2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Intl Professor]

Seems that an increasing number of countries is going this way.

God save America!

 

[neroden]

i'm options only... my opinion is that Tesla will not significantly roll out faster than competition over the next 18 months,

Myusername -- Then you have not actually been following the competition. You also haven't properly valued Tesla even if the other "competitors" do roll out cars quickly: the minimum valuation is $180. I worked that out back in 2013 when it looked like the "competitors" were going to move significantly faster than they actually did (and it looked like Tesla would be slower).

 

[A4KTT]

I'll take another $10 off the SP pls.

 

[neroden]

I personally think more than the Model 3 helping it is the decline in QoQ S&X deliveries that is hurting us. This is the first true indication of the demand ceiling on the S&X (cap at 22-25k/quarter).

Since this is also the production ceiling (Musk has stated the lines max out around 100 k / year) I'm not sure it really tells us the demand ceiling. They're calibrating the price so that the demand equals the production. If they had a way of easily expanding production, they'd probably trim the price and demand would go up.

 

[MartinAustin]

Can bears still look at this photo and say the Gigafactory is a huge, useless money pit?

 

[LoveTSLA]

took my second nibble at $311, several waiting and ready limit orders for more bites. if you know anyone that regretted not buying in over the past 6-7 months, this looks like a very nice price to start building a position.

Looks 310 is the bottom.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I converted a portion of my holdings to LEAPs. The valuation does not reflect the upcoming 3x growth next year.

 

[neroden]

Cherrypicked quote that Lebeau probably fished for from an IIHS (non governmental) vs NHTSA (government) guy. Personally, I'd probably drive with a five point harness on the highway if it came standard, but most people wouldn't do this. Also, how an Avalon (or any combustion engine car with an engine block that can penetrate the cabin in a collision) could possibly be considered overall safer than a Tesla Model S based this one test is beyond me. This portion seems relevant:

FWIW, since the one issue in the test was behavior of the driver-side seatbelt, this is almost certainly fixable in design. Expect it to be fixed in an upcoming year.

 

[larmor]

How appropriate, but... it's bulls feeling the pain!!!



The Model 3 is NOT BEING RELEASED on Friday. We do not even know for sure they will finish off SN#1 on Friday. They might have encountered a snag already. We don't even know if SN#1 is going to be a customer car, they might be keeping one or more of the first production numbers around for testing. We need to stop overbuilding our expectations... like when the Model 3 Owners' Club people published a prediction of thousands of cars being in the launch event.

If big brand auto maker announces an Ev for the mass-market to start in the next three to four years the market loses its mind. In one day Tesla release its first production model 3 for the mass Market and is two weeks ahead of schedule in a product that is all about volume. Someone really wants in at a lower price point. Just sayin'

 

[D-egg-O]

 

[neroden]

It's a bear pile on with the crash report news, I expect further bleeding today.

The reruns of articles about stuff which isn't current *definitely* feels like a bear raid. Let's see whether they get out of their short positions during the raid. Ihor is reporting lower short interest...

 

[Intl Professor]

Can bears still look at this photo and say the Gigafactory is a huge, useless money pit?

Looks like parking is a problem there already!!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Oil surging. EIA just announced a very large total oil (crude + product) draw.

 

[neroden]

Can bears still look at this photo and say the Gigafactory is a huge, useless money pit?

FWIW, one of the bears already claimed that the Gigafactory was an empty shell and all the cars in the lot were unsold inventory Model S.

They will say anything to convince themselves.

 

[austinEV]

Looking back at the July 3rd report:

"The major factor affecting Tesla’s Q2 deliveries was a severe production shortfall of 100 kWh battery packs, which are made using new technologies on new production lines. The technology challenge grows exponentially with energy density. Until early June, production averaged about 40% below demand. Once this was resolved, June orders and deliveries were strong, ranking as one of the best in Tesla history."

If production averaged about 40% below demand until early June, then where did the remaining batteries go if not to the cars?

Well, there's battery storage. I think that the batteries produced were shifted toward Powerpack systems (i.e. Utility scale production for Australia etc), and I am expecting news soon. It's getting close to 100 days (not sure when the start day was...), yeah?

Why the speculation that cells are being directed away from the cars? It is clear that it is pack assembly issues, not cell allocation.

Oh, hello February 2016.

This is actually way flash crashier than Feb '16. Here is now:

Here is Feb 2016:

In Feb we had a sharp "V" shaped recovery. It was too much too fast, and we had the M3 reveal event at the end of March to look forward to. This time the drop is faster and even more nonsensical. We also have a parallel situation with the M3 handover at the end of the month (delivering ~30 cars at the end of July).

I am looking at this as a gift. Cautiously increasing leverage here. It might go down further but thats ok, I will either hold or leverage harder. I am moving cash and shares to J19's. I don't have confidence that the recovery will be steep so I am not betting the farm on the short term.

My losses in Feb '16 were eye watering. But I made a mint in March '16. That was my best trade ever.

 

[MitchJi]

Can bears still look at this photo and say the Gigafactory is a huge, useless money pit?

Potemkin village.

 

[racer26]

Can bears still look at this photo and say the Gigafactory is a huge, useless money pit?

Definitely still a potemkin village. That's where Tesla parked those 3,000 cars they didn't sell in 2Q just to make it look like its humming.

 

[Starno]

300 dollars : October 15 - December 15 (2017)
400 dollars : February 15 - May 15 (2018)
500 dollars : May 15 - September 15 (2018)
700 dollars : February 15 - May 15 (2019)
1000 dollars : October 15 (2019) - April 15 (2020).

_________

That's my bet, will see how it will play out.
-------
Note that's a pure thinking bet, and that even if I had more money to invest I wouldn't, at that point, act on those.

Well maybe those will be good projections?

This was before the April rally started thus the 300 dollars this far because the path to it seemed hard.

 

[Richgoogol]

Bought 200 shares @311.5 before it shot up to 314..hopefully this is it

 

[D-egg-O]

Why the speculation that cells are being directed away from the cars? It is clear that it is pack assembly issues, not cell allocation.



This is actually way flash crashier than Feb '16. Here is now:

View attachment 234349

Here is Feb 2016: View attachment 234350


In Feb we had a sharp "V" shaped recovery. It was too much too fast, and we had the M3 reveal event at the end of March to look forward to. This time the drop is faster and even more nonsensical. We also have a parallel situation with the M3 handover at the end of the month (delivering ~30 cars at the end of July).

I am looking at this as a gift. Cautiously increasing leverage here. It might go down further but thats ok, I will either hold or leverage harder. I am moving cash and shares to J19's. I don't have confidence that the recovery will be steep so I am not betting the farm on the short term.

My losses in Feb '16 were eye watering. But I made a mint in March '16. That was my best trade ever.

What's the opposite of a short squeeze, a bull stampede?