2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[seabie]

Good point. Meanwhile, the advertising lever is still available to be pulled. Here in Chicagoland there remains a huge number of potential buyers minimally aware of Tesla or electric cars in general. A significant number still have not even heard of Tesla and its cars. Only a minority of people follow the financial news. Of course once the Model 3's are in customers' hands, word-of-mouth advertising should pick up quite significantly.

My experience is similar here in Columbus. I had a Model X for a 24 hour test drive last month and did tons of test rides with friends and family. We also attended all our normal family events / sporting events. I was blown away at how many people had never heard of Tesla or that the cars were fully electric etc... This should change dramatically when Model 3 is out in numbers and everyone knows someone that owns a Tesla.

 

[Curt Renz]

What's your take on what is happening right now? I think it's a mix of correction & overreaction to news tid bits:

- Model S IIHS
- Misreport of GS Demand for S & X
- Model 3 Doubt

At the top for today's trading I would place margin calls. Once those are cleared away, I could expect a significant snap back upward.

 

[D-egg-O]

I decided to take the remaining buying power I had left in my Roth and bought a J19 220 call option.

 

[elasalle]

The only thing nuttier than the drop we've seen the last few days is if the SP would jump right back up to 370 tomorrow. The trigger? A tweet showing SN1 Model 3 rolling down the B-E-A-UTIFUL bamboo floor quality control station. One can dream, right?

Disclaimer: This is all wishful thinking, not all intended to start any rumors.

Same here.
However, the window to buy the dip might be very narrow. There is a chance that we see a tweet with SN1 in all it's glory tomorrow, else prior to the 28th event, some invitations will need to go out regarding launch event.(between now and 28th)

With all the negatives piled on at almost the same time, Earnings might actually be better than expected.

 

[Intl Professor]

We need a "fishy button."

My scatological references sometimes pass (so to speak) through the mod filter. Though I wonder about the epithet, "go fish yourself."

 

[Reciprocity]

I decided to take the remaining buying power I had left in my Roth and bought a J19 220 call option.

First, what does it take to be approved to trade options, I just applied on Fidelity. Second, who is going to teach me how. I will make it worth your while by promising not to hijack your posts on TMC. @Curt Renz lives in Chicagoland, so maybe he wants a free dinner and a ride in a sweet X75D?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Well, if I haven't just gone and bet the farm on my very first ever call - J18 560's, what the hell! I'm mad, I am!

You should be fine if Tesla hits the Model 3 exponential ramp and the super-exponential storage ramp Elon predicted, but next time I would think about the longest dated options if you wanna take the OTM call option risk, which is probably the largest risk you can possibly take in the stock market.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Well, if I haven't just gone and bet the farm on my very first ever call - J18 560's, what the hell! I'm mad, I am!

Not mad. There's another factor which benefits LEAPS (probably more of a factor with J19s):

Interest rates affect LEAPS too, as interest rates go up, the LEAPS go up too. We are all expecting the Fed to slowly raise rates, which should help LEAPS too.

Volatility is the other factor, besides Strike price, Stock price and Time to expiration.

LEAPS® Pricing

 

[tander]

First, what does it take to be approved to trade options, I just applied on Fidelity. Second, how is going to teach me how. I will make it worth your while by promising not to hijack your posts on TMC. @Curt Renz lives in Chicagoland, so maybe he wants a free dinner and a ride in a sweet X75D?

1. not much, just fill out the questionnaire for basic options
2. I would recommend buying a college level investments textbook and teaching yourself, but there are tons of good resources and that's probably overboard, Fidelity probably has some good info things or online things, and CBO has some really good resources, the main thing to remember with options is if stocks are hand tools, options are power tools, you can do a lot more with less, good luck!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Shorts are having a field day while the institutions are sitting on the beach. Very similar to the all out assault on SolarCity when Nevada essentially shut down residential solar after SCTY had gone all-in. The difference here is that TSLA can't be pushed around like that. Any way you slice it the Model 3 is coming out in 10's of thousands before the end of the year and IMO the normal trajectory will re-establish itself. Elon wouldn't be making such bold near term predictions if it weren't so(20k in December).

If you believe in the company and it's products you should be welcoming this dip, buying shares and selling puts. Just my opinion and not advice.

 

[Jayjs20]

Can the price even fall this low without institutions unloading?

 

[Tslynk67]

You should be fine if Tesla hits the Model 3 exponential ramp and the super-exponential storage ramp Elon predicted, but next time I would think about the longest dated options if you wanna take the OTM call option risk, which is probably the largest risk you can possibly take in the stock market.

This was my thinking also. I didn't have enough cash to even buy one share, but I had €200 sitting there doing nothing, so why not?

For these small amounts I don't mind playing around, losing, of course, but most of my interest is in my core common shares - which aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[Curt Renz]

First, what does it take to be approved to trade options, I just applied on Fidelity. Second, who is going to teach me how. I will make it worth your while by promising not to hijack your posts on TMC. @Curt Renz lives in Chicagoland, so maybe he wants a free dinner and a ride in a sweet X75D?

Actually I’m 55 miles by car from downtown Chicago, but still in the six-county Chicagoland. I do not want to encourage options trading. But if you insist on learning, this may be helpful:

During the nineties I daily visited the Chicago Board Options Exchange to interview market makers for my TV show. Twice I took all-day courses in options trading at the CBOE, followed by mock trading in a pit led by Jon Najarian. They were extremely worthwhile, although complimentary for financial journalists.

This link shows a number of education programs provided by the CBOE: Options Education Center - CBOE

However, as always I strongly recommend trading shares and not options. The options market makers are in the business of scalping retail investors. Leveraged losses can be devastating.

 

[graphix25]

Bought another 100 shares at 311. Now have 1000 shares total. Holy cow.

No leverage. No margin. Buy and hold.

I bought 64 shares at 312 to make it a cool 1000 shares total too. Cost average is about 210 a share with buys at 145 through 312 today. One day that 1000 share will be $1m and days like the last few will be a distant memory. No margin, no leverage, buy and hold buffet style. Got to have faith or you can get washed out of hyper growth stocks like Tesla from the crazy volatility. Now bears are in control and having fun playing in the market. Lets see how they are doing 12 months from now when it's clear Model 3 will be a runaway success with the production and sales numbers to back it up.

 

[jhm]

I was actually surprised why US domestic consumption was down in the last couple of weeks, so part of this should be reversal of that. Also, US driving season started last, so this week's report is reflecting that.

It was down last week because it had increased 8% in the week before. I called that channel stuffing too. Y/Y most consumption is actually declining.

 

[D-egg-O]

First, what does it take to be approved to trade options, I just applied on Fidelity. Second, who is going to teach me how. I will make it worth your while by promising not to hijack your posts on TMC. @Curt Renz lives in Chicagoland, so maybe he wants a free dinner and a ride in a sweet X75D?

1. not much, just fill out the questionnaire for basic options
2. I would recommend buying a college level investments textbook and teaching yourself, but there are tons of good resources and that's probably overboard, Fidelity probably has some good info things or online things, and CBO has some really good resources, the main thing to remember with options is if stocks are hand tools, options are power tools, you can do a lot more with less, good luck!

Tander is right regarding no. 1.

For no. 2, it depends on your learning style. I learn by doing. Started selling covered calls first, then learned to roll them over with they were in the money. Then dipped my toes in LEAPs, monthlies and weeklies (yuck!).

I use Schwab, talked to someone about good tools to learn about options. I don't like Schwab's learning tools. They just didn't work for me. The person I spoke to recommended this resource, Options Strategies | Learn To Trade Options - The Options Playbook

 

[Reciprocity]

Actually I’m 55 miles by car from downtown Chicago, but still in the six-county Chicagoland. I do not want to encourage options trading. But if you insist on learning, this may be helpful:

During the nineties I daily visited the Chicago Board Options Exchange to interview market makers for my TV show. Twice I took all-day courses in options trading at the CBOE, followed by mock trading in a pit led by Jon Najarian. They were extremely worthwhile, although complimentary for financial journalists.

This link shows a number of education options provided by the CBOE: Options Education Center - CBOE

However, as always I strongly recommend trading shares and not options. The options market makers are in the business of scalping retail investors. Leverages losses can be devastating.

Thanks Curt, its just great to get a response from folks like you on this board.. it is truly a humbling and educational experience for me. I have no intentions of trading large amounts of options, though I assume you have to commit a fairly large sum to even dabble. Certainly would never do anything without first educating myself and simulating a ton of trades. To me something has to feel almost instinctive before I will feel comfortable risking money on it. I am in no hurry to loose all my money, there is a ton of opportunity over the next decade to learn, but I gotta start somewhere. Its one big advantage of being in places like Chicago and NY and I will definitely check out the CBOE Education Center. I spend to much time learning about crap that wont help me, I want to start focusing on things that will actually benefit me long term and I have always been interested in trading.

Also learning a ton from @jhm in the Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla thread.

 

[DurandalAI]

I know nothing on trading options, but there are plenty of apps that will let you trade options with mock portfolios. Playing with Monopoly money is always the safest way to learn. You don't kick yourself when you lose thousands in fake options, but you might kick yourself when you can't cash in on those monopoly dollars if you do well.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I tried buying one '19 leap at strike $100. They aren't very liquid, but I've had good success buying them with little to no time premium.
While we were around $312 and dipping to $311.4, I had my bid sit firmly at $212.2, offering up to 80c of the premium. That was very rich based on my previous trades (remember, these are deep, deep ITM).

I was surprised my bid didn't get scooped up (it would have been in the past), I concluded (rightly or not) selling pressure isn't great anymore, so I bought few '19 $500 strikes instead, as a lottery ticket. Just my experience

 

[KnowLittle]

If there is institutional selling, we find out in 10 days via a schedule 13 D? Are there institutions that would not need to report? (Assuming >5% holding?)