Very sound advice and I really appreciate it. Anything I do, I'm looking at a minimum of 1 year buy and hold. Preferably longer. My thoughts are based on the idea of eventual successful execution, although it probably doesn't sound like that because im very obsessed with the current price.
I completely see your point about the fundamentals being in place 40 days ago, but give that Elon is prone to delays, I think the value of confirmed they are on schedule is important.
Sparky
Member
Not an options trader. So, as a rule, I set stop losses of roughly 10-15% of my trading shares at points along the way. So, I had a stop-loss triggered at about $365 and again at $354. My next loss point is for a larger %. I usually wait at least couple weeks before buying back. Now sitting on some cash patiently. But with the M3 reveal approaching, it's hard to sit.
A year ago, I departed from my time-tested approach for protecting my capital and got burned. I was doing well with the initial "down-then-up" thesis but then the Solar City purchase came in and I really had no strategy. Got sloppy, wasn't disciplined and lost a bunch.
Even though I think of myself as a strong long, and M3 news seems to be all good, I'm staying with my sell points. It helps me minimize the emotion especially when dealing with a concept, company, team and philosophy I am so in love with.
BTW, I'm enjoying a good book on emotions and brain research: How Emotions are Made by Lisa Barrett. Really makes me reconsider what feelings/emotions are and are not. And it turns the tables on much of the time-honored science and underpinnings of our legal, financial and military mores. Good read.
A year ago, I departed from my time-tested approach for protecting my capital and got burned. I was doing well with the initial "down-then-up" thesis but then the Solar City purchase came in and I really had no strategy. Got sloppy, wasn't disciplined and lost a bunch.
Even though I think of myself as a strong long, and M3 news seems to be all good, I'm staying with my sell points. It helps me minimize the emotion especially when dealing with a concept, company, team and philosophy I am so in love with.
BTW, I'm enjoying a good book on emotions and brain research: How Emotions are Made by Lisa Barrett. Really makes me reconsider what feelings/emotions are and are not. And it turns the tables on much of the time-honored science and underpinnings of our legal, financial and military mores. Good read.
Great news from Volvo! (and we wish on the M3 forecast )
Business Live: Volvo to drop petrol-only cars - BBC News
9:56
Volvo’s announcement comes hard on the heels of Tesla’s confirmation that it will start deliveries of its first mass-market electric car, the Model 3, at the end of the month.
Elon Musk, Tesla’s founder, said the company was on track to make 200,000 Model 3s a month by December.
The company’s rise has upset the traditional power balance of the American car industry; Tesla, which makes no profits, now has a stock market value of $58bn, nearly one-quarter higher than that of Ford, one of the Detroit giants that has dominated the automotive scene for more than a century.
As well as a shift west – from Detroit to California’s Silicon Valley, where Tesla is based – Volvo’s electric move underlines a shift eastwards, to China.
Geely, Volvo’s Chinese owner, has been quietly pushing ahead with electric car development for more than a decade. Elon Musk’s greatest rival may come from China, rather than closer to home.
Volvo signals end of internal combustion engine
Dominic O'Connell
Business Presenter, BBC Radio 4 Today programme
Posted at 9:55
Volvo has become the first traditional car maker to signal the end of the internal combustion engine by saying all its cars will have an electric motor in three years’ time.
The Chinese-owned, Sweden-based company, best known for its emphasis on driver safety, is not killing petrol and diesel altogether. It will in the future make all electric cars, and a range of hybrids, some of which will still have conventional engines.
) Business Live: Volvo to drop petrol-only cars - BBC News
9:56
Volvo’s announcement comes hard on the heels of Tesla’s confirmation that it will start deliveries of its first mass-market electric car, the Model 3, at the end of the month.
Elon Musk, Tesla’s founder, said the company was on track to make 200,000 Model 3s a month by December.
The company’s rise has upset the traditional power balance of the American car industry; Tesla, which makes no profits, now has a stock market value of $58bn, nearly one-quarter higher than that of Ford, one of the Detroit giants that has dominated the automotive scene for more than a century.
As well as a shift west – from Detroit to California’s Silicon Valley, where Tesla is based – Volvo’s electric move underlines a shift eastwards, to China.
Geely, Volvo’s Chinese owner, has been quietly pushing ahead with electric car development for more than a decade. Elon Musk’s greatest rival may come from China, rather than closer to home.
Volvo signals end of internal combustion engine
Dominic O'Connell
Business Presenter, BBC Radio 4 Today programme
Posted at 9:55
Volvo has become the first traditional car maker to signal the end of the internal combustion engine by saying all its cars will have an electric motor in three years’ time.
The Chinese-owned, Sweden-based company, best known for its emphasis on driver safety, is not killing petrol and diesel altogether. It will in the future make all electric cars, and a range of hybrids, some of which will still have conventional engines.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I'm not at all talking about market spin. The very core of the Tesla brand is delivering innovative and compelling products. It is not spin to have a public event that reveal what this car and hense what the brand is really about. If your going to have such public events, then you need to be sure that the optics are right. Otherwise you undermine the perception about what the car and brand are about.
Would you prefer that Tesla not have public unveilings, handovers and other events? What purpose do you think they serve? Is it important that they are done well? Or is it all just a waste of time, money, and public attention?
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